tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post7630193364262690341..comments2024-03-13T10:47:17.967-05:00Comments on The Weather Centre: 2013 Official Severe Weather OutlookAndrewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-17537502969687568442013-04-05T23:27:01.745-05:002013-04-05T23:27:01.745-05:00Got a question for you Andrew, you mentioned areas...Got a question for you Andrew, you mentioned areas in Southcentral Canada could be in for severe weather this spring, does it look like areas in Southern Manitoba & Winnipeg,MB,Canada could be in for severe weather this spring given the jet stream position's? Let me know please as I wasn't sure if you were talking about Southern Ontario or Manitoba. thx....<br /><br />Mike from Twitter @SouthMBWeatherMikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17535184969918068444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-56066799503861622152013-03-27T16:24:05.018-05:002013-03-27T16:24:05.018-05:00You may not have but southern VA and NC in the pre...You may not have but southern VA and NC in the prediction for a reason but here is my argument. Looking at the models, it looks like the South will be on the gun with severe weather in late april and may. During june however, the storm track looks like it shifts northward and eastward. (as usual) This would give storms to the Tennesee valley region. And finally in august the area spreads eastward and westward. This puts western PA aswell as VA and NC at a higher severe threat. Are you sure we won't get above avg. severe? Or was it that we would be below avg. until august? Im 12 and I plan on becoming a meteorologist whenn I grow up. Please answer, Justin.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-60900236176880640212013-03-21T16:20:36.635-05:002013-03-21T16:20:36.635-05:00What could Virginia get out of this track? Usually...What could Virginia get out of this track? Usually we get the worst when it comes from the South to the North. Can we still get anything from your predicted track?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-49881085086070112652013-03-17T18:06:53.076-05:002013-03-17T18:06:53.076-05:00Highly meridional jet streams/upper level troughs ...Highly meridional jet streams/upper level troughs are generally not as favorable for tornado outbreaks as somewhat lower-amplitude, yet still vigorous upper level disturbances (ala 4/3/74, 5/4/03, 3/21/52 and 4/27/11). The are some exceptions to this rule, particularly in the Plains (like 3/28/07, 5/5/07 and 5/23/08), but strongly meridional upper level winds can lead to problems with the deep layer wind profile (more specifically a back-veer-back configuration) that can be problematic when looking for discrete tornadic supercells. It is one of the reasons why May 24th, 2011 (El Reno/Chickasha/Goldsby) didn't go off in Kansas like it did closer to the OKC metro area, even when some of the other parameters were projected to be just as impressive the day prior.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-81324953795695587262013-03-16T21:04:08.026-05:002013-03-16T21:04:08.026-05:00Well as I said, it is just a forecast. You don...Well as I said, it is just a forecast. You don't need to do it, but the SPC has identified many patterns conducive to storm forecasting. In fact, papers have been published on it. If you can look at the pressure anomalies/jetstream analogs, you can get a reasonable understanding of the most likely threats. Also simply using climatology in general is incredibly useful. For instance, we know that Chicago is much more likely to see damaging straight-line winds vs. hail and tornadoes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-16723841392189122462013-03-16T14:41:41.989-05:002013-03-16T14:41:41.989-05:00Anonymous at 6:27: You cannot forecast above norma...Anonymous at 6:27: You cannot forecast above normal probabilities of hail or damaging winds- each event is different. Tornadoes do have some characteristics that you can use to predict them, but I am not willing to put out a forecast on individual types because of both time and how nearly impossible it is to accurately predict them.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-60968118418342534542013-03-16T06:27:40.648-05:002013-03-16T06:27:40.648-05:00Well I understand if you don't have time. You...Well I understand if you don't have time. Your first statement, however, is quite debatable. We know at this point what patterns favor what severe weather. For instance, we know that a massive high pressure system that sits itself down in the Southeast is very conducive to damaging wind producing MCS's that travel around the flank of that high. Highly meridonial jet streams are favorable for tornado outbreaks, and high heat with relatively little atmospheric support is conducive for pulse severe weather, i.e. hail and winds. In your analogs, you can look for such patterns.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-64054740711612407922013-03-14T17:51:29.583-05:002013-03-14T17:51:29.583-05:00There's no way to predict types of severe weat...There's no way to predict types of severe weather this far out, and regional forecasts require massive amounts of time I do not have at the moment.