tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post1275281043749175057..comments2024-03-13T10:47:17.967-05:00Comments on The Weather Centre: Stratospheric Warming Could be Game Changer; Back-Loaded Winter Still In QuestionAndrewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-58981016838815251602011-12-23T13:56:23.953-06:002011-12-23T13:56:23.953-06:00I agree with you andrew.That is what wish casting ...I agree with you andrew.That is what wish casting is.Hey anonymous,if you don't like paying high heating bills,move to Florida!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Mike Paulocsaknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-16470548144264116832011-12-23T12:58:21.211-06:002011-12-23T12:58:21.211-06:00The AO and NAO are due to major change. It is not ...The AO and NAO are due to major change. It is not wish casting. Wishcasting has to do with models- the stratosphere is what is actually happening.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-74172893444875297712011-12-23T12:52:10.320-06:002011-12-23T12:52:10.320-06:00Keep wishcasting and I'll keep enjoying my low...Keep wishcasting and I'll keep enjoying my low heating bills. God bless the positive AO and NAO!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-55713228858421952522011-12-23T12:13:55.623-06:002011-12-23T12:13:55.623-06:00I encourage you to check out the post on how the p...I encourage you to check out the post on how the pattern change is finally starting. It's coming out at 1:00 pM CST today.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-46227314299164169502011-12-23T11:59:51.058-06:002011-12-23T11:59:51.058-06:00Hi Andrew.It goes hand in hand exactly what your s...Hi Andrew.It goes hand in hand exactly what your saying in this post.Hopefully it happens.It was snowing a few hours ago,but it basically melted as soon as it hit the ground.Ground temperature a bit too warm.Mike Paulocsaknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-66086888417499658212011-12-23T11:30:44.536-06:002011-12-23T11:30:44.536-06:00I am thinking that as well.I am thinking that as well.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-69565317482836286102011-12-23T11:24:13.165-06:002011-12-23T11:24:13.165-06:00Hi Andrew.I just watched my local weather forecast...Hi Andrew.I just watched my local weather forecast,and he mentioned that the weather pattern may become snowier after the new year.Mike Paulocsaknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-61535526397532273252011-12-23T10:16:14.967-06:002011-12-23T10:16:14.967-06:00Anonymous #1: Yes, that is the same post I as ment...Anonymous #1: Yes, that is the same post I as mentioning. But if you want the reasoning, here it is: We failed to compare analysis' at other levels to their forecasts. When that was done, it was determined that the pattern change may actually come in time. We then picked up on the back-loaded winter piece from Tom Skilling in an article.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-58232123189950556092011-12-23T10:08:14.117-06:002011-12-23T10:08:14.117-06:00Hi Andrew. Anonymous #1 here again. I am not ref...Hi Andrew. Anonymous #1 here again. I am not referring to the increased warming when compared to two day's ago post, I am referring to the fact that yesterday, you were saying how the winter pattern change would be too little and too late, and now in your latest update you are on board with a back loaded winter. I am wondering how such a change could have occurred. Thanks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-70005231141081980442011-12-23T10:05:20.168-06:002011-12-23T10:05:20.168-06:00However, Hour 384 is not very reliable at that far...However, Hour 384 is not very reliable at that far out (16 days away).Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-64676180763199860482011-12-23T10:04:56.529-06:002011-12-23T10:04:56.529-06:00The Instantweather maps site is just a site that s...The Instantweather maps site is just a site that shows the models. However, it is one of my favorites, as it is one of the fastest updating model site I know of, and has free ECMWF products.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-21704288522824597432011-12-23T09:06:32.910-06:002011-12-23T09:06:32.910-06:00Good morning Andrew.How accurate is the instantwea...Good morning Andrew.How accurate is the instantweather maps site?The first week on January shows decent snowfall around Ohio at hour 384.Im not too sure if these maps are good to use for forecasting.Are the models you use to predict showing any developement?Mike Paulocsaknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-86627376798920003192011-12-23T08:18:15.232-06:002011-12-23T08:18:15.232-06:00Anonymous #1: Those pictures were of the 30, 50, 7...Anonymous #1: Those pictures were of the 30, 50, 70mb levels. This post is for the 20mb level, which is higher up in the atmosphere and thus more prone to warming.<br /><br />Mike: If anything, this should indeed change the pattern. Merry Christmas to you and your family, Mike.<br /><br />Anonymous #2: I'm going to tell you a little something: Local TV weather people aren't as invested into all these indices and this warming as people like me are. Don't get me wrong, there are some great weather people out there, like Tom Skilling. But i've seen some other TV weather people map the wrong calls on snowstorms too early. So I personally would take that with a grain of salt, unless they have some evidence.<br /><br />AJ: Have a Merry Christmas with your family, AJ. I'm glad I was able to provide such good forecasting for you.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-22280842696791669422011-12-23T08:01:13.948-06:002011-12-23T08:01:13.948-06:00Merry Christmas!!You gave me a great gift this yea...Merry Christmas!!You gave me a great gift this year.GREAT FORECASTING!!!!!AJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09010199001842299089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-20836903601853119892011-12-23T05:30:40.807-06:002011-12-23T05:30:40.807-06:00Hi Andrew, At this point I give up on thinking thi...Hi Andrew, At this point I give up on thinking this whole winter thing will even happen this year. Fact matter is that if we dont have snow by mid January its just not happening this year. Sad but true statement from my local forecaster.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-61312694527792936582011-12-22T23:48:46.600-06:002011-12-22T23:48:46.600-06:00Hello Andrew.Very informative article.Let's ju...Hello Andrew.Very informative article.Let's just hope that this is what's going to change the pattern so the Ohio Valley and east will start seeing snowstorms.Have a merry christmas with your family!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Mike Paulocsaknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-67727196971842181812011-12-22T22:18:06.377-06:002011-12-22T22:18:06.377-06:00What happened to yesterday's post?What happened to yesterday's post?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com