The Weather Centre- Quality Weather Forecasting for the US

March Long Range Severe Weather Outlook

2012-03-03T12:40:00.000-06:00

What the landscape may look like as a storm system enters the West Coast.

I am sending out a message of warning to those in the Plains for the next few weeks to be on the lookout.

A vortex will soon be forming in Alaska. This vortex of low pressure will act as a breeding ground for storm systems. The storm systems will come onshore the US and follow the jet stream north into the Canada/US border.

The jet stream will be displaced north into the Canada/US border as a cause-effect relationship between the Alaskan Vortex and a ridge in the Central and Eastern US.

As a system comes onshore, it will try to push eastward instead of northeast, pressing down on the jet stream and creating higher wind speeds in the jet stream as a result. As the system moves along the jet stream, the back end of it will carry cold, dry air from the Mountains. Out in front of the storm system will be moist, unstable Gulf of Mexico air.

At some point, the cold air will clash with the warm air, igniting thunderstorms that will likely start out as discrete super cells forming in the midst of the warm, humid air out ahead of the system. These storm cells may have rotation, thanks to the jet stream. Eventually, these storm cells would become linear as a cold front traverses across the Northern US with the severe storms.

I'm not saying this will happen with every storm, but as of now that is how things are looking.
Something I am seeing in the most recent 12z GFS run is how a storm is down in the South US, but the jet stream is not latching on to it. I feel that the GFS is incorrectly interpreting that situation.

Here are two scenarios for what could happen. The first is the light blue storm track, which rides along the jet stream and may produce severe storms south of it (light red).

The second track is if the jet stream is too far north so the system meanders along the Gulf Coast, wrapped up in warm, unstable Gulf air. The entire Southeast and South Plains are taken ahold of severe storms in that situation.

Again, this is very long range and may not happen at all- it is a mere representation of what has recently been shown and put together with some of my forecasting.

Tornado Warning (Hook Echo, Tornado Indicated)- NW of Moody Air Force Base, Georgia

2012-03-03T11:21:00.002-06:00

Tornado Warning on right sidebar of this image.

Forecast Comparison to the Result (March 2 Tornado Outbreak)

2012-03-03T10:15:00.000-06:00

This is a comparison of my forecast to what the tornado outbreak resulted in.
Here was my forecast for tornadoes, issued yesterday morning.

My 'hotspot' for the day was central Kentucky and Tennessee.
Here are the severe weather reports from yesterday.

The tornado hotspot for yesterday was the Ohio/Indiana/Kentucky borders into the rest of KY and TN.
My personal rating for this would be a B.

Achievements of the forecast vs comparison:
-Many tornadoes were recorded in the two states being watched the closest.
-Most of the severe weather reports were in Tennessee, where I had my forecast most pointed towards.

Losses of the forecast vs comparison:
-Did not adequately cover the OH/KY and IN/KY border, where the models had still been showing high tornado potential levels.
-More tornadoes slightly south of the main monitoring forecast area.

-Andrew

Tornado Warning (Significant Damage)- West of Billingsley, Alabama

2012-03-02T22:11:00.002-06:00

692

WWUS54 KBMX 030357

SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

957 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ALC001-021-030430-

/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-120303T0430Z/

CHILTON AL-AUTAUGA AL-

957 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN AUTAUGA AND

SOUTHEASTERN CHILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CST...

AT 954 PM CST...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO

WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST

OF BILLINGSLEY...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF CLANTON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

VERBENA...MARBURY...NEW PROSPECT AND COOPER.

THIS INCLUDES...

INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBER 200...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3265 8665 3274 8667 3282 8646 3276 8639

3275 8639 3274 8642 3271 8641 3268 8641

TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 252DEG 46KT 3271 8660

Overnight Tornado Threat Overview

2012-03-02T21:56:00.000-06:00

I have updated my evening tornado threat forecast for this evening.
The swath of yellow is indicative of some stronger storms possible/likely as the squall line continues east. The red area is a short term area. As the daytime heating lessens, as does instability, the tornado threat should diminish soon after this happens. Additionally, the storms are going linear, therefore decreasing the tornado threat.
There are some spotty pink areas that are for the cells that are currently tornado warned and would otherwise be just red of those cells were not present.

-Andrew

LIVE Updates

2012-03-02T21:47:00.002-06:00

Currently 92 tornado reports per the Storm Prediction Center.
14 Deaths confirmed- total to rise.

Thank You

2012-03-02T19:47:00.001-06:00

I wanted to take a minute and thank all those who come to see The Weather Centre. Without your support, this blog really wouldn't be as good as it is now. Thank you again. I really do appreciate it when you comment or even just drop by to see it.

-Andrew

Rest of Afternoon Tornado Outlook

2012-03-02T16:29:00.000-06:00

Our in-house weather model is showing the tornado threat for the rest of this evening to reside mainly across Kentucky and Tennessee. What I find startling is that our in-house model is indicating an area of pink in central Tennessee, indicating the risk of stronger tornadoes is present into the rest of this afternoon. After the afternoon storms, everything should quickly diminish into the night.

Tornado Warning- North of Huntsville, Alabama

2012-03-02T16:00:00.002-06:00

689

WWUS54 KOHX 022155

SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN

355 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

TNC021-037-187-022215-

/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-120302T2215Z/

WILLIAMSON TN-CHEATHAM TN-DAVIDSON TN-

355 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DAVIDSON...SOUTHERN

CHEATHAM AND NORTHERN WILLIAMSON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CST...

AT 350 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PEGRAM...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF ASHLAND CITY...

MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL UP

TO GOLF BALL SIZE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

BELLE MEADE...OAK HILL AND FOREST HILLS AROUND 400 PM CST.

NASHVILLE AROUND 405 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE BERRY HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

LAT...LON 3629 8665 3625 8664 3624 8659 3617 8657

3609 8651 3607 8652 3608 8654 3601 8662

3591 8663 3592 8720 3616 8717 3617 8715

3621 8719 3623 8717 3624 8719 3626 8718

3635 8673

TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 260DEG 57KT 3609 8697

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE- TAKE COVER!!

2012-03-02T15:52:00.002-06:00

LIKELY TORNADO ON THE GROUND

Tornado Warning (Tornado Confirmed)- Nashville, Tennessee

2012-03-02T15:43:00.000-06:00

928

WWUS54 KOHX 022130

SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN

330 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

TNC043-081-085-022145-

/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-120302T2145Z/

DICKSON TN-HICKMAN TN-HUMPHREYS TN-

330 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL HUMPHREYS...

NORTHERN HICKMAN AND DICKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CST...

AT 327 PM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DICKSON...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

BURNS AROUND 335 PM CST.

WHITE BLUFF AROUND 340 PM CST.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WINDS TO

70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN

INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID

WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE

CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

LAT...LON 3629 8718 3625 8719 3624 8718 3590 8722

3590 8763 3616 8774 3620 8765 3620 8759

3618 8757 3622 8754

TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 262DEG 53KT 3603 8742

Notice

2012-03-02T15:41:00.001-06:00

I am deciding to abruptly stop issuing tornado warnings starting tomorrow.
While I have issued tornado warnings to get out the message, I have noticed that it is more of a clogging device to this blog.
If you think I should continue posting tornado warnings, you may comment below.

Tornado Warning (Tornado Indicated)- Pickens, Kentucky

2012-03-02T15:39:00.002-06:00

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

429 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

SCC073-077-022200-

/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120302T2200Z/

OCONEE SC-PICKENS SC-

429 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EST FOR NORTHERN

PICKENS AND NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES...

AT 427 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SALEM...OR 9 MILES

NORTHEAST OF WALHALLA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

MOST AT RISK ARE THE AREAS FROM SALEM TO NEAR NINE TIMES TO

PUMPKINTOWN. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT

LIMITED TO ROCKY BOTTOM...PICKENS...AND DACUSVILLE. HAIL OF QUARTER

TO GOLF BALL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUILDING AND PUT AS

MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE OUTSIDE AS YOU CAN. MOBILE HOMES

SHOULD ABANDONED FOR A STURDIER SHELTER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EST FRIDAY EVENING

FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL SOUTH

CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3495 8306 3507 8277 3505 8274 3506 8271

3507 8257 3505 8260 3503 8258 3501 8260

3501 8254 3490 8251 3480 8296 3483 8304

3490 8307

TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 248DEG 34KT 3490 8296

Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch #62

2012-03-02T15:38:00.002-06:00

SEL2
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 62
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   420 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          EASTERN KENTUCKY
          SOUTHEAST OHIO
          WESTERN VIRGINIA
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 420 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST.
   
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
   
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
   JACKSON KENTUCKY TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PARKERSBURG WEST
   VIRGINIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57...WW 58...WW 59...WW
   60...WW 61...
   
   DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES OVER
   CNTRL KY ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE WATCH AREA LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR OF INTENSIFYING
   EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THOUGH REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE ERN
   ENVELOPE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR AND ESTABLISHED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INDICATES A HIGH
   LIKELIHOOD FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.  SOME CONSOLIDATION OF
   NRN-MOST SUPERCELLS INTO A FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
   WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
   DAMAGING WINDS.  LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED
   SUPERCELLS.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.

Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch #58

2012-03-02T15:37:00.002-06:00

SEL8
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 58
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   105 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
          CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
          SOUTHWEST OHIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 900
   PM EST.
   
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
   
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
   DAYTON OHIO TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY.  FOR
   A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 56...WW 57...
   
   DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER SRN IL AND SERN MO ARE
   EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ATTENDANT TO
   STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY STRONG LOW- AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.

Special Analysis - 3:30 PM CST

2012-03-02T15:29:00.000-06:00

Numerous tornadic thunderstorms are erupting across the Ohio Valley and areas west of the Appalachian mountains.
Analysis indicates that EHI is at values over 5 in many areas across the Kentucky/Tennessee region.
As we continue throughout the afternoon, the number of storms should continue to grow and become more severe.

Here is what is currently in effect:
-Critical Storm Action Day (CDAS).
-Live Posting

Tornado Warning (Hurricane Force Winds)- Caneyville, Kentucky

2012-03-02T15:26:00.000-06:00

007

WFUS53 KLMK 022111

TORLMK

KYC027-085-093-183-022145-

/O.NEW.KLMK.TO.W.0054.120302T2111Z-120302T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY

311 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

SOUTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

EASTERN OHIO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...

GRAYSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST/445 PM EST/...

* AT 306 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WINDY HILL...MOVING EAST AT 75 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...

LEITCHFIELD...

POST AND SHORT CREEK...

HANGING ROCK AND LILAC...

SAINT PAUL AND BIG CLIFTY...

SUMMIT AND EASTVIEW...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 80 MPH

POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. SEEK SHELTER NOW!

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO

THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING

DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL

FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3775 8596 3745 8589 3745 8604 3743 8605

3738 8656 3739 8662 3737 8665 3737 8670

3757 8676

TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 256DEG 68KT 3746 8666

Tornado Warning (Tornado Spotted)- Mount Washington, KY

2012-03-02T15:24:00.002-06:00

437

WFUS53 KLMK 022120

TORLMK

INC061-KYC029-093-111-022145-

/O.NEW.KLMK.TO.W.0055.120302T2120Z-120302T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY

420 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN BULLITT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

NORTHERN HARDIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 445 PM EST...

* AT 415 PM EST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR

WEST POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL ALSO IMPACT...

LOUISVILLE...

VALLEY STATION...

OKOLONA...

FERN CREEK...

FAIRDALE...

HIGHVIEW...

WEATHER OBSERVERS REPORTED A TORNADO AT FORT KNOX.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT

WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. GO TO A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR

ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR!

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED

BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW

SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL

FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3826 8541 3811 8543 3809 8547 3804 8550

3788 8592 3805 8601

TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 245DEG 59KT 3800 8586

Tornado Warning- St. Leon, Indiana

2012-03-02T15:23:00.002-06:00

351

WWUS51 KILN 022119

SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

419 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INC029-047-OHC061-022145-

/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120302T2145Z/

FRANKLIN IN-DEARBORN IN-HAMILTON OH-

419 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EST FOR NORTHERN

DEARBORN AND SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...

AND NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...

AT 414 PM EST...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

WEISBURG...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS

STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO IN RIPLEY COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

HIDDEN VALLEY...BRIGHT AND HARRISON.

IN ADDITION...GUILFORD...DOVER...ST. LEON...LOGAN...NEW TRENTON...

WEST HARRISON AND ROCKDALE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. PROTECT YOURSELF

FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES...FUNNEL CLOUDS...STRONG WINDS OR HAIL TO THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN

YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3930 8506 3939 8482 3931 8482 3930 8479

3918 8477 3912 8500 3912 8510

TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 248DEG 47KT 3922 8498

Tornado Emergency (Large, Violent Tornado on Ground)- Walton, Kentucky

2012-03-02T15:22:00.002-06:00

185

WWUS51 KILN 022114

SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

414 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INC155-KYC015-077-117-022130-

/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-120302T2130Z/

SWITZERLAND IN-KENTON KY-BOONE KY-GALLATIN KY-

414 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN GALLATIN...BOONE...KENTON AND

SWITZERLAND COUNTIES...

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EST...

AT 410 PM EST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED DEBRIS FALLING FROM THE SKY IN

BOONE COUNTY. RADAR INDICATED THAT THE TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS

MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH...CURRENTLY NEAR WARSAW.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WALTON AND INDEPENDENCE.

IN ADDITION...BIG BONE...RYLE...BEAVERLICK...VERONA...RICHWOOD...

BRACHT...BANK LICK AND RICEDALE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

I-71 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 68 AND 77 IN KENTUCKY...

I-75 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 167 AND 178 IN KENTUCKY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY

TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE

TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID

WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE

CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES...FUNNEL CLOUDS...STRONG WINDS OR HAIL TO THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN

YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3888 8490 3899 8449 3881 8444 3881 8445

3879 8461 3881 8462 3879 8465 3877 8496

TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 256DEG 49KT 3880 8478

Tornado Warning (Strong Rotation)- Richmond Municipal Airport, Kentucky

2012-03-02T15:20:00.002-06:00

893

WWUS51 KILN 022117

SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

417 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INC177-OHC037-109-113-135-022200-

/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120302T2200Z/

WAYNE IN-DARKE OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-PREBLE OH-

417 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EST FOR NORTHERN

PREBLE...NORTHERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHWESTERN MIAMI...SOUTHERN DARKE

AND SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES...

