tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post647579072755591736..comments2024-03-13T10:47:17.967-05:00Comments on The Weather Centre: 2013 Preliminary Atlantic Hurricane OutlookAndrewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-85002873544938108782013-03-28T15:28:30.137-05:002013-03-28T15:28:30.137-05:00As noted in the hurricane seasons since 1950 with ...As noted in the hurricane seasons since 1950 with the highest number of hurricane landfalls on the US, there was a very prominent icelandic low pressure and general low pressure in place near Greenland, which would help to entice the landfalling pattern more so than the Pacific as it is more directly related to the high pressure block usually found over eastern and maritime Canada during high landfalling years. This high pressure block over eastern and maritime Canada, which was also found in hurricane Sandy helps to force storms that are over the western and southwestern Atlantic inward towards the coast as they block the natural northeasterly progression of tropical cyclones from the deep tropics and into the mid-latitudes that naturally occurs with the shifting of the wind belt from the tropical easterlies to the mid-latitude westerlies under the Hadley and Ferrell atmospheric cells. The region of high pressure also plays a role in that since air spreads outwards in all directions in regions of high pressure, this forces convergence and pressure falls over the SW Atlantic, which only helps to intensify tropical cyclones in this area by enticing rising motion which aids in the development of thunderstorm activity which is the basis and acts as the building blocks for tropical cyclones. Another aspect I noted that gave even further relation to 1969 was the 400 millibar temperatures, when you complied a list of analog years to this current set-up and stacked those up against 1969, it is absolutely stunning the profound similarity between the two. I could go on and on about the absolutely stunning relationship between this year and 1969, and with this temperature pattern in Europe, which seems to suggest that perhaps 1969 was a year, that was at least close where in the temperature during the month of March was colder than the month of January, which was also below normal, thus this may be one of the years you have been searching for to find this interesting temperature relationship. It also concerns me at the fact that 1969, clearly without a doubt, the closest analog year, featured the deadly and very destructive hurricane Camille as category 5 onto the Gulf of Mexico coastline, thus seems to suggest to me that the streak for no hurricane landfalls on the US coast could come to an abrupt and violent end. Also, let's remember that 1969 also had a significant east coast hurricane with Gerda that moved into eastern Maine as a category 2, one of the few hurricanes to do ever do so. Plus 1969, like what is being expected this year, 1969 came off of the 1968 hurricane season, which like last year, was active (at least in respect to the cold AMO pattern of the 1960s), but many of the storms in 1968 formed out of the deep tropics like they did last season and farther to the north and west, where also the highest ACE was found last season, and 1968 somewhat like last year had at least one significant storm to threaten the east coast (Abby & Gladys). Also, the ENSO index in 1969 is very similar to what is being observed currently and what I anticipate for this hurricane season with either ENSO neutral or weak el nino conditions, which even though usually means less tropical activity for the Atlantic, due to the overwhelmingly warmer than normal waters over the deep tropical Atlantic, means that the majority of tropical energy and rising motion will be focused towards the tropical Atlantic anyway. Thus, with all of this information considered, I honestly hope you have 1969 in your analog package, because if you don't, I think you're making a VERY BIG mistake, but that's just my two cents on this.Ericnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-38972147493702334632013-03-28T15:28:08.281-05:002013-03-28T15:28:08.281-05:00Andrew, something I said on weatherbell.com, that ...Andrew, something I said on weatherbell.com, that may interest you, just appears in my mind to be just another comparison that can be made to 1969, among all of the vast other similarities, including the relation to the Lindsay Storm and early February snowstorms, which occurred virtually within hours of each other, just 44 years apart from each other. Also, the overall northern hemisphere 500 millibar pattern in 1969 from the Dec-Feb period is also similar to what has been observed, with a prominent Greenland block and a large trough over Europe and the US, with some ridging over the north Pacific, classic in a cold PDO, with a trough that hangs back underneath the ridge all the way to Hawaii. 