tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post310723030394190777..comments2024-03-13T10:47:17.967-05:00Comments on The Weather Centre: GFS Seriously Misinterpreting System That Will Produce Weekend Severe WeatherAndrewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-27930811382060724282012-06-06T06:36:46.222-05:002012-06-06T06:36:46.222-05:00Anonymous #3: I checked this morning's GFS, an...Anonymous #3: I checked this morning's GFS, and whie Saturday looks fairly unsupportive, Sunday does look to have 5500+ j/kg of CAPE in eastern ND.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-81416506910001432852012-06-06T01:46:44.500-05:002012-06-06T01:46:44.500-05:00Hey Andrew
I just looked on twisterdata, the syste...Hey Andrew<br />I just looked on twisterdata, the system looks extremely powerful. They show a dynamic-pattern low system with 988mb center. It looks like the cold front is tightly veered and system has many short waves. The system may not be as strong on Saturday but will quickly strengthen overnight and become more dynamic Sunday. Problem however is coverage with GFS instability. The CAPE is mostly shown in the central and southern plains reaching 4500 j/kg. Lifted indices there too reach -12 or -13. The threatened areas have short-lived, barely, or no CAPE as well as little LIs. The CIN will be high with breaks here and there. The magic hodograph is hard to find, but Nebraska on Sunday( I believe, maybe), can have storms as early as 6am due to enough CAPE, buoyancy, strong jet, and a break in CIN nearby. The southern extent could be severe too due to instability available as shown but if the northern extent is as unstable enough as discussed to possibly handle such shear, the capping and dryline can help keep storms seperated and isolated from convergence. Take a look on GFS on twisterdata, I think you'll find it interesting. Take care!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-23856591843967992352012-06-05T19:35:03.418-05:002012-06-05T19:35:03.418-05:00El Nino is making its mark in the tropics!!!!!!!!!...El Nino is making its mark in the tropics!!!!!!!!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-76187222053132683462012-06-05T17:57:35.549-05:002012-06-05T17:57:35.549-05:00ECMWF looks better. I am using that.ECMWF looks better. I am using that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com