AT 414 PM EST...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

RICHMOND MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. ANOTHER AREA OF

ROTATION WAS LOCATED NEAR GORDON...ALSO MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. IN

ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THESE STORMS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

QUARTER INCH HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

NEW PARIS...EATON...WEST ALEXANDRIA...LEWISBURG...TROTWOOD...

ENGLEWOOD...WEST MILTON...VANDALIA AND TIPP CITY.

IN ADDITION...WEST FLORENCE...NEW HOPE...ELDORADO...OKLAHOMA...WEST

MANCHESTER...CASTINE...ITHACA AND GORDON ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS

STORM.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 36 IN OHIO...

I-75 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 59 AND 72 IN OHIO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. PROTECT YOURSELF

FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES...FUNNEL CLOUDS...STRONG WINDS OR HAIL TO THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN

YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3974 8448 3973 8497 3996 8477 4003 8414

3983 8415

TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 255DEG 55KT 3977 8479

Tornado Warning (History of Tornadoes)- Sparta, Kentucky

2012-03-02T15:18:00.003-06:00

897

WWUS51 KILN 022106

SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

406 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INC155-KYC015-041-077-081-187-022130-

/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120302T2130Z/

SWITZERLAND IN-OWEN KY-BOONE KY-CARROLL KY-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-

406 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EST FOR WESTERN

GRANT...GALLATIN...CARROLL...SOUTHERN BOONE...NORTHERN OWEN AND

SWITZERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 405 PM EST...RADAR WAS TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A

HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

INTERSTATE 71 AT MILE MARKER 40...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. IN ADDITION

TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZED

HAIL.

ANOTHER TORNADIC STORM WAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH NEAR VEVAY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CARROLLTON...VEVAY AND WARSAW.

IN ADDITION...PRESTONVILLE...GENERAL BUTLER STATE PARK...BRAYTOWN...

ENGLISH...LANGSTAFF...WORTHVILLE...EASTERDAY AND GHENT ARE NEAR THE

PATH OF THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW.

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO

THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES...FUNNEL CLOUDS...STRONG WINDS OR HAIL TO THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN

YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

Tornado Warning (Hook Echo Sighted)- Waverly, Tennessee

2012-03-02T15:17:00.002-06:00

897

WWUS51 KILN 022106

SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

406 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INC155-KYC015-041-077-081-187-022130-

/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120302T2130Z/

SWITZERLAND IN-OWEN KY-BOONE KY-CARROLL KY-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-

406 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EST FOR WESTERN

GRANT...GALLATIN...CARROLL...SOUTHERN BOONE...NORTHERN OWEN AND

SWITZERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 405 PM EST...RADAR WAS TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A

HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

INTERSTATE 71 AT MILE MARKER 40...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. IN ADDITION

TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZED

HAIL.

ANOTHER TORNADIC STORM WAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH NEAR VEVAY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CARROLLTON...VEVAY AND WARSAW.

IN ADDITION...PRESTONVILLE...GENERAL BUTLER STATE PARK...BRAYTOWN...

ENGLISH...LANGSTAFF...WORTHVILLE...EASTERDAY AND GHENT ARE NEAR THE

PATH OF THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW.

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO

THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES...FUNNEL CLOUDS...STRONG WINDS OR HAIL TO THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN

YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

Potential Tornado- Campbellsburg, KY

2012-03-02T15:03:00.001-06:00

448
WFUS53 KLMK 022051
TORLMK
INC019-KYC103-185-223-022115-
/O.NEW.KLMK.TO.W.0051.120302T2051Z-120302T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
351 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHEASTERN OLDHAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN TRIMBLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
EASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EST...

* AT 347 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HIBERNIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
BEDFORD...
MONITOR AND PROVIDENCE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO
THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3863 8522 3861 8521 3859 8521 3858 8518
3851 8517 3843 8553 3854 8554 3867 8526
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 245DEG 48KT 3857 8543

$$

--

NWS Warnings Provided by AllisonHouse.com

TORNADO EMERGENCY- CARROLTON, KY

2012-03-02T15:01:00.001-06:00

784
WFUS51 KILN 022050
TORILN
INC155-KYC015-041-077-081-187-022130-
/O.NEW.KILN.TO.W.0004.120302T2050Z-120302T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
350 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...
CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...
GALLATIN COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...
WESTERN GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN OWEN COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...
SWITZERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EST.

* AT 347 PM EST...A LARGE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND 5 MILES WEST OF
CARROLTON AS REPORTED BY SPOTTERS. RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARROLLTON...
VEVAY...
WARSAW...

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER TORNADIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO AREAS
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THIS STORM OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR...AFFECTING
NORTHERN OWEN COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTY.

IN ADDITION...PRESTONVILLE...GENERAL BUTLER STATE PARK...BRAYTOWN...
ENGLISH...LANGSTAFF...WORTHVILLE...EASTERDAY AND GHENT ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...
I-71 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 40 AND 75 IN KENTUCKY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES...FUNNEL CLOUDS...STRONG WINDS OR HAIL TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO.

&&

LAT...LON 3873 8524 3870 8521 3874 8521 3889 8464
3859 8458 3851 8503 3856 8501 3857 8504
3856 8507 3859 8509 3858 8521 3863 8523
3871 8532
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 259DEG 45KT 3868 8523

$$

--

NWS Warnings Provided by AllisonHouse.com

Prognosis #2

2012-03-02T13:48:00.001-06:00

PDS Tornado Watches have already been issued. Feel that the idea of issuing a CSAD was well warranted. Afternoon live posting starts at 3:20 this afternoon.

PDS Tornado Watch #2

2012-03-02T13:47:00.001-06:00

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 58
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWEST OHIO

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 900
PM EST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
DAYTON OHIO TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 56...WW 57...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER SRN IL AND SERN MO ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ATTENDANT TO
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY STRONG LOW- AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.

...MEAD

Tornado Warning for Bryson City, TN

2012-03-02T13:45:00.001-06:00

035
WFUS52 KGSP 021929
TORGSP
NCC075-173-022030-
/O.NEW.KGSP.TO.W.0004.120302T1929Z-120302T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SWAIN COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EST

* AT 224 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FONTANA VILLAGE...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF ROBBINSVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWFOUND GAP...
SMOKEMONT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR STURDIER SHELTER.
OTHERWISE...GO TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF YOUR HOME
OR PLACE OF BUSINESS. MAKE SURE THERE ARE AS MANY WALLS AND FLOORS
BETWEEN YOU AND THE OUTSIDE AS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...DAMAGING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS WILL PRECEDE THE TORNADO. WIND DRIVEN HAIL OF THIS SIZE
POSES A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF INJURY AND DAMAGE. MOBILE HOMES AND
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR STURDIER SHELTER. OTHERWISE...GO TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR PLACE OF
BUSINESS.

TO REPORT TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING...
THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL FREE NUMBER...
1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 8388 3553 8383 3557 8377 3558 8360
3557 8349 3562 8344 3567 8334 3566 8330
3569 8327 3569 8323 3556 8316 3551 8318
3552 8324 3549 8329 3538 8387 3548 8392
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 245DEG 52KT 3551 8378

$$

--

NWS Warnings Provided by AllisonHouse.com

PDS Tornado Watch #1

2012-03-02T12:05:00.001-06:00

Tornado Warning for Middlesborough, TN

2012-03-02T11:59:00.001-06:00

363
WWUS53 KJKL 021756
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1256 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYC013-121-235-021815-
/O.CON.KJKL.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120302T1815Z/
KNOX KY-WHITLEY KY-BELL KY-
1256 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELL...SOUTHERN WHITLEY
AND SOUTHERN KNOX COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EST...

AT 1251 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHENOA...OR 8 MILES WEST OF MIDDLESBORO...
MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
FERNDALE...MELDRUM...CLEAR CREEK SPRINGS AND WASIOTO AROUND 100 PM
EST. CALVIN...VARILLA...EAST PINEVILLE AND KETTLE ISLAND AROUND
105 PM EST. BALKA...OAKS...MIRACLE AND CALLAWAY AROUND 110 PM EST.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADO INCLUDE SHELALY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8422 3668 8428 3692 8366 3668 8347
3658 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 248DEG 56KT 3666 8380

$$

--

NWS Warnings Provided by AllisonHouse.com

Tornado Warning for Chattanooga, TN

2012-03-02T11:41:00.001-06:00

455
WWUS54 KMRX 021737
SVSMRX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1237 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

TNC065-115-153-021800-
/O.CON.KMRX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120302T1800Z/
SEQUATCHIE TN-HAMILTON TN-MARION TN-
1237 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST/NOON CST/ FOR
MARION...HAMILTON AND SEQUATCHIE COUNTIES...

AT 1234 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RED BANK...OR NEAR
CHATTANOOGA...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
HAMILTON...MARION AND SEQUATCHIE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/300 PM CST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/ FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8560 3512 8570 3531 8499 3513 8503
3501 8500 3498 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 253DEG 48KT 3514 8519

$$

--

NWS Warnings Provided by AllisonHouse.com

Tornado Warning for La Follette, TN

2012-03-02T11:21:00.001-06:00

909
WWUS54 KMRX 021709
SVSMRX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1209 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

TNC013-151-021730-
/O.CON.KMRX.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120302T1730Z/
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL TN-
1209 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM EST FOR CAMPBELL
AND SCOTT COUNTIES...

AT 1204 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SLICK ROCK...OR 14
MILES SOUTH OF ONEIDA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LA FOLLETTE...JACKSBORO...SMOKEY JUNCTION...NORMA...ROYAL BLUE...
CARYVILLE...KETCHEN...ELK VALLEY...FINCASTLE...WHITE OAK AND
JELLICO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8401 3640 8390 3639 8392 3640 8395
3637 8395 3633 8398 3619 8447 3644 8460
3660 8432
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 240DEG 52KT 3633 8442

$$

--

NWS Warnings Provided by AllisonHouse.com

Tornado Warning for Spring City, TN

2012-03-02T11:20:00.001-06:00

855
WFUS54 KMRX 021657
TORMRX
TNC007-143-021730-
/O.NEW.KMRX.TO.W.0016.120302T1657Z-120302T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1057 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BLEDSOE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
RHEA COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CST/1230 PM EST/

* AT 1054 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PIKEVILLE.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
SPRING CITY...MELVINE...EVENSVILLE AND GRANDVIEW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/400 PM EST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/ FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3578 8513 3578 8504 3576 8503 3577 8491
3583 8481 3582 8480 3575 8476 3558 8482
3551 8525 3566 8531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 245DEG 48KT 3564 8514

$$

--

NWS Warnings Provided by AllisonHouse.com

Notice

2012-03-02T11:16:00.001-06:00

Due to today's expected severe weather outbreak and declared Critical Storm Action Day (CSAD), I will be posting live throughout the afternoon starting at 3:00 PM CST

Prognosis

2012-03-02T09:20:00.001-06:00

With SPC issuing a HIGH RISK for central KY... have decided today to be a Critical Storm Action Day (CSAD).

HIGH RISK FOR TORNADOES TODAY

2012-03-02T07:09:00.000-06:00

ANYONE IN THE HIGH RISK AREA NEEDS TO REVIEW PLANS NOW!

Significant Severe Weather Episode Today (6:45 AM CST Discussion)

2012-03-02T06:43:00.001-06:00

EDIT: HIGH RISK NOW IN EFFECT

OLD DISCUSSION---

Overall Storm Prediction Risk

Hail Threat

Tornado Threat

Damaging Wind Threat

The Storm Prediction Center has maintained its moderate risk area. This was expected, as this will not be a world-ending situation. It will be pretty bad, but not extremely horrible.

A big thing we will be looking for is EHI in Kentucky and Tennessee. EHI is probably the best tornado predictor around, as it combines spinning and instability in the atmosphere, both crucial to make tornadoes. Values over 1 are considered 'high' EHI values.
In this image, we see the EHI above 3 in Kentucky and Tennessee, signaling that there will be ample tornado key ingredients to potentially make for some tornadoes. After this large EHI, however, it will begin to weaken with movement eastward.

We are also watching the jet stream, which will be screaming along at over 100 knots. Notice how the jet stream seems to have two horizontal leg-like features near the East Coast. That is called a split flow. Basically, it is when the jet stream is interrupted and splits into two because the rising of air is too powerful for the jet stream to go through. Split flows are sign soy an unstable atmosphere and are generally good things to look for when storm chasing.

CAPE values are referred to as instability in the meteorological world. When this CAPE is over 1000 j/kg, that typically signals the potential for thunderstorms. In values over 2000 j/kg, which is seen above, that means that the atmosphere is w supportive of severe thunderstorms. With a 2000 - 3000 j/kg CAPE and 3+ EHI values, this could very well be a very dangerously active environment for thunderstorms and tornadoes alike.

Storm chasers and meteorologists alike also look for something called deep layer shear. Basically, the more shearing there is, the better the environment for tornadoes. Looking at the image above, we see deep layer shear (DLS) values of over 100 knots present in Missouri. Luckily, that is not the area we are looking at. We are watching the Tennessee/Kentucky area, which has about 60-80 knots of DLS. That is still a pretty high number and supportive of some tornadoes.

My Thoughts

The SPC made the right move in not issuing a High Risk. Not enough of some key components will be in place/will be strong enough. However, I do think it is possible that a High Risk could be issued short term when the storms initially fire up, if they are stronger than expected. Also, 2000 - 3000 j/kg with 3+ EHI is nothing to mess with.

Here is my tornado outlook for today.

-Andrew

Updated Morning Discussion will be issued at 6:45 AM CST Tomorrow

2012-03-01T21:00:00.002-06:00

The 0z models are bad enough that I will issue a full blown discussion tomorrow morning at 6:45 AM CST.

