The 12z run of the GFS has brought to our attention something potentially significant. This GFS run shows 3 storms (on the stronger side) all going through Central/South Illinois over the course of 16 days. Of those 3 storms, only 2 are considered in the realm of possibility- the 3rd storm is forecast about 13 days away. 13 days away is not reliable in the least.
What does this mean?
If this 12z GFS run verifies, it very well could be a new part of the LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle). The LRC is a pattern that sets up between the October 1st period and November 10th period. This LRC is an annual occurrence and is NEVER THE SAME. While it may possess similar traits as the year before, no one pattern is ever the same. Since we are in the LRC forming timeframe, this does ultimately lead to the question: Is this going to be a pattern for the entire winter??
We will keep you updated with a post on the new 18z run that will come out shortly.
What does this mean?
If this 12z GFS run verifies, it very well could be a new part of the LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle). The LRC is a pattern that sets up between the October 1st period and November 10th period. This LRC is an annual occurrence and is NEVER THE SAME. While it may possess similar traits as the year before, no one pattern is ever the same. Since we are in the LRC forming timeframe, this does ultimately lead to the question: Is this going to be a pattern for the entire winter??
We will keep you updated with a post on the new 18z run that will come out shortly.