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-2001519118521295792013-03-14T16:08:04.211-05:002013-03-14T16:08:04.211-05:00Well if you can't do personal forecasts, can y...Well if you can't do personal forecasts, can you please do regional forecasts like you do with the winter forecast? So people can not only see that they are under the gun for severe thunderstorms in general, but specific types of them like hail. Also if you do this you should add sort of a forecast for how many high risk days each area will have. Just my input!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-748328135261647532013-03-14T07:28:57.736-05:002013-03-14T07:28:57.736-05:00Anonymous at 7:10: Thank you very much for the app...Anonymous at 7:10: Thank you very much for the appreciation, I'm very glad you like it!<br /><br />Anonymous at 2:48: Due to the number of visitors at this blog nowadays, personal forecasts have ceased.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-9301879290860379662013-03-12T14:48:23.880-05:002013-03-12T14:48:23.880-05:00Will you be doing personal forecasts sometime in t...Will you be doing personal forecasts sometime in the future? I know it's looking like Michigan could be under the gun this spring, but I'm curious as to how things will turn out in my local area. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-90645332986167752462013-03-11T08:49:25.816-05:002013-03-11T08:49:25.816-05:00Thank you very much for the outlook. As a residen...Thank you very much for the outlook. As a resident of Northeast Illinois, this outlook has been very helpful as well as an eye-opener. I have many contacts in Public Safety and will be forwarding the URL to them. Having this kind of foreknowledge will aid us all in being ready for the severe weather season. Again, excellent work. Thinkingwritingguyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07702553188626942464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-60015257138712586642013-03-11T07:10:44.891-05:002013-03-11T07:10:44.891-05:00Thank you. What an excellent write up. I follow se...Thank you. What an excellent write up. I follow severe weather every spring, and it is nice to know what to expect. This kind of foreknowledge leads to preparedness, and preparedness can lead to lives being saved. I don't always understand the complexities of weather, but I can grasp this enough to know that a potentially active season is on tap for the Great Lakes Region. I live in the Chicago area, and it looks like we are, if not in the "bullseye" very close to it. Again, excellent work. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-17340837665342401342013-03-10T10:09:47.354-05:002013-03-10T10:09:47.354-05:00@Andrew
Thank you, of course I am going to be clo...@Andrew <br />Thank you, of course I am going to be closely monitoring the SOI, and according to some of the forecasts I am seeing, it looks like there could be a major kelvin Wave and -SOI crash towards week 3 & 4, and if my theory from December is right about the Kelvin Wave and stratospheric warming event relationship, this could be exactly when what the stratospheric warming event needs to get going, which of course would not be good, considering that April 2011 also started out with a major -SOI crash and warming event, will be interesting to see how this unfolds.Ericnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-67088874016965266922013-03-09T22:24:30.693-06:002013-03-09T22:24:30.693-06:00Eric and Greg: Always appreciate the invaluable in...Eric and Greg: Always appreciate the invaluable insight you both provide. I did update this outlook to include the stratosphere- while it did not change my forecast graphic, the chances for a more amplified severe weather season are boosted, as you two alluded to in your comments. Keep the comments coming, the more the merrier!<br /><br />Best regards,<br />AndrewAndrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-10956344357438306772013-03-09T21:25:53.377-06:002013-03-09T21:25:53.377-06:00Very good, accurate depiction! We here at the SPC ...Very good, accurate depiction! We here at the SPC headquarters in Norman, OK are going right along with you. The recent warming in the stratosphere will likely have at least some role in the robust severe weather season. Some of our worst outbreaks have happened during years where stratospheric warming was present, and even when it was winding down, affects can still linger for weeks, even months. The pattern doesn't rebuild overnight. So those from the southern Great Lakes into the Mississippi River Valley are the ones most favored for the most robust, most frequent severe weather this season. As soon as we slide our way into April, that looks to really get going strong. Not looking for too much severe weather in the short term, at least nothing in terms of a major outbreak. Those in the Chicago area, the Quad Cities, Indianapolis and St. Louis need to be especailly watchful as those areas seem to be the target zone no matter how you slice it. It's been a long time since we've seen the greatest severe threat in these areas, and what the plains usually see could be shifting into these areas, and it is critical to be sure the public is alerted as swiftly as possible. We don't want to csuse panic, but sometimes being scared is what can save your life. Ignoring and not caring about the weather can endanger your life! Again, great update. Lets hope we don't get it too bad. We get this gut wrenching feeling already, and you know exactly what we mean! We know what happens in major outbreaks, and it is very sad and largely preventable. Take care, Andrew.<br /><br /> -Greg Carbin Jr.Greg Carbin Jr.