-Andrew

3/1/12 Evening Prognosis

2012-03-01T19:25:00.000-06:00

Not much of an update, but here's what it is.

For people wondering if a High Risk will be issued by the SPC tomorrow, I personally say probably not, because of lower CAPE and not enough dynamics likely to come together for violent tornadoes.

Tomorrow morning, I will come out with a new tornado map.

-Andrew

Dangerous Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Tomorrow

2012-03-01T15:54:00.001-06:00

I am closely monitoring the potential for extreme severe weather tomorrow, March 2, 2012.

Discussion...
Have noted Storm Prediction Center's issuance of a moderate risk for Ohio Valley into the nation's Midsection and South Central US.

Model Used for Discussion: NAM due to recent issues with GFS

NAM has been putting out uncomfortably high EHI forecast values for South Illinois into Missouri, Tennessee and Kentucky. This is where the threat should start off with.

Deep layer shear from that point on increases to over 100 knots out west to over 70 knots in the area being monitored for severe weather. This deep layer shear is more than supportive for super cells, and should easily assist any possible tornado threats. Lower Level Jet stream will be quickly moving along with speeds upwards of 50 knots in the areas mentioned above. Jet stream at 300 mb level will be screaming at over 100 knots. Additionally, I have noted the NAM's split flow regime over Tennessee and Kentucky, only further enhancing my fears for this potential outbreak.

Progressing several hours further, the risk begins to shift east. Deep layer shear increases with this shift eastward. Lifted Index will be as low as -8, a very low number to see for early March. This intense lifting is signaling the deep layer shear to also begin to influence the rising air and may begin to spin that rising air. Split flow mentioned previously begins to wear off but is still very much present in the Tennessee/Kentucky region. At this point, surface winds should begin to increase beyond 20 knots.
High theta-e at this point marks the high instability that will be present in the region, even though CAPE measurements reflect a somewhat substantial 2500 j/kg.

Storms should be moving pretty fast, with some exceeding 40 knots in spots, which equates out to 46 MPH. And then there's the issue of storm relative winds. SR Winds at 850mb are going directly opposite of the forecast storm motions. As for exactly what this implies remains to be seen, but it is never a good thing to see two levels in the atmosphere going different directions.

My Thoughts

I'm thinking that this won't be a terrible outbreak situation, but it will be pretty rough. This intense wind shear will do its job on updrafts that will be persuaded to rise by 1000 - 2000 j/kg of instability. As the shear takes hold and the updrafts strengthen in association with the moderate instability that will be on the increase, I am thinking that any storms that form will start out with a moderate risk for tornadoes that will be on the rise fairly quickly into the afternoon hours.
Here's my thinking for the tornado risk.

Caveats:
It is next to impossible (if not impossible) to predict tornadoes.
Models are still having disagreements (GFS is a tad less energetic).

Any questions may be asked below.
-Andrew

Moderate Risk Issued for Tomorrow, March 2

2012-03-01T08:20:00.000-06:00

**The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for severe weather, effective tomorrow, March 2nd.**

Discussion...
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare Day 2 moderate risk area for the Ohio Valley into the nation's Midsection and South Central US.
Have tried to pinpoint exactly when the instability will be highest and shearing the strongest. After determining that timeframe, I have found the jet stream to be raging at 140 knots, which equates to 160 MPH. You may not know it, but 160 MPH for a jet stream is extremely similar to the strength that was present for the April 2011 Superoutbreak of tornadoes.
Low Level Jet stream at 700mb level will also be screaming at 70 knots, which is roughly 80 MPH. Again, this is unusually strong for a lower level jet stream, and will only increase to the worry factor for this situation. An atmospheric cap will be virtually nonexistent, meaning any storms that fire will quickly break any cap present and proceed to strengthen.
As for shearing, SFC-700mb shearing will be fairly high, with the maximum values in the 70 knot ranges. SFC-850mb values are lower, coming in at a maximum 50 knots. SFC-925mb shearing maxes out at 30 knots. These amounts seem pretty insignificant, but all this shearing could very well set the stage for an extremely active day tomorrow.
And then there's the issue of deep layer shearing (difference between surface and 500mb winds). Check out the forecast deep layer shear (DLS) for the timeframe I am using:

This amount of deep layer shear is incredible to me- values of 100 knots+ are possible per the 6z GFS! Deep layer shear is one of a few main things needed for tornadoes, and the fact that there is this much shearing worries me.
Another worrying thing is how the Storm Prediction Center has put in the wording "Long Tracked/Significant Tornadoes Are Possible".

Tomorrow is likely to be the crash course into the 2012 severe weather season. That said, be ready if you are in the moderate risk area. The moderate risk area is nothing to fool around with- almost every time, I have seen tornadoes come out of these moderate risk situations if they were declared for tornadoes. It looks like this moderate risk will be for tornadoes as well.

-Andrew

Potential for Another Significant Severe Weather Event March 2

2012-02-29T15:56:00.000-06:00

The SPC has outlined another very large area of potential severe weather for March 2nd, only continuing to signal that spring has indeed sprung.

Discussion-
A 30% chance of severe weather on the Day 3 forecast is very concerning in my eyes. Frankly, I worry that this may very well end up like today, especially with the way the slight risk is angled in comparison to what has evolved today.
The 12z NAM is printing EHI values conductive for tornadoes to once again start in Oklahoma and Arkansas before moving into Tennessee/Kentucky and Indiana. This does mean that the threat may be slightly further north. There should not be much of a cap over the area that could prevent storms, so any that do fire would easily break any cap that would be present, as per the 12z NAM. Instability should be edging up around 2000 j/kg, which combined with moderately high EHI values, could easily make for a dangerous situation.
An even more concerning piece is the available shear, with SFC (surface) to 700mb level shear exceeding 50 knots, which is fairly high- about as high as what was forecasted for today. Shearing closer to the surface appears to be less of an issue, which would be a good thing for those fearful of tornadoes.
Helicity in general, not accounting for instability, will be pretty high and will be something to watch.

The GFS also appears to indicate something will be firing, but because the GFS is not equipped with the same indices as the NAM, I cannot determine if the GFS sees the threat better or worse than the NAM.

This whole deal is pretty eerie, as a lot of similar features appear to be coming extremely similarly together as they have with today's severe weather outbreak. This will certainly be interesting.

Here's my long range look at the tornado threat.

Any questions can be asked below.

-Andrew

EF-4 Tornado Hits Harrisburg, Illinois 6 DEATHS

2012-02-29T15:19:00.004-06:00

The NWS has indicated that an EF-4 Tornado was confirmed in Illinois from the severe storms that started yesterday and continue through today.

**6 DEATHS HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED**

***preliminary information only... assessment ongoing***

The following is an initial report in... from a damage assessment
ongoing for the city of Harrisburg in southern Illinois.

* Event date - Wednesday February 29 2012

* event time - 456 am CST

* event type - preliminary EF4 tornado

* event location - southern part of Harrisburg

* peak wind - estimated 170 mph

* average path width - estimated 200 yards

* discussion/damage - strip mall near wal Mart suffered major
damage. Additional information regarding damage... injuries and
fatalities will be added to this preliminary report... as will
path length. As of right now... the latest is 6 deaths have beenreported.

This is considered a continuous update post and will be updated as more info comes in.

Law Enforcement Warning (Highway Closure)- Duluth, Minnesota

2012-02-29T15:14:00.001-06:00

WIC003-010200- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDLAW ENFORCEMENT WARNINGMINNESOTA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY DULUTH MINNESOTARELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN306 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THEASHLAND COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT. THIS IS AN URGENT MESSAGE FROM THE ASHLAND COUNTY 911COMMUNICATIONS CENTER. U.S. HIGHWAY 2 IS DECLARED IMPASSABLE AND CLOSED BETWEEN SANBORNAVENUE AND STATE HIGHWAY 13 NORTH DUE TO EXTREME WEATHERCONDITIONS. MOTORISTS ARE TO USE THE DESIGNATED STATE HIGHWAY 137DETOUR. THE CLOSURE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

Stearns, Kentucky TAKE COVER

2012-02-29T15:06:00.001-06:00

This image depicts a possible tornado. If you are in Stearns, TAKE COVER!

Tornado Warning (Confirmed Tornado, Blown Transformers Seen)- PennyRile parkway, Kentucky

2012-02-29T06:49:00.000-06:00

626

WWUS53 KPAH 291245

SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

645 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

KYC107-149-177-291300-

/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120229T1300Z/

MCLEAN KY-MUHLENBERG KY-HOPKINS KY-

645 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL HOPKINS AND

SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN

MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY UNTIL 700 AM CST...

AT 640 AM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO CROSSING

THE PENNYRILE PARKWAY AT EXIT 44. BLOWN TRANSFORMERS WERE ALSO BEING

REPORTED. THE TORNADO WAS MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN

INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID

WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE

CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

LAT...LON 3715 8693 3725 8759 3742 8752 3744 8710

3737 8709 3734 8713 3734 8710 3738 8708

3737 8704 3735 8700 3727 8697 3726 8695

3718 8689

TIME...MOT...LOC 1244Z 277DEG 48KT 3730 8740

Tornado Warning (Tracking Confirmed Tornado)- Santa Claus, Indiana

2012-02-29T06:23:00.002-06:00

336

WWUS53 KPAH 291217

SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

617 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

INC147-173-291230-

/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-120229T1230Z/

SPENCER IN-WARRICK IN-

617 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL WARRICK AND

NORTHERN SPENCER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA UNTIL 630 AM CST...

AT 616 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A

CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES

SOUTHEAST OF FOLSOMVILLE...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF ROCKPORT...MOVING

EAST AT 65 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

LAT...LON 3799 8683 3797 8687 3792 8712 3810 8718

3821 8689 3821 8680 3800 8678

TIME...MOT...LOC 1217Z 252DEG 57KT 3803 8708

Severe Thunderstorm Watch: Effective NOW until 12:00 AM CST

2012-02-28T18:58:00.000-06:00

The Weather Centre
Mobile Storm Track Team (MSTT)
6:55 PM CST- February 28, 2012

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued by The Weather Centre for Central and Eastern Kansas effective now until midnight CST.

Discussion...
Radar has blossomed recently with very strong storms, including one with very strong rotation and additional tornado warning. This sudden burst of storms has led me to issue a short-term Severe Thunderstorm Watch. This watch is an upper level one, meaning an isolated tornado is possible. Our MSTT people have detected that these storms are only beginning to bloom. This will be worth watching before the real event starts up a bit farther south.

-Andrew

Tornado Warning- Hutchinson, Kansas

2012-02-28T18:33:00.002-06:00

379

WFUS53 KICT 290030

TORICT

KSC155-290100-

/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0001.120229T0030Z-120229T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

630 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN RENO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CST

* AT 626 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS

DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ARLINGTON...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF

KINGMAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

HUTCHINSON...PARTRIDGE...SOUTH HUTCHINSON...BUHLER...YODER...

WILLOWBROOK AND HUTCHINSON AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT

WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

LAT...LON 3817 9795 3817 9770 3813 9770 3796 9771

3776 9813 3790 9828

TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 229DEG 53KT 3790 9811

HAIL 1.75IN

Tornado Watch: 5:00 PM CST - 5:00 AM CST 2/28 to 2/29

2012-02-28T16:18:00.000-06:00

This was issued by The Weather Centre and not affiliated with the government.

The Weather Centre
Tornado Watch
4:10 PM CST - February 28, 2012

The Weather Centre has issued a tornado watch for east Oklahoma, west Arkansas and extreme southwest Missouri.

Discussion-
I have decided to go ahead and issue a tornado watch due to forecast high EHI levels and concerning hodographs shown on forecast soundings from the latest 18z NAM.
It looks like storms will start out in central Oklahoma and move eastward and intensify. As the storms move into the area now under a watch, I anticipate atmospheric spinning to take effect as the high EHI levels are present in the area. Instability is not particularly high, and for that reason I have not issued a Dangerous Tornado Watch. This would be a different story if we were in spring.
I did extend the tornado watch into extreme southwest Missouri, as any storms that fire ahead of the cold front may also hit Missouri. With the high EHI values, I feel that this move was necessary.

With this watch I am expecting...
•An isolated tornado (weak-moderate)
•Large Hail
•Damaging Winds Likely

Shearing will make for also another aid for possible rotation in the atmosphere, but the lack of any major instability I feel that this won't be a terribly huge player in how the tornado situation plays out.

-Andrew

Afternoon Prognosis

2012-02-28T15:52:00.000-06:00

TERMS TO KNOW:
Hodograph: A device measuring distance from its starting point as the device ascends through the atmosphere on a weather balloon. Circular shapes can indicate rotation in the atmosphere.
EHI: A combination of spinning and helicity to make for, in my eyes, the best attempt to forecast where apt tornado conditions may be.
CAPE: Instability. Values above 1000 j/kg can be conductive for thunderstorms.

Prognosis--
SPC has lowered tornado threat and eliminated the 10% tornado risk. At the same time, the 5% tornado risk area has expanded north.
The main issue is that this tornado threat, in my eyes, may still be needed.

Latest 18z NAM is indicating high values of EHI (spinning+instability equation that can help determine a tornadic atmosphere) present on the Oklahoma Arkansas border. At that same time, storms should be just beginning to enter that area, with the 18z NAM projecting these storms to be fairly weak. However, this weakness is likely understated- At the point in time in question, the squall line will be not be a line yet, but it will be a weakly put together line of separate storm cells. Judging by forecast high EHI values and CAPE above 1000 j/kg, this should be an interesting night.

Here's a comparison for forecast hodographs of the 18z NAM (left) and the 12z GFS (right). While the models are on different runs, I have affixed them to be at the same forecast time.
The 18z NAM is honestly pretty concerning, with two roughly circular shapes present in the forecast. To start off with the whole hodograph is concerning, as the hodograph shows a half circle shape before suddenly turning into two tight bands of circles. The sudden changeover to the circles makes me think that there may be too strong winds in the atmosphere to create a robust tornado, but that is dashed after the hodograph reveals the circular formations, both of which are likely indicative of a rotational motion in the atmosphere.
The 12z GFS is much more modest, having the hodograph take a similar half-circle-sudden-change path, but where the NAM shows the circles, the GFS shows it's attempt to make a circle, but believes that winds will be too tight for rotation to be shown. After that, the GFS hodograph shows it going off the screen but likely making a near full circle shape. Again, that is one of the more concerning features of this hodograph.

