tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post3387118769268303779..comments2024-03-13T10:47:17.967-05:00Comments on The Weather Centre: Latest Model Forecast Highlights Derecho ConcernAndrewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-33735847880717841802012-07-24T20:44:31.287-05:002012-07-24T20:44:31.287-05:00Yes Andrew, I realize, however, you cannot use 3 h...Yes Andrew, I realize, however, you cannot use 3 hr precip to look for bow echos. Bow echoes are a product of reflectivity, they show an area of higher intensity rainfall in the shape of a bow. However, this rainfall rate is instantaneous, not lapsed over 3 hrs. In otherwords you are treating an area of precip that takes place over three hours that is shaped like a bow as a bow echo, which is incorrect. I don't know any better way to explain it. In simple terms, to me it seems like you are substituting 3 hr precip in for reflectivity, which you absolutely can not do.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-83295805826644950752012-07-24T19:38:32.139-05:002012-07-24T19:38:32.139-05:00Tstms tend to produce a lot of rain in a little ti...Tstms tend to produce a lot of rain in a little time so that does make sense. Derechoes can be semi predictable because of certain parameters and simulated radar can alert meteorologists to possible formation.ERN WXnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-80575139610755694432012-07-24T17:44:29.985-05:002012-07-24T17:44:29.985-05:00It would not have to be sitting still for 3 hours....It would not have to be sitting still for 3 hours. All weather is made by something in motion, whether it be uneven heating that creates wind, or building clouds that create falling rain, weather is always in motion. What would be the scenario would be the storm putting down that precipitation over a span of three hours as it moves, not showing it stays still. Reflectivity images off models tend to be on the messy side, so I prefer 3 hour precip maps when the opportunity arises.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-394036512591757242012-07-23T22:15:58.497-05:002012-07-23T22:15:58.497-05:00You cannot look at 3 hr precip maps to guess the s...You cannot look at 3 hr precip maps to guess the shape of a bow echo. In order for a bow echo in the particular orientation to produce that rain pattern, the thing would have to be sitting still for 3 hours. This, of course, doesn't happen with now echoes. The image is simply displaying an area where the NAM model believes a heavier storm will track. That is all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com