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-53633901884987588082013-03-09T14:53:02.513-06:002013-03-09T14:53:02.513-06:00Iowa looks to be having (the central plains) an av...Iowa looks to be having (the central plains) an average spring & rainfall it does seem?<br />Which to me means cold & rainy…am I right? I do not like that at all….I get we need<br />moisture, but, we could also use some sun & heat! I am so depressed!<br />Thank you so much Andrew for all your hard work I really appreciate you!<br />Even all the cold & snow & rain you bring! I still appreciate you! Thank you! <br />bree<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-63600880232791338922013-03-09T13:53:56.844-06:002013-03-09T13:53:56.844-06:00In doing so, would force a major Kelvin Wave, and ...In doing so, would force a major Kelvin Wave, and -SOI regime (which I showed in my most recent post a correlation to tornado activity in April 2011), and would kickstart the ongoing warming event, and not to mention the fact that with the sunspot cycles crashing low again over the last several days (as noted by the last several years with a increase in warming events likely tied to a weak and quiet sun) to now with the official NOAA sunspot number below 60, and with above normal snowpack over the northern hemisphere in place, the ingredients are certainly there for this warming event to reintensify once again in the medium to long ranges, which just would raise my concerns for major tornado outbreaksEricnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-34750975363019772242013-03-09T13:48:57.993-06:002013-03-09T13:48:57.993-06:00Now, I don't find it just coincidence that thi...Now, I don't find it just coincidence that this warming event happened and the MJO was moving quickly across the Indian Ocean and into the western Pacific, (where the Himalayas are located), and since the MJO is associated with rising air and latent heat release, this causes a tendency for the atmosphere above to warm in response (supporting that Kelvin Wave theory I developed with SSW in December), however, the MJO slowed its progression east, and its no coincidence the warming event has slowed, but the reason the MJO slowed progression east just goes back to the global ocean temp anomalies, and when you look at the western Pacific, it is much warmer in comparison to the Indian and the central and eastern Pacific, and considering warmer ocean, warms the air above and induced rising motion, it makes sense that the MJO has stalled, which led to a slowdown in the warming event. However, when you look at the deep tropical Atlantic and note the very warm waters (warmer than the west Pacific where the MJO is currently located) induced by the -NAO enforcing weaker than normal trade winds, you have to say to yourself, that the MJO must at some point come east towards the Atlantic.Ericnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-19286014014665206592013-03-09T13:41:55.396-06:002013-03-09T13:41:55.396-06:00@ Andrew
Well, I'll include it in my new post...@ Andrew <br />Well, I'll include it in my new post, but I actually think the culprit behind the warming in the first place is the MJO, and you'll note how it came across the Indian Ocean and into the western Pacific as we get towards the 20th or so, at the exact same time period this warming event was initiated over the Himalayas, as you've described whereas air rushes over the mountainous terrain, it is "squeezed" and forced upwards and as it comes down the other side of the mountains, the air near the surface sinks, while the air well above the surface continues along steady or even rising to a certain degree. This creates a diversion of air along a propagating wave of energy near earth's surface, and since air is spreading out, this allows for the air molecules within that given air mass to move more freely about, and since air molecules have more space to move about, this is indicative of warming. Ericnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-3516130704308830122013-03-09T13:08:45.878-06:002013-03-09T13:08:45.878-06:00Eric: I was actually going to put it in there, but...Eric: I was actually going to put it in there, but recently the warming event has started to flatten out and stagnate. That, combined with how prone I am to forgetting things, ended up excluding the stratosphere in this post. But yes, SSW's certainly are big players in the severe weather season, no doubt about that.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751979013231521196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1448180228140749967.post-31341450751833310432013-03-09T12:57:29.165-06:002013-03-09T12:57:29.165-06:00Andrew, I love this post, extremely informative an...Andrew, I love this post, extremely informative and interesting, however I do want to shed some light on the ongoing stratospheric warming event, and in fact, if you go back into the stratospheric temperature archive and look at all of the years with late season warming events, and then you look at the following tornado seasons, there is certainly a notable increase in tornado activity and large outbreaks. Take 1999 for example, late stratospheric warming event, then in April and May a series of outbreaks followed, including the extremely powerful Moore Tornado of May 3, 1999 with the fastest wind speed ever measured on earth at 318 MPH. Then, you can also go back and look at April 2011 and see there was a warming event at the beginning of April, and of course we all now what followed as far as severe weather in that month.Ericnoreply@blogger.com