Midday Prognosis

2012-02-28T11:24:00.001-06:00

12z NAM Is printing a scary scenario this evening with dangerously high Helicity (1st image) and EHI (2nd image). Again, EHI is the spinning in the atmosphere plus energy in the atmosphere. Values over 1 are dangerous.

Since this is done from my phone, the Helicity image is the one with pink in the image.

Update this afternoon.
Andrew

Severe Weather Prognosis (2/28/12)

2012-02-28T06:45:00.000-06:00

As expected, the Storm Prediction Center did not issue a moderate risk for today, which in my eyes was a good move.
That does not, however, mean that the risk today will be zero. In reality, it is actually pretty substantial.
The first image is the overall outlook for severe storms in general. The second image indicates the chance for a tornado. I have come to learn that when there is a 10% chance of a tornado, a tornado can be reported in that 10% area. This time, however, that 10% area is so small that the chance of a tornado inside that 10% area seems lower than what it seems.

Prognosis-
A severe weather event is possible today in Arkansas, Missouri and west Tennessee, among other states. Forecast models indicate shearing levels between the surface and 700mb to be pretty sufficient on the GFS, with speeds of above 50 knots. However, this big shearing is in Missouri, with slightly lower speeds in Arkansas, thereby slightly reducing the tornado threat. Good shearing is also present in the surface-500mb area, but again, the big wind speeds are to the north and west of the main tornado risk put out by the SPC.

Precipitation should start this afternoon and congeal into something better than disorganized cells later in the afternoon/evening. An atmospheric cap will be over the area where storms break out, but it will be a very weak one, so these storms should easily break it.

An atmospheric cap is what's called CINH in the meteorology world. CINH is detected when a layer of warm air is present over the cooler atmospheric air up in the skies (warm air in the storms rises through the cool air over the atmosphere to make storm clouds and then storms.). If this CINH is too strong, the storms will be forced to stop at the 'cap' of warm air, as the air is too warm so the storms cannot continue rising through the atmosphere. This thereby 'caps' the storm and keeps it from getting stronger.

The tornado threat in Arkansas will be an overnight one, with maximum EHI (instability and spinning motion combined) values coming into the state at 3:00 AM CST. This is a very dangerous situation, as many will be asleep and not be able to hear a tornado coming. Additionally, tornadoes are much harder to be seen at night.

I will provide another update this afternoon. Stay safe everyone.
-Andrew

Prognosis on Feb. 28-29 Severe Weather Event

2012-02-27T15:28:00.000-06:00

Prognosis--

Latest short range models I am seeing are developing a fair squall line starting tomorrow around 5:00 PM CST, with the squall one forming later in the evening. The line looks to be separate storm cells congealed into a weak line formation. This would be okay for supercell formation, but radar returns really are not impressive. Some strong storms certainly look possible from this, but a devastating event is not in the books here.
Just glancing at radar returns from the latest short range models tells me that the least held together storm cells look to be present in east Oklahoma into Kansas and Missouri. After that, the tornado threat looks to weaken in Arkansas as the storms turn more linear and less of individual cells.

Opinion on SPC Day 2 outlook...
The SPC appears to be accurately portraying this threat, but I am not thinking that a 'moderate risk' level is necessary for tomorrow. The way the NAM is playing out things tells me that Arkansas will probably not get anything in a moderate risk atmosphere, but if the SPC does decide it is necessary, I think it would be a low level moderate risk.
However, the NAM is having surface winds at over 20 MPH across the entire potentially affected area, leading the way for possible wind shearing which would easily make the way for the threat of tornadoes.

February 28-29 Storm Discussion (2/26/12)

2012-02-26T09:31:00.000-06:00

Prognosis-

Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather on 'Day 3' (2 days away, because Day 1 is today, day 2 is tomorrow, etc.). This Slight Risk includes a 30% risk of severe weather in Arkansas, Southwest Missouri and East Oklahoma, with formidable risks still present in Northeast Texas and the rest of the aforementioned states.

A worry I have to start with is the tilt of the storm. Every storm has a tilt. There is a positive tilt, in which 500mb winds (seen above) will be strongest to the southwest of the system, or a negative tilt, where the strongest winds will be to the southeast of the system. This situation involves a negative tilt storm, and let me tell you why that is bad news.

Negative tilted troughs indicates that the storm has reached maturity and is at maximum strength. Additionally, negative tilted troughs will have cold air running over the warm air, which thus provides additional instability and makes for more severe thunderstorms.

These 500mb winds are also concerning, as the top wind speeds appear to be up to 110 knots, which equates to about 130 MPH. This raises the concern for wind shearing. With high winds at different height levels in the atmosphere, wind shearing can take place. This shearing makes the environment for tornadoes much more conductive than without shearing. Unfortunately, that appears to be what will be happening in this situation.

This is what's called a hodograph. Hodographs measure where the radiosonde is being taken by winds in the atmosphere, which are then used to tell if there is rotation in the atmosphere. A radiosonde is what is sent up in those big weather balloons by the National Weather Service. This hodograph is forecast for the time storms are to be present in Arkansas. This hodograph was based near Hughes, Arkansas.

In this hodograph, we see forecast strong lower level winds as the lines are very long from one number to the next. Notice how it begins to form a half circle shape, meaning that there is some form of rotation being detected at that point in Arkansas. Suddenly, the half circle stops and makes a full circle/square shape. This is exactly what no one wants to see.

What this complete shape means is that there is suddenly a very tight area of rotation in the atmosphere that could cause a tornado. No meteorologist ever wants to see that complete shape.

Moving on, the line then goes off the chart, but likely makes another half circle shape, again indicating some form of rotation may be present.

This hodograph tells us that there may be some tornadic activity in the area come February 28-29. I am concerned about that complete circle that was shown in the hodograph, and I believe that will be something to seriously watch.

The NAM is showing that there will be a lifting mechanism in place to get the storms going. This image portrays the Lifted Index, or LI. When the LI goes negative, it means that stronger storms are likely. When it is positive, it means that the atmosphere is more stable than not.

The Lifted Index here calculates to about -5 in Arkansas and Texas, which is some pretty good instability that could very well get those storms rocking.

The final index is the Energy Helicity Index (EHI). It calculates rotation + energy (CAPE) in the atmosphere to make one of the better indicators for potential tornadoes. Values over 1 are considered apt for tornadoes.

In this image, we see values of 1 to 1.25 in some scattered spots in Arkansas, leading me to believe that Arkansas will be where the strongest of storms happen and where the best chance for a tornado will be. I find it hard to believe that people in the Lower Great Lakes will get anything big out of this as there will be more limited moisture and atmospheric instability.

All in all, I suggest you keep a sharp eye on this. It could get interesting.

-Andrew

Brief Look into Winter 2012-2013

2012-02-25T18:06:00.000-06:00

Here are forecasted precipitation and temperature anomalies (respectfully) for DJF (December, January, February). These forecasts are from the Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis (ECCA) forecast system at the Climate Prediction Center.

For precipitation, the ECCA is projecting above normal precipitation across the northern US, but also majorly in the West US, where a 40% chance is present. For the North US, it looks like widespread areas of up to 10% are present. The same is present in the Northeast.

As for temperatures, it appears a major area of below normal temperatures are forecasted in the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, South Plains, Southeast, Northwest, Southwest. The High Plains and Northeast are slightly above normal, though.

This is simply a look into next winter and not a forecast.

February 28-29 Storm Discussion

2012-02-25T17:58:00.000-06:00

"Dynamic System Signals Spring's Commencement"

A dynamic system is poised to strike the US and bring everything from snow to possible tornadoes. Here's the latest:

Snowfall

The strong system that comes through will be cold on the north part, indicating that the event will be quite a snowy one. Accumulations at this point look to be pretty substantial, with this strong a system not keeping 12 inches+ out of the question. Then again, it is a bit too far out to forecast snowfall. Any snowfall should be wind driven, with this strong a system making for possible blizzard conditions in the Dakotas into Minnesota.

Severe Weather

There does look to be some severe weather possible with this system. Lower, middle, and upper level winds look to be pretty strong during this event, with 700mb winds possible reaching above 70 knots (80 MPH). A strong jet stream (over 130 knots (150 MPH) are possible) combined with a strong lower level jet stream (70 knots + possible) makes for a very potent tornado set-up in the spring and summer. However, it is late February. Thus comes the issue of lack of instability. Without instability and lifting mechanisms, it looks like this event will cause some possible brief spin-ups in north parts of the rain area, with some more potent rotation in the severe weather area.

Questions can be asked below.

-Andrew

Potential Severe Weather Event Feb. 28 (Issued 2/25/12)

2012-02-25T10:10:00.000-06:00

Top left image: 700mb winds
Top right image: 300mb winds
Bottom left image: 850mb winds
Bottom right image: Precipitation

The set-up for severe weather continues to intensify with major wind speeds at heights that are monitored for tornado development. If winds at any of the 3 wind images are high, it usually indicates a risk for some spinning motion in the air which could then cause tornadoes.
What the GFS is currently showing is a few clusters of storms that would then evolve into a squall line. Squall lines are traditionally unfavorable for tornadoes as they are cells in a linear formation, like trying to have car wheels turning inside a box. It just doesn't work.

It looks like this level of wind shear would be favorable for some tornadic activity, but it is impossible to predict where tornadoes will occur. These are just guesses.

There is the issue on how there is virtually no CAPE, or instability, forecast for the storms to use. Additionally, the Lifted Index (lift) and CINH (Cap that stops instability) are next to nothing, if nothing. The non-presence of those indices pretty much cancels any potential of severe weather. However, the way that this is mapped out tells me that a brief, weak tornado is possible. Thunderstorms will be likely as this is a squall line when you come down to it.

Potential Severe Weather Event on February 28, 2012 (2/24/12)

2012-02-24T16:57:00.000-06:00

I am closely watching the potential for some rare severe weather in the Midwest this upcoming Tuesday. Here's hour 114 of the 12z GFS.

Top left image: The top left image is 700mb wind speeds. The 700mb level is generally considered the area where 'jet streaks' (areas of strong winds within a jet stream) are found. Anyway, we see wind speeds of over to 70 knots, which equates to 80 MPH. 80 MPH is fairly strong for the 700mb level and can very well be conductive for severe weather. Seeing as this wind is flowing northeast, storms that form will be influenced and be moving northeast as well.

Top right image: The top right image is 300mb winds, which are the jet stream winds. In order for severe storms to form, there is usually a strong jet stream In this case, we have a jet stream of up to 130 knots present across a big swath of the Midwest, which equates to 150 MPH. 150 MPH is very strong and is nothing to mess with. To give you an idea of how strong it is, the jet stream present for the devastating April 27, 2011 tornado super outbreak was around 150 MPH.

Bottom left image: The bottom left image is 850mb winds. 850mb winds can detect how fast air flows, as the 850mb level is commonly watched for air temperatures at the surface. 850mb winds in this image show that wind speeds will be up to 70 knots+, which as shown above is over 80 MPH. Strong 850mb winds are usually pretty good for tornadic activity, so this will be something to watch.

Bottom right image: This is precipitation. In a couple images before this, the storms appear to form as a squall line turning into a cluster of storm cells. Multicelled storm clusters are typically the most dangerous and can be more conductive for tornadoes than squall lines. This will be something to closely watch.

We did pull up the best possible analogue picked out by the CIPS Analogue system, and here's what it has for severe weather reports from February 24, 2001.

As you can see, it was a pretty active day for severe weather, with 11 tornado reports, 99 wind reports and 59 hail reports. I can see this happening if it was moved north into the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes.

This could be a pretty serious event and will have to be watched.
Any questions can be asked below.
-Andrew

Long Range Forecast Update (2/24/12)

2012-02-24T16:17:00.000-06:00

Prognosis- Just took a look at the 12z GFS. It's looking like the infamous Alaskan Vortex will be returning in a week or so. Until then, expect progressive storm systems and ridges until about a week, when a more solid pattern of a ridge should set up. Thus, some quieter weather is probably in the books in the future.
Personally, this looks to be it for winter. I am seeing some dynamic storm systems that may give the North Plains a good surprise for snow, but other than that, I can't say things are looking too positive.

Any questions can be asked below.
-Andrew

February 22-24 Snowfall Event Wrap-Up

2012-02-24T15:59:00.000-06:00

Starting February 22, a strong 'Saskatchewan Screamer' system dropped from Canada and into the US. A Saskatchewan Screamer (SS) system is a storm system that forms in Saskatchewan, Canada, and quickly moves, or 'screams', through the US.

February 22, 2012 Surface Analysis at 03z

This is the surface analysis for 3z February 22, which is 9:00 PM CST February 21. We see the two parts of the storm- the Saskatchewan Screamer just northwest of North Dakota, and the storm system on the Oklahoma/Texas border. At this point, the storm is not of particular interest and not of particular strength.

February 22, 2012 Surface Analysis at 06z.

This is the surface analysis for midnight Feb. 22, CST. The Saskatchewan Screamer (which will now be referred to as System 1) is now racing into South Dakota with a central pressure of 998 millibars. At this point, it is of interest as the system is being strengthened by a jet stream that has winds at roughly 125 MPH. The jet stream of the 0z and 12z timeframes just before and after (respectively) of this surface analysis indicates that a strong trough had developed in the jet stream that had pushed it south. This trough in the jet stream tells me that its southward motion would continue, but the strength of the jet stream to the west would keep the southward movement also at an eastern movement, making for a southeast direction.

February 22, 2012 Surface Analysis at 12z

At 12z (6 AM CST), System 1 has now progressed into Iowa, keeping the main snows behind into the Dakotas. Central pressure indicates the system is at 999 millibars. Of more interest is System 2, now in Oklahoma. The central pressure is at 1005 millibars- not too strong. However, there is now a dry line in place that increases concern for severe thunderstorms. The presence of a warm front over what used to be a stationary front indicates that the warm air mass is now on the move and will now begin to displace other air masses, therefore instigating more thunderstorms along the front. Now, this would be a bigger concern if temperature differences were larger. Temperature readings (red numbers) north and south of the warm front are not too different from each other, thereby significantly lowering the severe weather threat.

