Before you read on, bear with me when I say this: This isn't going to be one of those overhype, scream-in-your-face posts practically forcing you to accept that winter is still coming, nor is it going to be an ultimate despair-based moan-and-groan tale of how the world will be a sauna for the rest of eternity.
No. This will be a fair-based, tell-it-like-it-is description of how the rest of winter will turn out to be.
FEBRUARY-MARCH
I know I have been proclaiming a cold and snowy February, but this is the first time I am now confident that there will be a cold and snowy pattern coming in.
This is my final prediction. I will not be changing it.
The Pacific North American pattern (PNA) has been in a positive phase for much of the winter- but not correctly matching up with other teleconnections (AO, NAO). As a result, we have not seen the cold and snow. A negative PNA sets up high pressure over the East and a trough in the West- something that has been very common this winter. However, the latest forecasts are calling for a +PNA to develop. A +PNA would result in the opposite of a -PNA.
As we have been seeing, the potential vorticity readings from the North Hemisphere way up by the Arctic Circle have been unstable recently. What I am seeing- and believe is true- is that this potential vorticity will start to be pushed down towards the US as a ridge of sorts sets up. The reason I believe a ridge will set up is because we have seen at least one ridge present in recent weeks up in the Arctic Circle- they just haven't been in proper places to get the storms into the US.
But it's not all in the PNA. It is very much a roll of the dice- certain teleconnections have to combine to make for a certain scenario. With the PNA going positive and the NAO/AO going negative, I think there is at least a chance we see cold and snow.
As for the AO/NAO, take a look at the past several weeks of observation.
We have affixed it with trends.
Just looking at the graphs easily shows how the pattern has changed in the last month. My belief is this: Now that the pattern has changed, I don't believe it will be changing back during February. Now that it has happened (albeit quietly), I just don't find it in the cards for the AO/NAO to spike back into positive territory, and the latest model forecasts even show that it will stay negative in the short term.
People have been trying to use analogues of years to compare to this one in order to figure out what the rest of winter will be like. I think that is just not a good technique this winter. As everyone reading this knows, an incredible amount of defined and undefined records have been set, from temperatures to how many times you shoveled your driveway. That's why I think people have let their guard down.
I have posted about how Tom Skilling (WGN Chicago Meteorologist) has said how winters with comparatively lower snow and warm temps have ended up back-loaded with cold and snow. That is one deal with analogues I am willing to believe. While everyone is comparing analogues with similar things already observed, I think that there is something different that is crucial to these forecasts.
Even though Tom Skilling posted that particular forecast for Chicago, Illinois alone, I think it applies to much of the rest of the East US.
My Thoughts
I believe February will be at least snowier. I think there is not enough evidence to prove otherwise, as we have already seen the pattern change. it has been shown in the AO/NAO and the PNA, among other things. The pattern should get stormier as the +PNA directs storms to a Panhandle Hooker flow and brings strong low pressure systems from the Plains to Great Lakes/Midwest and Ohio Valley.
The reason I focus on the PNA is because my confidence in the AO/NAO being negative (for at least the first week or two of February) is fairly high. A NAO/AO/PNA favorable combo may match up just right to make for a cold and snowy February.
If you have any local questions, you may ask them.
No. This will be a fair-based, tell-it-like-it-is description of how the rest of winter will turn out to be.
FEBRUARY-MARCH
I know I have been proclaiming a cold and snowy February, but this is the first time I am now confident that there will be a cold and snowy pattern coming in.
This is my final prediction. I will not be changing it.
The Pacific North American pattern (PNA) has been in a positive phase for much of the winter- but not correctly matching up with other teleconnections (AO, NAO). As a result, we have not seen the cold and snow. A negative PNA sets up high pressure over the East and a trough in the West- something that has been very common this winter. However, the latest forecasts are calling for a +PNA to develop. A +PNA would result in the opposite of a -PNA.
But it's not all in the PNA. It is very much a roll of the dice- certain teleconnections have to combine to make for a certain scenario. With the PNA going positive and the NAO/AO going negative, I think there is at least a chance we see cold and snow.
As for the AO/NAO, take a look at the past several weeks of observation.
Just looking at the graphs easily shows how the pattern has changed in the last month. My belief is this: Now that the pattern has changed, I don't believe it will be changing back during February. Now that it has happened (albeit quietly), I just don't find it in the cards for the AO/NAO to spike back into positive territory, and the latest model forecasts even show that it will stay negative in the short term.
People have been trying to use analogues of years to compare to this one in order to figure out what the rest of winter will be like. I think that is just not a good technique this winter. As everyone reading this knows, an incredible amount of defined and undefined records have been set, from temperatures to how many times you shoveled your driveway. That's why I think people have let their guard down.
I have posted about how Tom Skilling (WGN Chicago Meteorologist) has said how winters with comparatively lower snow and warm temps have ended up back-loaded with cold and snow. That is one deal with analogues I am willing to believe. While everyone is comparing analogues with similar things already observed, I think that there is something different that is crucial to these forecasts.
Even though Tom Skilling posted that particular forecast for Chicago, Illinois alone, I think it applies to much of the rest of the East US.
My Thoughts
I believe February will be at least snowier. I think there is not enough evidence to prove otherwise, as we have already seen the pattern change. it has been shown in the AO/NAO and the PNA, among other things. The pattern should get stormier as the +PNA directs storms to a Panhandle Hooker flow and brings strong low pressure systems from the Plains to Great Lakes/Midwest and Ohio Valley.
The reason I focus on the PNA is because my confidence in the AO/NAO being negative (for at least the first week or two of February) is fairly high. A NAO/AO/PNA favorable combo may match up just right to make for a cold and snowy February.
