tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post5096234676111730075..comments2024-03-13T10:47:17.967-05:00Comments on The Weather Centre: Tropical Storm Ernesto 8:30 PM CT ForecastAndrewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-92043211050309638412012-08-05T09:24:35.779-05:002012-08-05T09:24:35.779-05:00Now mdls seem to be pulling it S. My track adjuste...Now mdls seem to be pulling it S. My track adjusted S; not as far as NHC, but close. This one doesn't want to turn N.ERN WXnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-55809375083312778762012-08-04T22:12:37.930-05:002012-08-04T22:12:37.930-05:00I agree with your thoughts. Looking at the dynamic...I agree with your thoughts. Looking at the dynamical models, it would seem likely that my track is on par with forecasts, possibly a bit too far south.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-68357041010189983042012-08-04T21:18:38.711-05:002012-08-04T21:18:38.711-05:00Based upon the mdl bias of keeping troical systems...Based upon the mdl bias of keeping troical systems too far SW, I think we should be prepared for a NE turn. I do like your track because it is NE of the NHC. They failed with the last one, because they have the problem of basing fcsts off of one mdl. Fcstsr's rule of thumb one: never base anything off of one mdl. I learned that one the hard way when I was a rookie fcstr.;;ERN WXnoreply@blogger.com