After that, everything gets complicated as surface analysis maps do not clearly depict the system differences. However, it does come to point that the main snows begin to come back south towards the Lower Great Lakes.

February 23, 2012 Surface Analysis at 12z

A day later, the main system appears as a 989 millibar system. To watch now is the frontal system stretched from Kansas to West Virginia. Eventually, this cold front will turn into a warm front and move north as the 989mb system moves east into Missouri.

This warm front then becomes the focus for where snow will fall. Tight temperature gradients in the summer are typically the focus of thunderstorms. A temperature gradient is the difference of temperatures between points. This temperature gradient is also a good point for snowfall to occur in the winter. The gradient is also an area where snow banding sets up. This banding is typically where the heaviest of heavy snows fall.

In this situation, the temperature gradient (TG) appeared to set up in the northern half of Illinois. Yesterday afternoon, a line of precipitation moved north across northern Illinois. In areas of lighter precipitation, there was reported rain and a mix of precipitation. In the heaviest precipitation, very large snowflakes were reported to be falling. Accumulations of about an inch resulted.

In the aftermath of this band, it was mentioned by National Weather Service Chicago that this band of precipitation had indicated where the heaviest snow would fall overnight.
And that's where it became foggy.

The National Weather Service and RUC Short Range model were at odds. The RUC placed the heavier snows on the WI/IL border, while the NWS put Northeast Illinois in the heaviest snowfall. In the end, the RUC model won out.

Snowfall amounts were highest on the Wisconsin/Illinois border, where very isolated 8-10 inches were found. The National Weather Service became somewhat erratic in the first couple hours as the storm went on, with NWS Chicago suddenly lowering snowfall amounts and shifting the heaviest snowfall to right up against Lake Michigan.

The system then continued eastward with substantial strength. Again, the frontal positions were of issue, and snowfall amounts may have ended up slightly less than what is shown on here. The only reason that it is unsure is because the snow event is just ending.

If you have any reports, they would be appreciated below.
I am recovering from what may have turned out to be a brush with the flu and am feeling much better. Thanks to everyone who sent well wishes!

-Andrew

Rain-to-Snow Changeover Earlier than Anticipated

2012-02-23T14:39:00.000-06:00

Radar and observations are indicating that the changeover from rain to snow has happened. It was supposed to occur this evening, but now that it has changed over, I do anticipate snowfall accumulations to be higher than what is being shown on the models right now. In order for the models to recognize this unexpected changeover, I recommend not using the short range models until the 20z (2:00 PM CST) runs, which by then should have detected the early changeover.

Concerning Tornado Threat Present Today in North Kentucky

2012-02-23T08:49:00.000-06:00

day1otlk_1300.gif

I am concerned about the tornado threat in North Kentucky today. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined Kentucky, Tennessee, north Georgia and north Alabama, South Ohio and South Indiana in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms.

WB013_JETSTREAM300_HOUR_K_6.png

The GFS's forecast of the jet stream shows the Southern Jet and main Mid Latitude jet stream trying to intersect in Oklahoma. Notice how both jet streams back away from each other in Kentucky. When jet streams are forced away from each other (they would have come together in Oklahoma and stayed together through the rest of the country), it indicates a massive rising of air. In other words, a lot of instability in the atmosphere. Diverging jet streams are usually seen in the Spring and Summer with more powerful storm systems.

day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

The SPC outlines an alarming 10% risk of a tornado in north Kentucky. Now, the SPC outlines tornado risks at low levels because no one can predict a tornado. It is impossible. That said, I have come to learn that a 10% chance of a tornado outlined by the SPC usually results in a tornado in the outlined area.

A strong jet stream will not help matters. This strong jet stream will create a lot of turbulence in the region, meaning a more dynamic and unpredictable wind pattern that will likely become more conductive for rotation in the atmosphere.

NAM_218_2012022312_F06_36.0000N_87.0000W_HODO.png

Here is a hodograph. A hodograph is basically a tracer from the area it was released to the upper points of the atmosphere. A hodograph is attached to a radiosonde, which is the instrument sent up that is attached to those big weather balloons. Anyhow, when a hodograph comes back in a circular formation, it means that there is some form of rotation action occurring in the atmosphere. We can see a half circle shape in the lower parts of the atmosphere. (The height is characterized by the distance from the first point, which in this case appears to be the dot on the left half of the image.)

Snowstorm Now Aiming for Chicago, Detroit

2012-02-23T08:07:00.000-06:00

Well this is a whole new ballgame now.

It was only yesterday I was discussing how the storm would probably drop a few inches in Chicago, with some more in Detroit. Now take a look at Intellicast's 48 hour Snowfall Forecast.

ord_048.jpg

So last night, it turns out the NWS Chicago office issued a winter storm watch due to a sudden increase in snowfall forecasts. The Chicago NWS office is calling for a bigger swath of 6+ inches than Intellicast, but their graphic system appears to be having problems right now.

The system itself really is a clipper system, but is a very strong one. Alberta Clippers, commonly shortened to be called Clippers, are weak, fast-moving storm systems that drop from Alberta Canada. The system is moisture starved. That, combined with the progressive speed, leaves the storm to put down a few inches in a typical situation.

Now, the extensive winter storm watch that had been covering east Iowa has been cancelled. I personally find it pretty crazy. Here's why.
Yesterday, every NWS office except Chicago's had put down a winter storm watch. Late last night, the NWS Chicago takes the bait and also issues a winter storm watch. Now, this morning, every nearby NWS office except for Chicago has canceled their winter storm watch.

We will keep you up-to-date as this sudden snowstorm begins to take shape.

12z ECMWF Shows Superstorm in East Coast- But Will it Happen?

2012-02-22T19:23:00.000-06:00

12zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif

This is the 12z ECMWF at hour 192, displaying 850mb temperatures and sea level pressure. We can see a very strong storm system on the East Coast at hour 192. There is a lot of cold air in place over the entire Northeast so that significant (1 foot+) snow accumulations would be almost guaranteed.

But will it happen?

12zecmwfnao.gif

I say no. The same ECMWF model run that is showing this superstorm is also showing a major positive NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). A positive NAO will essentially make a ridge that diverts any storms away from the East Coast. Just simply using that, it is easy to see why this ECMWF run is flawed.
Other than the NAO, The Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) will be in a raging negative phase, indicating the likelihood of a ridge in the East and storm systems in the West half of the country.

Clipper System to Bring Up to 9 Inches of Snow to Wisconsin

2012-02-22T16:24:00.000-06:00

WB019_3HR_SNOWFALL_HOUR_E_13.png

The 12z NAM model is predicting a fairly strong clipper system hitting central Wisconsin in the next couple days. The image above shows 3 hour snowfall accumulations at 9:00 PM CST tomorrow. Up to 3 inches of snow in 3 hours is pretty much an inch of snow per hour, which is actually a pretty good rate.

WB019_SNOWFALL_CUM_HOUR_M_28.png

Total snow accumulations look to be up to 9 inches, with widespread amounts of 2 to 6 inches. Now, a local model that I glanced over did show snow accumulations of up to 4 inches coming in for the Chicago area.
It does indeed look like that the NAM model is too far north with this system after analyzing HPC-made forecasts.

That said, you can see the correct forecast by taking the snowfall strip, moving it south into central Illinois and central Iowa, and deducting 1-2 inches from all amounts as the NAM typically overestimates snowfall amounts by a couple inches.

-Andrew

Long Range Maps Indicative of Southeast Ridge Returning

2012-02-22T16:11:00.000-06:00

Here we have a map for 11 days out made using past analogues of similar situations. What is shown here are 500mb height anomalies. In the Southeast, there is a fairly large red area, indicating that the infamous Southeast Ridge may be returning.

The Southeast Ridge is a ridge of high pressure that is infamous for diverting storm systems away from the East Coast. What I am seeing here is the likely end of winter for the East Coast with this possible Southeast Ridge re-emergence.

Storm systems diverted away from the East Coast usually hit the Ohio Valley and/or the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes.

This is indeed long range, but will be something to closely watch as this could have major implications going into the end of February and beginning of March.

-Andrew

Notice

2012-02-22T15:17:00.002-06:00

Okay everyone, once again this cold is downing me with Round 2.
No posting for the rest of today- I feel like junk.

Have a good day.
-Andrew

ECMWF Printing Dicey Situation for East Coast

2012-02-21T16:04:00.000-06:00

ecmwf_temp_pmsl_f168.gif

The ECMWF is printing a potentially dicey situation for the East Coast in a possible severe weather event scenario. What we have here is hour 168 of today's 12z ECMWF. It is considered long range, so don't get too hooked on it.

This storm system looks to be a pretty well organized system, with a warm sector in front of it, pulling up warm, unstable air from the South as shown by the brighter colors being pulled towards the center of the storm. Another side of the storm is the following cold air, shown by the cooler colors in the Great Lakes. As shown in the spring and summer, severe thunderstorms do happen when opposing air masses collide. However, luckily, it is not spring just yet.

ecmwf_850mb_rel_hum_f168.gif

Here is the relative humidity forecast for hour 168. Relative humidity (RH) values at the 850mb level, which is shown here, are usually indicative of precipitation at the ground when values are 80 or higher. Let's take a look at the area where the storm may affect people. Much of Canada and the Great Lakes are under a big swath of 90% and greater RH values. This would most likely be the snowier part of the storm system.

Of more interest is the RH values along the East Coast. The way the RH values are positioned in a diagonal line of sorts along the Coast makes me concerned that the ECMWF is looking at a squall line forming. This really would not surprise me, with the warm sector being pulled out ahead of the storm system. The good news is that these RH values are between 60% and 90%, meaning that confidence in this possible squall line is low. The ECMWF does not publicly distribute precipitation charts, so these RH charts are the next best thing.

An area of 90%+ RH values does exist to the east of Pennsylvania. That does appear to be a rain event, judging by the 850mb temperatures and the proximity to the storms center. Again using proximity, it does not look to be a huge severe weather event, but some storms are possible offshore, as this blob of higher RH may be the warm front pulling up the warm air ahead of the storm.

ecmwf_850mb_wind_f168.gif

Lastly, we have 850mb wind speeds at hour 168. Meteorologists use this to determine if tornadoes are possible. In areas of higher wind speeds, this tornado risk is increased. Looking at the map, we see widespread wind speeds of 30 knots to 40 knots onshore, which is pretty low in terms of severe weather potential. Using this without looking at other wind parameters which also have a say in possible tornadoes, tornadoes seem pretty unlikely in my opinion.

Offshore may be a different story. The warm sector out ahead of the possible storms combined with maximum wind speeds of 60 knots just offshore the Northeast region tells me that waterspouts are not out of the question. Waterspouts are basically tornadoes on water, but with a lot less strength but still with damage potential. It is somewhat rare to have waterspouts hit land after forming at sea, and even rarer to have those waterspouts continue on land.

All in all, this doesn't look like a huge severe weather event if it does happen. The ECMWF does appear to be hinting at a possible squall line, which would provide some concerns, but again, nothing too major.

-Andrew

6-9 Inches of Snow Possible for South Wisconsin

2012-02-21T15:42:00.000-06:00

http://clients.customweather.com/plot_images/client_sites/WEATHERBELL/
NAM/WB019/final/WB019_SNOWFALL_CUM_HOUR_E_28.png

The 12z NAM is printing out 6 to 9 inches of snow in south central Wisconsin over the next 3 and a half days. This comes as the model projects a storm system to move through Southern Wisconsin and strengthen as it does so, with some additional, lower amounts coming from other small storm systems.

The main system in question will be a clipper system, meaning that little to no Gulf of Mexico moisture will be available to this storm. This provides some benefits and disadvantages. A big benefit includes the lessened risk of a dramatic rain/snow line, which thus cuts down on icing and also leaves more snow than rain. One of the bigger disadvantages, however, is how the strength of the system will be hindered due to the lack of Gulf moisture.

A caveat I am seeing with this storm is the presence of a low pressure area in the Southwest. The jet stream will be positioned to have little influence from the low pressure system. Influence meaning the jet stream being dragged south. And this is where the problems are. I see the potential that the models may be underestimating the jet stream's position, meaning that the jet may be farther south than what is being shown. This development would bring the system south and essentially do the same with snow amounts.

Any questions may be asked below.
-Andrew

Notice

2012-02-21T06:44:00.001-06:00

This was brought up to me in a comment yesterday, and I decided to see if anyone was interested.

I am open to having your weather blog post an article here on The Weather Centre so you can get your name out. I am also open to posting on someone else's weather blog.

Again, this is just throwing it out there, but if you want to post something on here or have me post something on your blog, comment below with your blog address so we might be able to work something out.

I am also open to any possible joint sponsorships with other weather blogs.

