tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post3779733888474481458..comments2024-03-13T10:47:17.967-05:00Comments on The Weather Centre: Dangerous Severe Weather Outbreak Possible TomorrowAndrewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-5657469067730972352012-03-01T19:21:46.910-06:002012-03-01T19:21:46.910-06:00Joshua: Yes- I based my forecast on the 18z NAM. T...Joshua: Yes- I based my forecast on the 18z NAM. This will be a horrible day for many tomorrow.<br /><br />Anonymous: I use a different system than the SPC. I can't exactly put it into words, but 60% in my eyes is like 60 out of 100- the odds are more favorable, but details have to be worked out to be confident.<br /><br />Reid: I haven't been monitoring the winter aspect as this severe weather has been so back to back. I will try and answer it on this post in a couple days after the severe weather dies down for a bit.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-5927245821755236802012-03-01T18:46:43.266-06:002012-03-01T18:46:43.266-06:00severe weather outbreaks 2 day apart back to back....severe weather outbreaks 2 day apart back to back...This is going to be a stressful spring/summer for many =(<br />Question: Is this weather due to the mild winter everyone had/the pretty darn warm GOM?<br /><br />I was just thinking too, the -PNA is sending the cold air/fronts into the country and the +NAO is providing the warm air to completely dominate the other 1/2 of the country. Right? Thanks, too, Andrew.<br /><br />- ReidAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-70099877625195378482012-03-01T17:37:08.396-06:002012-03-01T17:37:08.396-06:00You do realize that a 60% chance is an extreme hig...You do realize that a 60% chance is an extreme high risk for SPC, right?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-15530861633207252792012-03-01T17:07:09.920-06:002012-03-01T17:07:09.920-06:00Andrew, have you seen the 18z NAM model? It's ...Andrew, have you seen the 18z NAM model? It's showing high EHI values (values over 1) as far north as the Michigan/Ohio border. Highest EHI and low level storm relative helicity is indicated to be located from Cincinnati down southern Kentucky and as far north as Lima, Ohio. If the storm becomes stronger and more negatively tilted than what is currently forecasted, I bet that the tornado threat will extend much farther north than what is anticipated now. (It may not seem like the upper level system is negatively tilted, but on the 500 millibar progs, a well defined negatively wave is shown on the NAM and GFS.Joshua Steinerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17033905155173868759noreply@blogger.com