1969 although was not in the overall period of warm AMO, cold PDO as the AMO had cooled in the early-mid 1960s, there was a notable spike in the AMO briefly to its warm mode in 1969, and with a cold PDO in place, this would just continue to enforce the 1950s-like pattern of warm AMO, cold PDO. Also 1969 was at the peak of the solar cycle, like this year, and the solar cycles of both what is being observed now and in 1969 are even more similar as both were at the peak of relatively flat and weak cycles in comparison to the surrounding solar cycles. Then, we just continue to go further into 1969 and we see that in the pre-season leading up to the hurricane season, the temperature profile distribution over the Atlantic is very similar to what is being observed now with a classic warm AMO signature in place, with warmer than normal waters over the deep tropics, cooler waters in the middle latitudes and warmer waters again towards the arctic. WIth such a distribution of water temperatures with cooler than normal waters over the mid-latitudes and warmer than normal waters over the arctic, this helps to enforce and create a classic +NAO signature in the summer, as the cooler than normal waters present from the eastern coast of North America to the shores of the European coast help to enforce the Azores high naturally prominent in this region during hurricane season, and with a stronger than normal Azores high, this forces the natural pressure gradient between the Azores high and the Icelandic low to increase, helping to tighten and confine the jet stream towards the arctic and strengthen the Icelandic vortex. Ericnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-81179256672127523762013-03-27T22:25:25.611-05:002013-03-27T22:25:25.611-05:00Any idea at what you think SST's will be in th...Any idea at what you think SST's will be in the Gulf for hurricane season? Will they be below average or above average do you think? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-89690788354074099592013-03-27T17:39:45.081-05:002013-03-27T17:39:45.081-05:00Andrew, that is completely ok, lol, it may be easi...Andrew, that is completely ok, lol, it may be easier just to read that post one bit at a time, or read it again, because there truly is a lot of information you can derive from it, but you had a good hurricane season forecast above anyways, although I do not see any mention of 1969. Although it was in the overall state of cold AMO, cold PDO, I made very clear recognition in my post that in 1969, which is my top analog for this year, that the AMO briefly spiked to warm, which would at least temporarily, bring a similar 1950s-like pattern back into place in that time period, which draws yet another connection to that hurricane season, but we'll just have to wait and see how that analog holds up.Ericnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-12181002061232195362013-03-27T16:21:02.870-05:002013-03-27T16:21:02.870-05:00Eric: My head was spinning from all the info I mus...Eric: My head was spinning from all the info I must have missed it. Good connection, there is definitely a similarity between 2004 and the current year as far as 400mb temps.<br /><br />Anonymous at 4:16: Good question. My analogs suggest the storms would be able to do both, but the majority of them would most likely be offshore of the mainland.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-76723845411487200042013-03-27T16:16:50.683-05:002013-03-27T16:16:50.683-05:00Do you think the tropical systems will be brought ...Do you think the tropical systems will be brought INTO the eastern seaboard, or will the just skim the coast like Hurricane Earl? I didn't know if this was a comment/question I could ask but please answer!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-15907812332995254032013-03-27T15:25:21.069-05:002013-03-27T15:25:21.069-05:00Andrew, I like the outlook and it was fairly detai...Andrew, I like the outlook and it was fairly detailed, although I do think something that will need to be taken very deep consideration in following outlooks and is something I outlined is the 400 millibar temperatures over the deep tropics, they are a much better indicator, at least from what I can tell, compared to using ENSO because even if you do see el nino, with the air aloft warmer than normal in the deep tropics, it promotes thunderstorm growth as tropical cyclones, unlike mid-latitude systems, feed off of pure latent heat release, thus when you have cooler 400 millibar temperatures like last year, even despite la nina, activity is very quiet in the deep tropics, and the same concept can be applied to 2004 (an analog year in my forecast) when weak el nino conditions were in place, yet deep tropical activity was very prominent because 400 mb temps were warmer than normal that season. Just food for thoughtEricnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-80097353621483399812013-03-27T12:43:00.050-05:002013-03-27T12:43:00.050-05:00Mark: At the end of the post I asked for no locati...Mark: At the end of the post I asked for no location questions- this is only a preliminary and general outlook.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-88449295504790899592013-03-27T12:23:16.895-05:002013-03-27T12:23:16.895-05:00Any thoughts about Atlanta, GA?Any thoughts about Atlanta, GA?Markhttp://usweatherplus.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.com