-Andrew

Personal Spring 2012 Severe Weather Forecasts

2012-02-20T12:00:00.001-06:00

Galena, Illinois
Tornado Risk: 20%
Hail Risk: 65%
Damaging Wind Risk: 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 35%

Maple Park, Illinois
Tornado Risk: 20%
Hail Risk: 65%
Damaging Wind Risk: 70%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 35%

Hamilton, Ontario
Tornado Risk: 10%
Hail Risk: 45%
Damaging Wind Risk: 65%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 25%

Belvidere, Illinois
Tornado Risk: 20%
Hail Risk: 65%
Damaging Wind Risk: 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 35%

Des Moines, Iowa
Tornado Risk: 30%
Hail Risk: 70%
Damaging Wind Risk: 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 40%

Milan, Tennessee
Tornado Risk: 40%
Hail Risk: 80%
Damaging Wind Risk: 80%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: Up to 50%

Linden, Virginia
Tornado Risk: 15%
Hail Risk: 55%
Damaging Wind Risk: 70%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 30%

Shady Spring, West Virginia
Tornado Risk: 15%
Hail Risk: 60%
Damaging Wind Risk: 70%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 30%

Holmesville, Ohio
Tornado Risk: 35%
Hail Risk: 70%
Damaging Wind Risk: 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 35%

Wappingers Falls, New York
Tornado Risk: 25%
Hail Risk: 65%
Damaging Wind Risk: 70%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: Up to 30%

Cincinnati, Ohio
Tornado Risk: 30%
Hail Risk: 70%
Damaging Wind Risk: About 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: Up to 35%

Toledo, Ohio
Tornado Risk: 30%
Hail Risk: 70%
Damaging Wind Risk: 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: Up to 35%

Homer, Michigan
Tornado Risk: Up to 30%
Hail Risk: 70%
Damaging Wind Risk: Up to 80%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 30%

Valparaiso, Indiana
Tornado Risk: 30%
Hail Risk: 75%
Damaging Wind Risk: 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: Up to 35%

Senatobia, Mississippi
Tornado Risk: 50%
Hail Risk: 85%
Damaging Wind Risk: 90%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 50%

Grand Rapids, Michigan
Tornado Risk: 30%
Hail Risk: 75%
Damaging Wind Risk: 80%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 30%

Kansas City, Missouri
Tornado Risk: 40%
Hail Risk: 80%
Damaging Wind Risk: 80%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: Up to 40%

Atlanta, Georgia
Tornado Risk: 45%
Hail Risk: 85%
Damaging Wind Risk: Up to 90%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 45%

Detroit, Michigan
Tornado Risk: 35%
Hail Risk: 70%
Damaging Wind Risk: 70%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 35%

Fort Wayne, Indiana
Tornado Risk: Up to 40%
Hail Risk: 75%
Damaging Wind Risk: 80%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 40%

Antwerp, Ohio
Tornado Risk: 40%
Hail Risk: 75%
Damaging Wind Risk: 80%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 40%

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Tornado Risk: 35%
Hail Risk: 65%
Damaging Wind Risk: 65%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 30%

Sterling, Illinois
Tornado Risk: 40%
Hail Risk: Up to 75%
Damaging Wind Risk: 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 35%

Brighton, Michigan
Tornado Risk: 35%
Hail Risk: 70%
Damaging Wind Risk: 70%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 35%

Mt. Shasta, California*
Tornado Risk: 10%
Hail Risk: 55%
Damaging Wind Risk: 65%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 10%
*Mountain severe weather is much harder to predict, so take this with a grain of salt.

Manhattan, Kansas
Tornado Risk: 55%
Hail Risk: 90%
Damaging Wind Risk: 95%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: Up to 60%

Bethel, Connecticut
Tornado Risk: 25%
Hail Risk: 50%
Damaging Wind Risk: Up to 60%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 20%

These are all estimates based on historical severe weather and ENSO conditions.

GFS Depicting Strong Early March Storm System

2012-02-20T09:38:00.000-06:00

http://clients.customweather.com/plot_images/client_sites/WEATHERBELL/
GFS/final_WB013/WB013_MSLP_RADAR_HOUR_M_82.png

The GFS is showing the potential for a major snow maker for the upper Midwest as well as a possible severe weather event in the Southeast to kick off March. It appears that the GFS is indicating this system will strengthen to 992mb in Colorado before sliding eastward and strengthening even more, this time with warm Gulf of Mexico air feeding in. This Gulf of Mexico air feeding in would enhance the potential for severe weather in the South, which already seems likely given the initial strength of the storm itself.

Because this storm is next month, don't bank on it. The GFS is notorious for showing long range storms that never come to fruition. Additionally, any forecast beyond 7 days should not be trusted. This is throwing out the idea that something could happen. It has been shown that, while this solution may not work out like shown, the model may be onto the general idea of a storm system in this timeframe.

Snowfall accumulations, if this did happen, would be pretty substantial, to say the least. A strong storm system combined with an open Gulf of Mexico makes for very ample conditions for dynamic weather events like thundersnow or tornadoes in severe weather. I cannot predict tornadoes or thundersnow, but that's just an idea of how a strong system and warm Gulf air can pair up.

-Andrew

Spring/Summer 2012 ENSO Forecast

2012-02-19T11:00:00.001-06:00

Hello everyone. The last 2 days have been dedicated to resting off one of my semi-annual colds, and it looks like i'm on the back end of it at this point. That said, I think it's time for the spring/summer 2012 ENSO forecast to be released.
This post will deal with several models and subsequent examinations of each model.

ECHAMA Model

ECHAMF Model

These are the ECHAMA and ECMAMF models, respectively. They are both based off of ECMWF forecasts which have been re-designated as climate models. I chose these two first as their ensemble members, first off come from the ECMWF and second, are the closest together of the bunch of other ENSO models.
The two ECHAM models are forecasting the Nino areas warming into a neutral phase by April, transitioning into an El Nino in June. I agree with this, as it is typical for the ENSO monitoring regions to warm in Spring and Summer. While the models do show the El Nino starting to fade going into September, I cannot say I am too inclined to believe that. This spring and summer may be a big warming that initiates the El Nino, but it is very possible that this warming keeps the El Nino into winter. It will either be an El Nino or neutral phase.

Ensemble Forecast for ENSO

The models put together paint a rough consensus of what should happen going into spring and summer. All of the models are agreeing that this La Nina will be fading into summer, but that's when the consensus stops. From there, the infamous CFS v1 and CFS v2 models keep the ENSO at neutral conditions for summer into fall, while the other, more accurate models are going for a neutral/El Nino solution.
We meteorologists use something called 'skill maps' when there are several models like this giving different solutions. A skill map basically outlines areas where the models have higher confidence than other areas. Using a skill map on the ECHAM models shows that the ECHAM models are fairly confident in a neutral/El Nino solution for spring/summer, while the CFSv1 is very insecure on a solution. Its next generation, CFS v2, is more confident in its solution than the CFS v1.

So let's say there is a weak El Nino into this winter (which seems like the likely option of an El Nino were to persist through fall). Here is what the precipitation anomalies would look like based on historical events of weak El Ninos.

This would feature below normal precipitation anomalies in the Midwest and parts of the Appalachian Mountain region, with above normal precipitation anomalies on the entire East Coast. This mainly tells me that a Weak El Nino increases the number of Nor'easter's for the East Coast.

Here's weak El Nino temperatures, which is basically a cool down of the entire eastern half of the US. Again, this is what would happen historically, which hasn't always verified, as Mother Nature has shown this winter. This image of below normal temperatures implies to me that there are constant arctic shots of cold air into the eastern US.

So what am I thinking?
I am feeling pretty confident that the traditional spring/summer warm up of the ENSO region will make for a very weak El Nino in summer/fall. I am also going to say that this El Nino will likely peak mid-late summer and start to move towards the neutral ENSO phase going into winter. The question is if the El Nino will prevail this upcoming winter or weaken into a neutral phase. That I cannot answer- these are just my ideas for spring/summer into fall.

Any questions can be asked below.
Remember, personal spring severe weather forecasts will be issued tomorrow!
-Andrew

(credits for weak El Nino historical temp/precip: Data originally from ESRL, image from GGWeather)

ENSO Forecast for Spring And Summer coming out at 11:00 AM CST

2012-02-18T18:29:00.001-06:00

Presidents Day Publishing Schedule

2012-02-18T18:26:00.001-06:00

Presidents day is coming up, and here is the schedule for posting:

-Personal Spring Severe Weather Forecasts
-StormTrack posts

February 18-20 Snow Event (2/18/12)

2012-02-18T09:40:00.000-06:00

I am keeping with the same amounts I called for yesterday, as amounts still look to total very close to what I have forecasted here. I do think that there is now a chance for the eastern portion of the 6-10 inch forecast area to be cut off a bit into a 3-6 inch area, with isolated 6-9 inch totals.
I still think that some minimal icing could occur, with maximum ice accumulations topping out at 0.10''.
My forecast yesterday was based off the NAM because I had little time to see the models. The NAM, which has shown to overdo snowfall amounts, actually falls into place fairly well with the 0z GFS, except for the snowfall close to the coast. I feel that amounts will likely end up a tad lower than what I have shown above due to water enhancement to help some of that snow possibly turn to icy conditions, or more likely, a wetter and thus lower amount of snowfall.

Any questions can be posted below.
-Andrew

-PNA/+NAO Combo Looking Unfavorable for Snow

2012-02-17T18:46:00.000-06:00

The 12z model suite is indicating that the window of opportunity for February potential snowfall is closing. The PNA is looking to drop into a raging negative phase, and the NAO looks to move towards a moderate positive phase. This combination is not a good sign for snow lovers.
Additionally, the 12z GFS ensembles appear to be showing the infamous polar vortex re-forming over north Canada, which would only continue to delay or even cancel any further snowstorms.

Amber Alert- Feb. 17, 2012- Re-Issued for South Illinois

2012-02-17T18:43:00.002-06:00

Child Abduction Emergency

ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-180130-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY AT THE REQUEST OF THE PALATINE, IL
POLICE DEPARTMENT.
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
519 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE CHILD
ABDUCTION EMERGENCY AT THE REQUEST OF THE PALATINE, IL POLICE
DEPARTMENT..

AT THE REQUEST OF THE PALATINE POLICE DEPARTMENT, THE ILLINOIS
EMERGENCY ALERT SYSTEM IS ACTIVATED FOR AN AMBER ALERT.

A CHILD...ERIBERTO PEREZ...WAS ABDUCTED FROM 430 WEST PALATINE
ROAD...APARTMENT NUMBER 1...PALATINE ILLINOIS LAST NIGHT...FEBRUARY
16...2012 AT 830 PM.

ERIBERTO PEREZ IS AN 8 YEAR OLD WHITE MALE...WHO IS 4 FOOT 10 INCHES
TALL...AND WEIGHS 100 POUNDS. HE HAS BLACK HAIR AND BROWN EYES. HE
IS WEARING A GRAY HOODED SWEATSHIRT...RED SHIRT WITH BLACK
SLEEVES...AND BLUE JEANS. THE CHILD WAS TAKEN BY WILLIAM CRUZ...WHO
IS A 30 YEAR OLD MALE WHITE. HE IS 5 FOOT 11 INCHES TALL...AND
WEIGHS 180 POUNDS.  HE HAS BLACK HAIR IN A CREW CUT...AND BROWN
EYES. HE IS WEARING A GRAY AND WHITE HOODED SWEATSHIRT...BLACK JEANS
AND WHITE NIKE GYM SHOES. HE HAS A TATTOO ON HIS RIGHT WRIST AND
ALSO HIS LEFT ARM. THE VEHICLE IS A SILVER 2001 CHRYSLER 4 DOOR...
WITH ILLINOIS LICENSE P...5...3...0...1...1...8.

ANYONE WITH INFORMATION SHOULD CALL 9-1-1 AND ADVISE THEY HAVE AN
AMBER ALERT REPORT.  THIS CONCLUES THIS AMBER ALERT ISSUED BY THE
ILLINOIS STATE POLICE.

$$

Severe Weather Potential- Feb 18 2012 (2/17/12)

2012-02-17T17:38:00.000-06:00

At 1:00 PM CST, the latest 18z NAM model is projecting a possible bow echo to be moving into Louisiana where it will congeal with other strong bands of rain and thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has put out a slight risk area for tomorrow, but the severe weather probabilities make me conclude that there is at least a chance that the risk could be upgraded to moderate.

Amber Alert- Feb. 17, 2012- Chicago, Illinois

2012-02-17T17:35:00.002-06:00

Child Abduction Emergency

ILC007-031-037-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-097-099-103-105-111-
141-197-201-180000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
ILLINOIS STATE POLICE SPRINGFIELD IL
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
514 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

...CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY AT THE REQUEST OF THE PALATINE POLICE
DEPARTMENT...

AT THE REQUEST OF THE PALATINE POLICE DEPARTMENT, THE ILLINOIS
EMERGENCY ALERT SYSTEM IS ACTIVATED FOR AN AMBER ALERT.

A CHILD...ERIBERTO PEREZ...WAS ABDUCTED FROM 430 WEST PALATINE
ROAD...APARTMENT NUMBER 1...PALATINE ILLINOIS LAST NIGHT...FEBRUARY
16...2012 AT 830PM.

ERIBERTO PEREZ IS AN 8 YEAR OLD WHITE MALE...WHO IS 4 FOOT 10 INCHES
TALL...AND WEIGHS 100 POUNDS. HE HAS BLACK HAIR AND BROWN EYES. HE
IS WEARING A GRAY HOODED SWEATSHIRT...RED SHIRT WITH BLACK
SLEEVES...AND BLUE JEANS. THE CHILD WAS TAKEN BY WILLIAM CRUZ...WHO
IS A 30 YEAR OLD MALE WHITE. HE IS 5 FOOT 11 INCHES TALL...AND
WEIGHS 180 POUNDS.  HE HAS BLACK HAIR IN A CREW CUT...AND BROWN
EYES. HE IS WEARING A GRAY AND WHITE HOODED SWEATSHIRT...BLACK JEANS
AND WHITE NIKE GYM SHOES. HE HAS A TATTOO ON HIS RIGHT WRIST AND
ALSO HIS LEFT ARM. THE VEHICLE IS A SILVER 2001 CHRYSLER 4 DOOR...
WITH ILLINOIS LICENSE P...5...3...0...1...1...8.

ANYONE WITH INFORMATION SHOULD CALL 9-1-1 AND ADVISE THEY HAVE AN
AMBER ALERT REPORT.  THIS CONCLUES THIS AMBER ALERT ISSUED BY THE
ILLINOIS STATE POLICE.

$$

February 18-20 Snow Event (2/17/12)

2012-02-17T15:50:00.000-06:00

Short range models are indicating the likelihood of a winter storm event occurring over the central Eastern Seaboard. Accumulations are expected to top out at 1 foot over southern WV and east KY. There is a small chance of icing. Any ice accumulations would top out at 0.10''.
I haven't had time to look at other models recently, but the short range models I have glanced over appear in sync.

2-17-12 Afternoon

2012-02-17T14:56:00.003-06:00

I severely underestimated my cold, which is now in full bloom. Thus said, There will be no further posting today while I rest up.
Sorry
Andrew

I need everyone to sign this

2012-02-17T11:46:00.001-06:00

https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions/!/petition/prevent-budget-cuts-national-weather-service/nQVPd4l2

I need EVERYONE to sign and share this petition to discourage MASSIVE budget cuts that would otherwise be enforced on the NWS, including total cut of funding for hurricane models.

