Above, we see the 96 hour 500mb forecast from the Ocean Prediction Center, for the North Pacific. There are three storm systems here, all very strong as seen above. They are all going to be in the Bering Sea beginning on December 11, so we'll use that day as the starting date.
Many of you have heard of me mentioning something called the Bering Sea Rule (see the AccuWeather Forums for more info). How it works is, let's say a strong storm system appears in the Bering Sea. Research has shown that there is a 2.5-3 day gap (18-21 days) between a strong storm system in the Bering Sea, and a storm system in the Lower 48.
If we take that day of December 11, and take it out 18-21 days, we find ourselves between the days of December 29 and January 1- the days in the immediate vicinity of New Year's Day. If it takes these three systems a bit more time to move into the Bering Sea, we could see New Year's Day in the middle of this timeframe.
Just imagine what three storm systems in the Bering Sea could correlate to. I'm typing this, imaging what power could emerge if three storms were to merge into an extreme storm system in the Bering Sea. Only time could tell what such an event would mean for the Lower 48.
Andrew
25 comments:
If such an event happens could their be a pattern change for the continuous U.S.? Also if this does come true what is the snowfall prediction?
For what area of the country?
I'm not sure yet. I can only predict if there will be a storm present in the nation during this timeframe.
I'm sorry, but the same areas that have BEEN getting hit is where this will end up... IF it even develops at all. Every time the models indicate a "big" storm, it ends up not working out. Like yesterday for instance, they indicated a huge storm for next weekend for the midwest, now it's pretty much just disappeared off the map. Why don't y'all just wait until 2-3 days before a storm is "supposed" to hit, more than a week out hardly EVER works out right.
Anonymous: I understand your frustration. The good thing about this is that this forecast is not based off of any models. However, it does open up the door for more potential for such a situation to have flaws.
Well Andrew first off I'm one of the winter/snow lovers so I know it's far out(way far out), but knowing that the NAO and AO are SUPPOSED to be forecasted to be negative can you give me your best opinion knowing all the knowledge as of right now where this storm could end up? I live in NJ, and I've been following your posts(great job), and look I'm disappointed about this PNA, but like you said it can be either a west or east based NAO so do you think this could affect the east coast? Also this storm should end up right at the end of December so HOPEFULLY this pattern will change, and the east gets in the action. Thanks a lot!
Andrew this may be too soon to tell, but do you see Iowa or the Midwest pulling out of this drought this Spring? This Fall was a bust and am worried this Winter will be as well.
What are the possbile impacts regionwise? Also what is the chance of this happening (3o%,15% ETC)
I call bluff. There not even going be winter this year in ohio valley or east coast. Just like before it never happens. frankly never will. Enjoy the warm spring like weather for the rest of winter time.
One thing I cannot understand about the models today is how they are not very accurate.I mean come on.Back in the 1980's and 1990's they were way better in predicting long range.One would think with todays more advanced technology,they would predict better then they do.I'm beginning to wonder if whoever is in charge of programming them really knows what they are doing.We all know computers are only as smart as the people operating them.Many may disagree with this statement,but it is the truth!
Not based off models? Are you drunk? The picture you have shown here IS in fact a model. And exactly, MORE FLAWS... so there is NO POINT in even attempting to make any guess even 10 days ahead of time, simply pointless.
The f-ing farmer alminac is more accurate than you guys can be in even a week, so how are you going to sit here and attempt to forecast 3 weeks ahead, or even 10 days ahead? It's all just for hype, I've seen it over and over and over and over again, it is sooooo da*n redundant and ridiculous. You're just like accuweather, which a much more proer name for them is "crappuweather" or "inaccuweather". They are always way off and even have a f-ing 25-day forecast, but yet the fail epicly on a 5 day forecast. Heck, I bet you just regular people could forecast 10x better than most of these so called "meteorologists" who use useless models to forecast. This disgusts me.
Anonymous from NJ: If it comes along the South US, it will run up the coast. If it comes out in the central Plains, it's for the Upper Midwest.
2nd Anonymous: Winter will likely not be a bust, but I'm not confident enough to forecast on the spring. Sorry!
3rd Anonymous: Not sure of the track, so I cannot give regional potentials. Confidence is roughly 30% in the storm happening.
5th Anonymous: I agree with you- the models do have their down sides. That's why you take several runs of several models, average it out, and do your best from there.
4th Anonymous: I call pessimism. Jokes aside, winter will happen, and it is most likely to be centered in the Upper Midwest and Northeast.
6th Anonymous: I am not intoxicated, thank you very much. This is not a model, per se, but a forecast from the OPC. It is equivalent to the SPC's severe weather forecasts- they would also be models under your statement, yet we all know they're not.
7th Anonymous: First off, swearing does NOT enhance your credibility, no matter how many asterisks you use. Second, if I were all for hype, would I still be in business after 2 years with 1.4 million views and counting? And as for your regular people claim, the average joe would have to know 4 years+ of physics, mathematics and technology at a college level to come close to meteorologists' skill. I am sorry this disgusts you, and I offer you the opportunity to forecast for as long as I have, as often as I have, and as in-depth as I have to prove to me your regular person claim. Lastly, thank you for the AccuWeather claim- I appreciate a comparison to such a respected forecasting company.
Andrew why don't you work for the National Weather Service? I bet that they don't even know about the Bering Sea rule. I officially nominate you to work there.
Swearing doesn't enhance credibility... well neiter does TRYING to forecast 3 week ahead of time.
@Randy: Andrew is just a kid. When he gets older he will probably work there. :). Keep up the good work Andrew!
#7 respondse: Yes, you would still be in so called "buisness", just like AccuWeather who is all hype, they've been in buisness a lot longer than you, and counting. The reason you are is because so many people have not yet come across this site, 1.4 million of 315 million isn't that big for 2 years if you are a "trusted" meteorologist. I'm not just trying to put you down here, as I know it seems, but you will end up letting a lot of people down if this does not happen.
Just a kid... THAT explains his low forecast abilities. YOU SUCK!
Anyway, I'm done here, just wasting my time, and so many other people's time. Good luck, I hope your GUESS turns out well!
HEY!!! Just because Andrew is a kid DOES NOT mean that he sucks. I follow his blog HOURLY so that I can see what he has to offer. Andrew is an EXPERT at his craft, and I don't want anybody dissing him!
You guys... please, stop being such assholes, forecasting is extremely difficult and requires a whole lot more intelligence then you might EVER have. Sure, it doesn't always turn out right, as storm systems can suddenly shift throwing a big wrench into the forecast. We can only get most model updates as soon as every 3 hours, not every second. So before you go judging and assuming, take a look at your own misfortunes.
Swearing doesn't increase your credibility…
Can't say I'm offended by all this, I find it pretty sad that someone would go out of their way to put someone else down. To the person who said I suck... OK. Am I supposed to care?
You don't suck, Andrew, whoever posted that is just ignorant.
Andrew you are awesome! You have been right more times than I can count! Keep doing what you're doing because there are far more of us out there that really appreciate your hard work than the ignorant few who don't have a clue about forecasting and what's involved. Hence why they can't forecast for themselves and need to daily check weather stations, blogs etc... Thanks for all the personal forecasting. I know how much time was involved in that! Enjoy your day!
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