Friday, February 4, 2011

Close Date of the 2010-2011 Winter Forecast Pages

The Date where the 2010-2011 Winter Forecast pages will be deleted is MARCH 1ST.

2011 Spring Forecast for the US




This is the 2011 Spring Forecast for the United States. The Canadian and European forecasts will be issued at a later date.

I based this forecast off of a model called the CFS, which is an extremely long range forecast.

APRIL FORECAST
In April, I do expect the atmosphere to be relatively dry across much of the United States. As humid air begins to pump up from the Atlantic into the Southeast US, it will be met with a large dome of dry air that prohibits the moist air from reaching the other areas of the United States. While the humid air eventually does climb more north, it may ignite storms along the area where the dry air and humid air collide. Below, I have depicted a graphic on where the strong storms can be expected for April.
The reason I say relatively dry air is, due to the possibility of this model underestimating how slow the winter air mass moves off, this forecast may be a bit inaccurate and the US may be more humid than anticipated,
For temperatures, due to a continuing La Nina, I do expect frost to be quite common across the United States, as outlined in the below map.
This La Nina will continue throughout the Spring.

MAY FORECAST
The May forecast gets better over much of the country, as the humid air prevails over the United States and overpowers the retreating winter air mass that hasn't already left.
A special concern over this period is a very dry air mass over the Mexico/South Central US region. With a mess of humid air right next to that dry air mass, severe storms may constantly ignite on this border whenever some sort of disturbance comes. Below is the Severe Storm Forecast.
This forecast will be edited a couple times as it is only early February. A page will be posted with this forecast.
The Winter Forecasts will be removed on March 1st.

North IL Peak Wind Gusts

CHICAGO LAKEFRONT 70

BURNS HARBOR 67

WAUKEGAN HARBOR 63

PONTIAC 61

CHICAGO OHARE 61

AURORA 59

ROMEOVILLE 59

CHICAGO MIDWAY 58

WEST CHICAGO 54

LASALLE/PERU 53

WAUKEGAN 53

CALUMET 53

JOLIET 52

DEKALB 52

ROCHELLE 49

KANKAKEE 49

WHEELING 49

ROCKFORD 48

LANSING 47

MICHIGAN CITY 46

MIDEWIN 44

STERLING 43

VALPARAISO 43

MORRIS 43

Final North IL Blizzard 2011 Totals

LOCATIONAMOUNTCOUNTYHighland23.9Lake, INBeach Park 1.4 W22.5Lake, ILAddison 5NNE22.5CookElk Grove Village22.0CookWestchester22.0CookInverness 1.7 S21.3CookWoodstock 5NW21.1McHenryDowners Grove21.1DuPageSpring Grove21.0MchenryGrayslake21.0Lake, ILMidway 3SW20.9CookSchererville 2 WSW20.4Lake, INWaukegan 2.2N20.2Lake, ILChicago O'Hare20.2CookWillowbrook20.1DuPageMendota20.1LaSalleLincolnwood 1.8 E20.0CookPark Forest20.0CookAntioch20.0Lake, ILSt. Charles20.0KaneDe Motte 1.2 SSW19.7JasperPortage 0.9 ESE19.5PorterHoffman Estates 4.6 W19.5CookLake Zurich19.5Lake, ILCrown Point 2.0 WSW19.0Lake, INLaGrange Park 0.7 SSW19.0CookNorth Aurora 1.5 NE19.0KaneHebron 3.7 NE18.9PorterOak Brook18.9DuPageMundelein18.7Lake, ILDeKalb18.7DeKalbNaperville18.7DuPageElburn18.5KaneWorth18.1CookBarrington 3SW18.0CookJoliet 2NW18.0WillWatseka 5.3 W17.5IroquoisChicago Ridge17.4CookLakes of the Four Seasons17.3PorterPontiac17.0LivingstonOak Park 1.5S17.0CookWauconda17.0Lake, ILChesterton 4E17.0PorterBeecher16.9WillPorter 0.6 S16.7PorterPlainfield 4SW16.5WillBartlett 1.0 SSE16.5DuPageStreamwood16.5CookRomeoville16.4WillHammond 3 SW16.2Lake, INBull Valley 2.5 WNW16.1McHenryPeotone 0.4 ENE16.1WillChatsworth 0.4 ESE16.0LivingstonDwight16.0LivingstonHarvard16.0McHenryGeneva 1.6 ENE15.6KaneLincolnshire 0.9 N15.5Lake, ILBatavia 1.3WNW15.4KaneByron 3.2 N15.0OgleLisle 1.3 SE15.0DuPageStreator 3.7 ENE15.0LaSalleOttawa 1.6 N14.6LaSalleMontgomery 0.8 SSE14.5KendallPoplar Grove 4.8 NNE14.5BooneNew Lenox 1.8 SE14.4WillRockford14.3WinnebagoPolo14.1OgleAurora 3.6 SE14.0DuPageYorkville 2SE14.0KendallLoves Park14.0WinnebagoRichton Park14.0CookPalatine 1.3E13.7CookValparaiso 1.8 NW13.6PorterSugar Grove 0.7 NE13.5KaneLaSalle13.1LaSalleHuntley 4.3 W13.0McHenryRochelle13.0OgleBourbonnais12.7KankakeeJoliet 2N12.3WillRemington11.9JasperBatavia11.7KaneAmboy 0.5 ESE11.7LeeValparaiso 5NNE11.7PorterPeru11.6LaSalleCoal City 4NNW11.5GrundyChesterton 1.4 ENE11.5PorterChicago Botanic Gardens11.1CookWatseka 0.9E11.0IroquoisFairbury11.0LivingstonValparaiso 5.5 SSW10.7PorterYorkville 0.7 NE10.5KendallPaxton10.5FordRensselaer10.4JasperRensselaer 6.2 SE9.0JasperWheatfield 2.8 S8.7JasperSt. Anne8.2KankakeeKankakee7.6KankakeeMilford 5NW6.5Iroquois