-Andrew

2/17/12- Morning Briefing

2012-02-17T06:33:00.000-06:00

Contents of this morning briefing:
-Initialization Issues
-Surface Analysis
-Side Notes

0z Model Initialization Issues...
ECMWF/GFS initialized with little or no problems.
NOGAPS/GGEM initialized with little or no problems.

Surface analysis continues to indicate the storm system mess being pushed eastward while another system is brought down from Canada. It should bring clouds and maybe some precipitation to parts of the Midwest and Plains. The storm system that is being watched for Feb. 18-19 is currently in Mexico, just a bit west of the warm front that lines the Gulf Coast this morning.

Side Notes:
•In case you have not noticed, there are now Commenting Guidelines on the right sidebar. By commenting on this blog you are agreeing to those set terms that can change at any time without prior notice.
•I'm feeling pretty tired today, but should be able to kick out some posts. This looks to be a more mild cold, so full posting (and production of the personal spring severe weather forecasts) will resume soon.

-Andrew

2/16/12- Afternoon Briefing

2012-02-16T16:04:00.000-06:00

Well, luckily the cold hasn't hit head-on yet, so I should be able to keep on trucking for the rest of the day.

Contents of this Afternoon Briefing:
-Model Initialization Issues
-Surface Analysis
-Side Notes

12z Model Initialization Issues...
ECMWF/GFS initialized with little or no issues.
NOGAPS initialized with little or no issues.
GGEM is not favored this run.

Surface Analysis is showing the big jumble of low pressure systems moving to the east. There appears to be a minimal severe threat for the Southeast for the rest of the day. Strong High pressure will hold in place over the Plains.

Side Notes:
-I was looking over comments, and one indicated that there was a security issue with our Models page. If you did comment that, please comment below indicating what the problem is/was, as I take security very seriously (here is the comment).
-As I indicated, I may be on the verge of getting one of my semi-annual colds. They are very infrequent, but when they happen, they are usually on the stronger side. That said, posting will likely be on the downturn in the next couple days.
-For those curious why I am not favoring the GGEM, It appears that it initialized the system in Michigan wrong. That's about it.

-Andrew

2/16/12- Morning Briefing

2012-02-16T06:59:00.000-06:00

Morning everyone. I'm still on the verge of getting a cold, so don't expect too much over the next couple days.

Initialization Issues with 0z models...
GFS and ECMWF appear to have initialized with little or no problems.

Surface Analysis indicates the low pressure system is moving through Michigan, attached via several fronts to another jumble of low pressure systems. I'm thinking that there may be an opportunity for some severe weather if the warm front stretches out further east on the southernmost low pressure system. This opportunity may be increased further by the presence of an intersecting occluded front, warm front and cold front to make an infamous 'triple point', where some of the worst tornadoes have been recorded. I find that both these potential threat indicators will not be doing much to increase the threat as the warm front is too close to the low pressure system which then does not have enough time to bring up unstable air for strong storms.

Potential Future Storms...
There is some 'chatter' over a possible coastal storm over the next 7 days. Glancing at the NCEP ensembles gives me the feeling that this will be too far out to sea if current forecasts verified from the GFS. The ECMWF appears a tad slower and a tad weaker than the GFS for this storm as well, so I will leave the situation alone until a closer timeframe when things become easier to look at.

Notice

2012-02-15T20:25:00.001-06:00

Hey everyone, I'm sorry for not posting any updates. I just brought back a new pet and have been introducing it around. Also, it looks like I'm on the verge of one of my rare colds. Don't expect anything big soon.
Sorry again,
-Andrew

February 14-18 Snow Event- Model Discussion (2/14/12)

2012-02-14T06:45:00.000-06:00

Happy Valentines Day!

We re starting to see a southward shift in the models. Here's the last 4 runs of the GFS model.

You can see the trend south from earlier model runs using the color code on the bottom right. The storm we are tracking is the one going through South Missouri and Northwest Ohio. If this were to continue, cities such as Des Moines and Chicago may get in on the snowfall. That is yet to be determined, though.

However, some models are actually trending north...

CMC Model last 2 runs

The CMC Model has shifted north from it's last 12z run yesterday and now puts the system right over Chicago. I have yet to determine why and cannot this morning as I am unusually busy.

UKMET Model

Even though the CMC model is going north and the GFS is going south, the UKMET looks like it's taking neutral ground at this point. I think, however, that based on the proximity to the event occurring and model trending that I will be looking towards the GFS for guidance.

In these times of model turbulence it is important to see 0z verification to determine potential accuracy.

UKX- UKMET
NGX- NOGAPS
EMX- ECMWF

The models closest to the bottom of the image are the most accurate. Using that, we see that the ECMWF is the model to watch until hour 72, when the SREF Ensembles take over the show. The ECMWF has frames that are 24 hours in between, so it's hard to track the storm at this time. So let's see the SREF.

The 21z (0z) run of the SREF Ensembles are still split right now. And they have a right to be. While the event is only a couple days out, the models themselves are not exactly pulled together. This is the 0z SREF, which shows 2 possible paths- the CMC (North) path against the GFS (South) path. The UKMET is in neutral territory.

Here is the latest 3z (6z) SREF Ensembles. These ones have cut down on the northern path and appear to be headed for the GFS or UKMET solutions, which are the southern track and neutral territory, respectively. I have always liked using the ensembles, as a group consensus is worth more than a singular proposition.

Analogues can still come in use right now.
Here's snowfall from the March 7th, 1999 snowstorm.

This is my personal favorite, as it is using a La Nina phase for the analogue. This could very well be possible for the Midwest and Ohio Valley. I don't know about the northeast, I have to read up on it.

All in all, this storm should be very interesting. When new data comes in this afternoon, I will certainly let you know.

-Andrew

February 14-18 Possible Snow Event (Issued 2/13/12)

2012-02-13T16:00:00.000-06:00

Sorry for the lack of posts on this storm- the models got too confusing during the time period.

The 0z and 12z ECMWF has come back with the storm phasing in this timeframe, as I had expected may happen several days ago when I mentioned how models can revert back to the old track after shifting dramatically.

Here's the 12z ECMWF hour 72. At this point, we are close enough to the timeframe of the storm that this is probably going to happen, unless something dramatically changes (which would be very unexpected).
The ECMWF is showing a large warm sector of air being thrown out ahead of the storm, leading me to assume that this will be a rain to snow event for many just south of the IL/MI/NY border lines.

Since it is close enough, I have decided to bring back the analogues.
The 'best' analogue for this storm was in an El Nino phase, so I ruled that out. The analogue I picked out here has very similar conditions to what is forecast by the GFS. Here is what the 2nd best analogue (March 4th, 1982) had in terms of snowfall.

I think these 72 hour amounts are a bit too far south, but do seem reasonable nonetheless. As of now, because I don't have time to make a forecast, I think this is what I will be banking on for right now. It is very much subject to change, as other models do also have a say in this.

Just for kicks, here's what the top analogue (the one I discounted due to the El Nino) showed for snowfall from the February 15, 1992 snowstorm.

-Andrew

Surface Analysis- 6:30 AM CST (2/13/12)

2012-02-13T06:33:00.000-06:00

Surface Analysis indicates that much of the country is waking up to a cold morning today, with a strong high pressure system letting the cold air flow across the eastern half of country. The cold air has prompted Hard Freeze Warnings to be issued in Florida, among other cold-related weather bulletins.
There is a weather disturbance now ejecting from the CO/NM border. This system will continue to move eastward, eventually producing snow as it moves along. 2-4 inches of snow are possible in states like Missouri and Iowa, with 1-2 inches likely in Illinois and lower Wisconsin.
There are some scattered fronts and troughs across the Eastern Seaboard but nothing too major going on there.

-Andrew

StormTrack: Long Range- Active Weather Pattern (2/12/12)

2012-02-12T11:03:00.000-06:00

An active weather pattern will continue through likely the rest of the month as we see a deep low pressure system and a deep ridge fight each other in the Pacific.
What will happen is that this deep low pressure system will be shifting around but generally staying in or just west of Alaska. The ridge on the other hand, will be staying pretty much right where it is shown here. The ridge will occasionally be attempting to make a move north into Alaska to push the deep low pressure system away, but the low pressure system will push back, and in the process send out several storm systems that will ride the jet stream into the US. This means that there should be several potential snow-producers in the country over the next few weeks. I have marked the path of where most of the storms should go, with some wiggle room for storms to take a more southern pattern than what I have marked on here.
The point is that I expect to see a lot more chances for snow and severe weather in the next half of February. I am anticipating a battleground of sorts to set up as these storms push through to make for some strong to severe thunderstorm events, namely in MO/AR/TN/KY/MS, as well as some strong storms possibly stretching back into TX/OK.
The line that I have marked is not necessarily the jet stream, as I anticipate it to be more southerly than the line. The point I am getting across with the line is just the possible areas affected by this train of storms.

-Andrew

Feb. 14-18 Possible Snow: History Does Favor Snowfall (2/11/12)

2012-02-11T19:55:00.000-06:00

I was taking a look through some historical analogs of situations similar to the possible February 14-18 snow event, and came across an interesting fact: Set-ups with similar situations historically have favored snowfall in the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions.
This will be a description on the 'most favorable' historical analogue that fits into this storm.

During the analogue date (February 13, 2009), here were the teleconnections compared to forecasts for this storm:

ENSO: -0.7
Comparison: Fair

PNA: -0.5
Comparison: Too Much Model Instability to Determine Comparison

NAO: -0.4
Comparison: Fair

AO: -2.5
Comparison: Bad

Teleconnections are not that good in comparisons at this time, so this may not end up comparing to this analogue the best. But let's keep looking.
The thing I am seeing is that the general NAO forecast and analogue comparison should be at least 'fair'. This level of comparison ought to be sufficient enough to not impact the storm too much. A much different AO may make a difference, but likely just in the amount of cold air. The PNA may end up as the big player.

500mb analysis indicates that the analogue storm emerged from northern New Mexico. The forecast storm is looking to emerge from the same area. By 'same', I mean right on the New Mexico/Colorado border, just like the analogue storm.
There are some differences in relative humidities and jet stream strengths between the GFS forecast and the analogue storm. The jet stream looks like it will be weaker than what the analogue storm has in play. The relative humidity (RH) differences look to be wetter in the forecast storm, meaning some additional precipitation could be in play.
And here's what we've all been waiting for: The snowfall analogue map.

72-hour snowfall ending February 14, 2009

Snowfall is favored for this storm in Nebraska and Iowa.
Again, the teleconnections are not all figured out and may play a different role in this storm that is forecasted. Also, storms do not 'play by the rules' by any means, so this might not even matter in the storm's final result.

Any questions can be asked below.
-Andrew

February 13-16 Snow Event (2/11/12)

2012-02-11T13:51:00.000-06:00

A storm system will be moving from the Plains out east, putting down snow in the Plains, Midwest and Northeast.
The storm system appears to emerge from the Plains and put down anywhere from 1-6 inches in the eastern Plains, mainly in Iowa and Missouri. This will be the high point of the storm. Although it will have access to Gulf moisture, the latest 12z GFS model indicates that 700mb relative humidity levels should be very low for a storm of this level, thus the lower snowfall amounts. There is indeed a 'possible' marking for the 3-6 inch accumulations, as the 3-6 inches may fall in scattered pieces in the area I have marked out.
There will be an icing potential in Arkansas into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. As we approach the date of the storm I feel that the amount may have to be increased. Thus a possible denotation has been marked for the icing area.
Models are still having a bit of a time trying to handle the storm, with the CMC and GFS butting heads on placement of cold air, which will ultimately determine the biggest snows and icing zone.
Side note: Disregard the 3-6 inch region in Maine for the time being.

-Andrew

Building Evidence for Active Severe Weather Season

2012-02-11T11:44:00.000-06:00

Here is a randomly selected image of today's 6z GFS Ensemble mean 500mb height anomalies. The run time does not matter. What matters is what is being shown on the image.

There is a ridge positioned in the North Pacific, right under a strong low pressure system. Occasionally, this ridge will try to make a move towards Alaska but is being blocked by the strong low pressure system. These two opposing forces appear to be sticking around for a while. What the strong low pressure system does is throw storm systems down into the US, seen by the blue areas in the US. Another thing to notice is the potential jet stream. Look closely at the eastern US. Can you see a tight area of lines? While this is the 500mb level, not the 300mb level, it can be determined that within that region a stronger than normal jet stream is present.

Let's skip ahead into March and April.

If this pattern sticks around, here is what we will see: A constant stream of storm systems being thrown at the US. These systems strengthen as they gather energy from the above-normal temp. Gulf of Mexico. The warm, humid sector out ahead of the storm, combined with a strong jet stream, would easily make for a tornado/severe thunderstorm event.

Luckily, Spring is a time of change the atmosphere goes through. The lucky part is how this change ought to break down one or both pieces of the Pacific Block (not an actual pattern name, the 'Pacific Block' I am referencing is the semi-permanent high pressure and low pressure systems).

Even so, this semi-permanent low pressure system over the Pacific will likely stay put in the Pacific and continue to throw storm systems towards the US. This continues to increase the potential for some active spring weather.

Any questions may be asked below.

Side note: The personal spring severe weather forecasts have been delayed for a little while. My apologies.

~Andrew

February 14-18 Possible Snow Event (Issued 2/11/12)

2012-02-11T09:35:00.000-06:00

The new 0z model suite is suddenly showing something of a consensus for this piece of energy. The GFS and NOGAPS models are showing the storm going through central Illinois and NW Indiana before riding the Great Lakes and into New York. While time frames are not exactly the same (a few hours difference), that is more than expected with this long range of a storm. The models are not the only things to look at, so let's get on with the show to the ensembles.

Here are the GGEM (CMC) ensembles from the 0z model suite. Some of the members are indeed showing the storm going through any part of the state of Illinois. However, most of the members are centered in the bottom 2/3rds of the state of Illinois. Because it is so far out I am not going to bite on it, but I am definitely interested with this sudden consensus.

