tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post627048326270917954..comments2024-03-13T10:47:17.967-05:00Comments on The Weather Centre: Long Range Discussion, Concerns About Winter (Part 2)Andrewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-14732707952707483192014-10-22T17:22:14.754-05:002014-10-22T17:22:14.754-05:00Mike: I did not say in this post that I was changi...Mike: I did not say in this post that I was changing, or otherwise shifting my view on my winter forecast. Hence, I am not changing or otherwise changing my view on my winter forecast.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-10311758168022244362014-10-21T23:48:10.075-05:002014-10-21T23:48:10.075-05:00Andrew if you are trying to make your recent winte...Andrew if you are trying to make your recent winter prediction look shaky, you succeeded. Seems you are trying to cover both sides of the coin with your "concerns" posts. Are you backing off your recent winter forecast? If not, why post these after the fact concerns that appear to discredit your recent winter analysis and forecast? <br /><br />MikeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-3087676181831582102014-10-18T23:16:33.284-05:002014-10-18T23:16:33.284-05:00Andrew,
Yes... I think I'm taking a walk on th... Andrew,<br />Yes... I think I'm taking a walk on the dark side getting a feel for it! If it kills off nasty viruses then it will be well worth the walk!! We're goanna need the cold this year... I know that for sure! I'm not saying I'm going to like it but really have to have it, oh,& yes I will complain about it every step of the way! Yep...that's me, bree the complainer!!<br />bree<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-13282195386256895992014-10-18T09:08:48.022-05:002014-10-18T09:08:48.022-05:00IMHO, I think the bad orientation of the -AO/NAO w... IMHO, I think the bad <b>orientation</b> of the -AO/NAO was more to blame then arctic temps. Causing the first trough to flatten prematurely. Just my 2 cents. Ownavillehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01407022003144467005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-52012653156997190322014-10-18T08:48:20.773-05:002014-10-18T08:48:20.773-05:00Isn't a recurving typhoon supposed to cause an... Isn't a recurving typhoon supposed to cause an Aleutian vortex?Ownavillehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01407022003144467005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-63293390385585491952014-10-18T00:19:37.041-05:002014-10-18T00:19:37.041-05:00randyinchamplain commented on this post, but I did...randyinchamplain commented on this post, but I did not publish it as he had included personal information. I've copied the comment, minus the sensitive information below.<br /><br />Andrew, I don't think all is lost, as a matter of fact I still like your official winter forecast. Lets look at the Euro 240hr forecast valid for Oct 27th and initialized at 12z on 10/17.<br /><br />Starting at the 500mb level,looking at the 500mb anomalies.<br /><br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014101712/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png<br /><br />Several things to look at here. I would want to draw your attention to the SW US as well as the SE. The model shows ridging over both areas. My thoughts are that the subtropical jet will not be as strong as some suggest. I'm thinking the SW US will be drier and warm because of it. <br /><br />The other item of great interest to me is higher than average 500mb heights over the pole region, as a matter of fact its very strong. This would suggest warmer temps over the top that the CFS model has been showing. The one thing that bothers me greatly about the CFS is that it's very warm over the top, but really doesn't show any cold air on either side of the pole.<br /><br />This leads me to the 850mb temp anomaly that the Euro is showing for the same time as the 500mb map that I posted above. Does it have any cold air? Look at this. Right where it should be.<br /><br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014101712/ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png<br /><br />Now look at the 500mb heights mslp map. Looks to me like its getting ready to drop the fist real cold shot into the Northern Plains Upper Mississippi Valley area. <br /><br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014101712/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png - See more at: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/10/long-range-discussion-concerns-about_17.html?showComment=1413601018954#c5764034234703163174Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-44083500882663037072014-10-18T00:18:46.690-05:002014-10-18T00:18:46.690-05:00Aaron: The EPO is discussed quite often In the wea...Aaron: The EPO is discussed quite often In the weather world, especially recently, but it may be masked by descriptions such as 'Gulf of Alaska ridging' to mean a negative EPO, or in this case, troughing in the GOA to indicate a +EPO. Right now, the EPO is positive due to the stormy weather south of Alaska. Teleconnection forecasts highlight a continued positive EPO in the future.<br /><br />Bree: That might be the first time to date I've heard you discuss something in favor of a cold winter! Switching to 'the dark side'? ;)Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-57640342347031631742014-10-17T21:56:58.954-05:002014-10-17T21:56:58.954-05:00You know, I have to say maybe it's not so good...You know, I have to say maybe it's not so good that it may not be as cold as last year...because I think we may need it to be in order to kill off the nasty virus Ebola that seems to be posing a threat in the US. I'm not scared about that, but, I'm not dismissing it either. I am now preying we do have as cold of winter as we did last year. <br />We are going to need it, if that virus thrives in warm climates, & I think it does, we need a super cold winter, or at least a semi-cold winter, cold enough to kill it off.<br />bree Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-60161924289755263932014-10-17T19:32:31.941-05:002014-10-17T19:32:31.941-05:00Andrew, what state is the EPO in right now? Last w...Andrew, what state is the EPO in right now? Last winter higher pressures built as a result of the negative EPO, and when the EPO is negative this helps to send cold Siberian air across the North Pole into North America. We all know there is a clockwise circulation around high pressures, and when it's centered in Alaska this drives east Siberian air into NW Canada, so that we have a nearby source region of arctic air available. <br /><br />But now there's troughing over Alaska, so is this just temporary? That's what happened in 2011 when the EPO was positive (along with the NAO and AO) I was just wondering what your take is on the EPO because it is an underrated factor that you never hear much about but is actually very important.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12533252255102900199noreply@blogger.com