tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post3024810661192611634..comments2024-03-13T10:47:17.967-05:00Comments on The Weather Centre: December 20th Major Snow Event Discussion (Updated 12/14)Andrewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-69786418764021306482011-12-14T18:26:12.763-06:002011-12-14T18:26:12.763-06:00For the record, if you are ever going to use a mod...For the record, if you are ever going to use a model for winter, use the ECMWF.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-47275612121956262892011-12-14T18:25:32.937-06:002011-12-14T18:25:32.937-06:00I realize that this is early. That's why we ba...I realize that this is early. That's why we base this off of ensembles and trends. The ECMWF is getting a handle on a solution that would give the Midwest snow. It's never too early to mention a storm- waiting until the last minute takes all the 'fun' out of forecasting.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-34810551449465864732011-12-14T17:46:49.405-06:002011-12-14T17:46:49.405-06:00Exactly anonymous.It's way,way,way too early.T...Exactly anonymous.It's way,way,way too early.These models are not very accurate this winter.We all better hope that they get better at projecting these storms or we will be in TROUBLE.Like for instance,we might get a huge snowstorm that the models don't forecast.This could happen.Models do not control the weather,only predict it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-9071493047400452412011-12-14T17:27:22.744-06:002011-12-14T17:27:22.744-06:00Way too early for amounts and still too early to d...Way too early for amounts and still too early to determine anything. Just cause this run of European gives you snow, that doesn't mean it will happen. Towards Saturday, I would pay more attention to the models, still too early.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-63060145769554379832011-12-14T17:00:35.767-06:002011-12-14T17:00:35.767-06:00How much will Valparaiso currently get?How much will Valparaiso currently get?AJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09010199001842299089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-14657247656206570252011-12-14T16:53:32.821-06:002011-12-14T16:53:32.821-06:00Mike: Your area might get some snow if the low tra...Mike: Your area might get some snow if the low travels at a strictly WSW direction, possibly along the jet stream. We haven't had time to look at the Christmas Day storm too closely.<br /><br />AJ: The models will still shift. It would be N. IL to S. WI with the heaviest snowfall. ECMWF predicts upwards of 4 inches for them.<br /><br />Eddie: It's certainly possible. The NAO should start a more negative trend soon, with the warming stratosphere and tanking QBO.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-24281306935188625822011-12-14T16:47:20.223-06:002011-12-14T16:47:20.223-06:00And also when do you think the NAO will turn negat...And also when do you think the NAO will turn negative if it doesEddienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-5707386286159269122011-12-14T16:45:36.003-06:002011-12-14T16:45:36.003-06:00Would Detroit get snowWould Detroit get snowEddienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-78579854444669888392011-12-14T16:29:36.632-06:002011-12-14T16:29:36.632-06:00So with the low being over central Illinois I gues...So with the low being over central Illinois I guess that means no snow for the area then? :\Owen12789https://www.blogger.com/profile/16520504427423199808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-72390562984865843182011-12-14T16:22:50.648-06:002011-12-14T16:22:50.648-06:00Were will the heaviest snowfall possibly be right ...Were will the heaviest snowfall possibly be right now?AJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09010199001842299089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-4955470183549584412011-12-14T16:20:49.941-06:002011-12-14T16:20:49.941-06:00So Valparaiso won't get a big one out of this?...So Valparaiso won't get a big one out of this?AJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09010199001842299089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-58647855302209912682011-12-14T16:18:23.658-06:002011-12-14T16:18:23.658-06:00I forgot to mention the Christmas eve or day storm...I forgot to mention the Christmas eve or day storm.Do you still see signs of this on the scope or not?Mike Paulocsaknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-6973057156055016172011-12-14T16:15:44.200-06:002011-12-14T16:15:44.200-06:00Hello Andrew.So this system as of now is basically...Hello Andrew.So this system as of now is basically going to effect the chicago area on northward and northwest of there.I understand that the JET is a huge player where storms will go.This one will pretty much miss my area.Do you see any other heavy hitters in the near future? Also,do you see any signs of a major pattern change or not?Mike Paulocsaknoreply@blogger.com