This is the NOGAPS collection of ensemble members, also called FNMOC Ensembles. Again, the NOGAPS Ensembles are showing the possible storm going anywhere from Tennessee into Wisconsin, but the majority of members are tracking the storm through South Illinois, North Tennessee, Indiana, Ohio. This is an interesting image, as NOGAPS appears to have a lot of ensemble members, and a lot of them are indeed projecting the storm to actually go through the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

Finally, here are the 0z NCEP Ensemble members. They are a little more cautious than the NOGAPS Ensembles, with some members taking the storm through all of Illinois, north Ohio. The 0z GFS is once again showing the storm going through the Midwest and Ohio Valley, but now much weaker. This may be what I have seen the models suddenly go south with a storm but eventually re-emerge the storm north to where it was originally forecasted to go. That does not happen every time, but has happened before.

You may ask questions on if you will get snow as I am feeling more confident than yesterday with this new possible consensus.

~Andrew

Northeast Great Lakes Could Pick Up 4 inches of Snow Today

2012-02-11T09:14:00.000-06:00

(Accumulations are in millimeters, so click here for a millimeters to inches converter.)

As an arctic cold front moves out of the East US, the lake effect snow machines are kicking into high gear. The Northeast in general should see about a half inch to 2 inches- nothing major. However, closer to the Great Lakes, this particular model is forecasting up to 80 millimeters, or just over 3 inches, for western New York.

February 14-18 Possible Snow Event Discussion (2/10/12)

2012-02-10T17:45:00.000-06:00

This is a model analysis.

In case you haven't heard, the ECMWF is now in its turbulent phase, taking one piece of energy up the Northeast and the other piece who knows where.

Here's the gist of the possible storm.
•There may be 2 pieces of energy involved.
•The past ECMWF images I had been posting was a solution where they phased, or combined as one.
•The models are not good with possible phasing of storms.

Let's start out with the GFS.

GFS Extratropical Cyclone Tracks

This is the 12z run of the GFS model. We see the current GFS run as well as the past 2 runs of the GFS. The most recent run is in red, the second most recent is in orange, and the least recent is in green. That said, you can see just how much the model has fluctuated in just 2 runs from green to orange. Notice how there is no red line where the orange line is (the orange/green lines indicate the piece of energy we are watching). I cannot determine why, but I am thinking it will be taking a very similar path to the 2nd most recent GFS (orange) track in the south just by looking at the actual model run images. Due to the massive fluctuations the GFS is experiencing I am not going to go along with its forecast this time around.

NCEP Ensemble Cyclone Tracks

These are the NCEP Ensemble Individual Member extratropical cyclone tracks. What I am seeing here is a lot of members wanting to go with the southern solution. That is, take the piece of energy in question, ride it through the south, and re-emerge it north and ride it up the Eastern Seaboard. The NCEP Ensemble Control forecast disagrees in one way, taking a more northerly path while still going with a southern solution like the ensembles. This far out, even with ensembles, I am not going to take these opinions just yet.

CMC Ensemble Cyclone Tracks

As I had previously explained, there may be two pieces of energy involved in this system. The 12z GGEM (CMC) model run may have showed both pieces but did not end up phasing them. instead, the CMC model took one piece on a southern solution, much like the NCEP Control member, and made for a big snowstorm in Ohio. The CMC Ensembles took possibly that same piece of energy and instead diverted it north, through central Illinois and Missouri, before shooting north through Michigan and well into Canada. The individual members agree with this control member, showed in pink. I am still not biting, as the models remain very turbulent.

12z NOGAPS Ensembles

What we have here are the NOGAPS model ensemble members. I know it looks like a giant jumbled mess, and it is hard to understand and pick out which tracks are for which storms. I am seeing the lines from southern Wisconsin to Tennessee moving northeast as the lines for the storm to watch. Needless to say, the ensembles are very confused with the storm, as are all models and ensembles right now. However, the NOGAPS ENS appear to be pushing for a more northern track than what other models may be showing.

Something I have learned is that sometimes models can take a storm way south and eventually correct its forecast of the storm back north to where it previously was. I have found that this can work with any model. This may hold true for both the ECMWF and GFS models, which both at one point showed the storm affecting the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

You may ask questions if you would like, but please do not ask questions of if your area will get snow or how much will your area get, because right now I honestly don't know. I don't have enough time to delve deep enough and get a good feel for the new model flips.

~Andrew

StormTrack: Long Range- Alaskan Vortex (2/10/12)

2012-02-10T16:03:00.000-06:00

Something I look to for support in forecasting is the Alaskan Vortex. It is a low pressure system that sits in the Gulf of Alaska and typically makes for warmer weather over the US. Recently, we have been seeing a ridge over that region. So here's the forecast for 108 hours out.

12z GFS Hour 108 500mb Height Anomalies

See the dark blue on the upper left hand corner of the image? That is a key player in the forecast. That is a form of the Alaska Vortex. Check out how there is a ridge (orange) stretched out into Alaska trying to make a move. This low pressure system will see the ridge and beat it down, and I expect this pattern to go on for a while, where a ridge tries to move north but the low pressure system beats it down. This ought to lead to some more active weather as the two opposing factors (ridge and low pressure system) fight each other and try to get to Alaska, which appears to be the place to be.

Here's 500mb height anomaly forecasts produced by the ESRL forecast agency. The ESRL is showing a strong ridge to be present in much of the Pacific for the 6-10 day timeframe, which is what this image is for. However, notice the darker blue colors in west Alaska. What this could easily do is manipulate the polar jet stream to throw some systems from the big vortex out east into the West US, which is likely why we are seeing the darker blue colors in west/central US. (For verification, blue colors are a general stormier pattern and red colors are a general quieter pattern.)

~Andrew

February 14-18 Possible Snowstorm (Issued 2/9/12)

2012-02-09T16:00:00.000-06:00

I am in awe at the consistency of the storm strength that the ECMWF has been trending with, so let's get down to it.

12z ECMWF Hour 216

For the past at least 6 model runs, the ECMWF has been consistently showing a strong storm system impacting the Great Lakes and Midwest. In case you did not know, the ECMWF is a very reliable model in these times of model instability (which have moderated recently, for some models). Seeing this trend of a strong storm in the Ohio Valley only increases my confidence in this actually occurring.
Not seeing much of a change from yesterday's 12z runs, as the ECMWF portrays two storm systems phasing into one massive storm system in the Plains that moves north.

12z ECMWF ENS Hour 192

Today's 12z ECMWF Ensembles show there is still room for change, with the ensembles showing the storm being a more progressive one than the ECMWF model itself is showing. It also does not phase the two systems, which essentially takes power out of every aspect of the storm- warm air advection north, cold air following the storm, precipitation, etc. I do feel that the presence of the storm on the ensembles is a reassuring one, however, and believe that there is a good amount of confidence right now of having this system happen.

12z ECMWF ENS Hour 216 500mb Height Anomalies

I found this image of 500mb height anomalies at the time of the storm. What I am seeing is a big ridge in the Pacific that could very much be a key player here. The reason it is disrupted is due to a low pressure system moving along, but I am paying attention to the main ridge and imagining it without the low pressure disruption in the Pacific Ridge, as the low pressure system really doesn't make a difference- it's the big ridge that counts.
Analyzing the ridge leads me to see that the ridge favors possibly going into the Western US. This would lead into a +PNA-like storm track, which would happen if we didn't have a monster ridge just south of Greenland. What this ridge will do is essentially lift the jet stream north and slice through the Northeast. This slice would bring the jet stream from North Texas through Tennessee and dashing north into Pennsylvania/Ohio. This is indeed the solution that the operational ECMWF is showing.

Model Tips & Caveats
•This is still long range, so the models are subject to major changes.
•The ECMWF has been trending very long, adding a lot of support to forecasting.
•The GFS has been flip-flopping, so I do not want to use it.

Looking through the latest PNA and NAO forecasts from the ESRL/PSD and NCEP agencies on the left and right sides respectively, I'm not seeing anything major. The PNA is forecasted by the NCEP (basically the GFS) to be positive, which could lead to a little ridge over the west US. At the same time, the ESRL/PSD is showing the PNA to be negative. Due to the inconsistency, I do prefer to not comment on it right now.
The NAO forecasts are having slightly better agreements at this point, showing a strong negative NAO around mid month going back neutral around the storm. Seeing as the storm will be arriving when a strong -NAO is just leaving, I would think that some effects of the -NAO would still be lingering. This is agreed by some characteristics of the ECMWF ENS/ECMWF OP models and ensembles. (ECMWF ENS are the ECMWF Ensembles, while the ECMWF OP is the ECMWF model itself.) While both ECMWF ENS/ECMWF OP do not show a -NAO in their calculations, look back to that strong ridge just south of Greenland in the 500mb height anomalies image I showed earlier. A +NAO is characteristic of a trough of low pressure south of Greenland. The height anomalies show a ridge south of Greenland. I believe that this inadvertently shows a -NAO still lingering but not shown in the model forecasts. This would still keep parts of the Northeast in the game.

I am opting to not show the PSD ESRL Ensembles as I cannot confirm that the storm is in the right timeframe or if it even exists in those ensembles.

My Preliminary Thoughts
I'm liking the way the ECMWF has been handling this. While the ECMWF ENS may still be a tad shaky, I am really liking the way the ECMWF has been trending the storm, while keeping the same general placement and strength of this storm through the past several runs. Trending is always a good sign, especially on such a reliable model like the ECMWF. If I had to put a VERY PRELIMINARY guess % chance on if this storm will occur, I would put it at 35% due to model uncertainty in other models and the long range-ness of it, but increased by the ECMWF's trending.

Side Notes:
Tom Skilling, reputed meteorologist in Chicago, IL and a personal favorite meteorologist of mine, has been talking up this storm for the past couple days. He is not one to hype storms at all, so him talking about it this far out is grabbing my attention.

If you have any questions you may ask them below. They will most likely be answered tomorrow morning.
~Andrew

The Weather Centre- Quality Weather Forecasting for the US

March Long Range Severe Weather Outlook

Tornado Warning (Hook Echo, Tornado Indicated)- NW of Moody Air Force Base, Georgia

Forecast Comparison to the Result (March 2 Tornado Outbreak)

Tornado Warning (Significant Damage)- West of Billingsley, Alabama

Overnight Tornado Threat Overview

LIVE Updates

Thank You

Rest of Afternoon Tornado Outlook

Tornado Warning- North of Huntsville, Alabama

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE- TAKE COVER!!

Tornado Warning (Tornado Confirmed)- Nashville, Tennessee

Notice

Tornado Warning (Tornado Indicated)- Pickens, Kentucky

Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch #62

Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch #58

Special Analysis - 3:30 PM CST

Tornado Warning (Hurricane Force Winds)- Caneyville, Kentucky

Tornado Warning (Tornado Spotted)- Mount Washington, KY

Tornado Warning- St. Leon, Indiana

Tornado Emergency (Large, Violent Tornado on Ground)- Walton, Kentucky

Tornado Warning (Strong Rotation)- Richmond Municipal Airport, Kentucky

Tornado Warning (History of Tornadoes)- Sparta, Kentucky

Tornado Warning (Hook Echo Sighted)- Waverly, Tennessee

Potential Tornado- Campbellsburg, KY

TORNADO EMERGENCY- CARROLTON, KY

Prognosis #2

PDS Tornado Watch #2

Tornado Warning for Bryson City, TN

PDS Tornado Watch #1

Tornado Warning for Middlesborough, TN

Tornado Warning for Chattanooga, TN

Tornado Warning for La Follette, TN

Tornado Warning for Spring City, TN

Notice

Prognosis

**HIGH RISK FOR TORNADOES TODAY**

Significant Severe Weather Episode Today (6:45 AM CST Discussion)

Updated Morning Discussion will be issued at 6:45 AM CST Tomorrow

3/1/12 Evening Prognosis

Dangerous Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Tomorrow

**Moderate Risk Issued for Tomorrow, March 2**

Potential for Another Significant Severe Weather Event March 2

EF-4 Tornado Hits Harrisburg, Illinois **6 DEATHS**

Law Enforcement Warning (Highway Closure)- Duluth, Minnesota

Stearns, Kentucky TAKE COVER

Tornado Warning (Confirmed Tornado, Blown Transformers Seen)- PennyRile parkway, Kentucky

Tornado Warning (Tracking Confirmed Tornado)- Santa Claus, Indiana

Severe Thunderstorm Watch: Effective NOW until 12:00 AM CST

Tornado Warning- Hutchinson, Kansas

Tornado Watch: 5:00 PM CST - 5:00 AM CST 2/28 to 2/29

Afternoon Prognosis

Midday Prognosis

Severe Weather Prognosis (2/28/12)

Prognosis on Feb. 28-29 Severe Weather Event

February 28-29 Storm Discussion (2/26/12)

Brief Look into Winter 2012-2013

February 28-29 Storm Discussion

Potential Severe Weather Event Feb. 28 (Issued 2/25/12)

Potential Severe Weather Event on February 28, 2012 (2/24/12)

Long Range Forecast Update (2/24/12)

February 22-24 Snowfall Event Wrap-Up

Rain-to-Snow Changeover Earlier than Anticipated

Concerning Tornado Threat Present Today in North Kentucky

Snowstorm Now Aiming for Chicago, Detroit

12z ECMWF Shows Superstorm in East Coast- But Will it Happen?

Clipper System to Bring Up to 9 Inches of Snow to Wisconsin

Long Range Maps Indicative of Southeast Ridge Returning

Notice

ECMWF Printing Dicey Situation for East Coast

6-9 Inches of Snow Possible for South Wisconsin

Notice

Personal Spring 2012 Severe Weather Forecasts

GFS Depicting Strong Early March Storm System

Spring/Summer 2012 ENSO Forecast

ENSO Forecast for Spring And Summer coming out at 11:00 AM CST

Presidents Day Publishing Schedule

February 18-20 Snow Event (2/18/12)

-PNA/+NAO Combo Looking Unfavorable for Snow

Amber Alert- Feb. 17, 2012- Re-Issued for South Illinois

HIGH RISK FOR TORNADOES TODAY

Moderate Risk Issued for Tomorrow, March 2

EF-4 Tornado Hits Harrisburg, Illinois 6 DEATHS