If you have any local questions, you may ask them.
22 comments:
Interesting write up.. only problem I see is the assumption of a -NAO.. with current situation with an -AO right now wont develop a couplet with NAO because all the blocking is on the wrong side.. +PNA is not enough we definitively need a strong neg. NAO for anything significant for us in FEB.. and Im just not seeing it.. I hope things change.. for the snowier.. !! Keep Up Da Great Work !!! We appreciate it! DESteve
What will detroit have for the rest of winter
Hello Andrew.Nice update.I read over thoroughly!To my understanding,winter will get stormier to the extent for some more panhandle hook storms which are virtually non-existent this winter,very rare!!So your thinking,the great lakes,midwest,and ohio valley will start seeing some of these storms in the weeks ahead?About the potential storm this coming friday/saturday,is this supposed to be a panhandle hook system?I have a feeling myself we are going to get alot more snowier in ohio considering all the rainfall we are getting now.I recieved another 2" plus this past week.Trulty amazing!!!
DESteve: I can see a strong positive PNA drop a good snowmaker somewhere.
Eddie: Likely some more snow than the first 2 winter months, with temps averaging around normal or above normal.
Mike: If it does happen it will be a Panhandle Hook or a Nor'Easter or just out to sea. The exact details have to be worked out, of course. Yes, the Midwest/Ohio Valley etc. should start seeing some stormier weather sooner rather than later, especially with the help of a raging +PNA.
Mike,
I have been reading your posts for a long time now. Can you please start spelling the word "receive" correctly. I am going out on a limb here and saying you are an adult, so please spell simple words correctly. Also, you continually downgrade Andrew's thoughts and it is very troubling. Just wanted you to be on the other side for once.
Hey Andy.Listen up!!!!!!!!! Who are you too judge people on here!!!!!!! I mispelled a few words wrong,everyone makes mistakes!!!!!!!!!! Also,i do not downgrade Andrew's thought,i have backed him up when people slam him in the ground.Like the other day,someone asked him how old he is,i stuck up for him and told them to not ask those questions because this is not the place for it.Also,how do you know i'm an adult.I'm a teenager for goodness sakes.Adrew please set this guy straight.
Sorry Andy,i mispelled Andrew wrong,i was typing too fast.I thought i would bring that up so you cannot run me in the ground again due to my spelling!!!!!!! By the way ANDY,your the first PERFECT person on here to judge people.Watch who you judge.
This doesn't really matter too much, but Mike I remember you mentioning you were an adult who had experienced many many many snowstorms with newspaper clippings for a couple decades ago. Now all of a sudden you are a teenager. To be really honest, you are probably a young kid judging by how excited you get for storms and how you repeat the exact same questions on post after post after post.
Another person who likes to judge people.Hide behind anonymous.
I wonder why everyone is so excited to see a horrible winter that does nothing but drive higher cost in utilities, the destruction of homes and cars (huge increases in insurance) plus dangerous situations if there are emergencies. You all must have more money than brains. personally a few 3 inches here and there are fine but I don't want blizzards and 24 inch snows. You all need to grow up and quit acting like children who want a day off from school. Think of all the people who have to go to work no matter the weather. And apologies if I spelled anything incorrectly.
Hi to the last anonymous.This ANDY judged me for spelling receive wrong.I'm sure you spelled everything correctly.Take care.
Hi Andy.Why are you picking on Mike.He never ever put down Andrew's forecasting techniques.As for the spelling "RECEIVE" wrong,everyone makes mistakes including yourself!
Everyone, this is for weather. I really don't want to see all of this age nonsense and judging nonsense to keep going on.
Anonymous #2: The exciting thing about meteorology is because of just how extreme phenomena can get. Not at all does anyone here want to see devastation and deaths. I like to see tornadoes, blizzards and floods. Not for the destruction, but for the awesome power the contain.
Andy: Grammar does not matter in my book. I don't think it matters whether he spelled receive wrong. The point still gets across. No need for a big deal.
And for anyone else, Mike Paulocsak does not put down my forecasts or do anything that puts down my blog, so those false accusations can stop.
Andrew positive PNA's lead to a trough in the east. This favors Nor'easters and such. For a Panhandle hook setup, you need a negative PNA
Anonymous: Ah yes- I got caught up in the frenzy of the -AO/-NAO etc.
Thanks for reminding me.
Either way, I could still see somewhat of a potential for a Panhandle Hook if this plays out. But as you said, a +PNA favors a Nor'easter.
I understand you can like blizzards and floods as those aren't usually deadly and they are avoidable. Maybe not tornadoes. I don't live very far from Joplin, MO and May 22, 2011 was awful. The "power they contain" can destroy a whole community and kill people in the hundreds. Sorry just had to mention that. I don't understand how anyone can like tornadoes and I sure hope you don't wish for them to hit ur location, as it can change ur life in a very negative way forever.
I did not mean it like that. But seeing a tornado (minus the deaths and destruction), the power of it is amazing. To clarify, I like tornadoes when they are harmless and not a threat to anyone/thing.
charlotte nc in for some of this\?
Strange as it sounds, we in the science world sort of need a big tornado like the Joplin Missouri one in order to study them and make future forecasts better with a lesser loss of life. I am in no way encouraging or wanting these damaging storms to happen, but when one happens we will be more prepared hopefully for the next one.
Hi Andrew.How does the potential storm look for next weekend?Others are really ramping it up!!
Mike, I am glad to see you are still commenting! I hope people stop being so rude. I think your area is finally going to get snow!
Hi ERN WX.Yeah,i figured why should i let certain people run me off this site because I accidently spelled a word wrong.As for the snowstorm next weekend,it looks pretty interesting for my area in Ohio along with others.
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