Friday, June 3, 2011

No Evening Tropical Discussion

Unfortunately, we are unable to issue an evening tropical discussion.
But to keep you at ease, nothing major happened over the course of today.

June 3- Tornado Warning- Bayfield, MN (TAKE COVER NOW)



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL ASHLAND COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
  NORTHEASTERN BAYFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 848 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
A TORNADO NEAR BAYFIELD...
  OR 16 MILES NORTH OF ASHLAND...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THIS VERY DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MADELINE ISLAND BY 855 PM...
  OAK ISLAND BY 900 PM...
  STOCKTON ISLAND BY 910 PM...
  MICHIGAN ISLAND BY 915 PM...

IF YOU ARE IN BAYFIELD TAKE COVER NOW!!!!

June 3- Mesoscale Discussion

There is potential for a watch to be issued for north Wisconsin in the next few hours. The severe weather threat appears to be increasing.

One concern I have about the severe threat is how there is light, ongoing precipitation in North Wisconsin which I believe should stabilize the atmosphere. Should this continue, there would definitely be a dent in the supposed severe weather threat.
While we will monitor this and a watch will likely be issued, I do not believe portions of it will be warranted.

June 3 Severe Weather Discussion

Upper Midwest region...
A strong low pressure system located in Canada will be dragging a warm front north and east through the Midwest and Great Lakes today. We can expect some showers and embedded thunderstorms as the warm front interacts with the cooler air as it passes through the areas mentioned.
Following closely behind that warm front will be a cold front. They will likely be the initiating force of these storms.
While a cold front would initiate the intense thunderstorms associated with expected high CAPE values, it's looking like the RUC and Rapid Refresh short range models just don't agree with this prospect.
I believe this is a more conditional slight risk threat due to high CAPE values. I will forecast scattered showers with potential isolated thunderstorms, but that's it. There's just not enough time for the warm air to surge up and destabilize the place in a classic set-up before the cold front sweeps through again.

Central Plains...
Attached to the cold front mentioned above will be a weak low pressure system. This low will remain stationary and hold the back end of the cold front in place as the Canadian low pressure system also mentioned above moves east.
The cold front is anticipated to stretch out horizontally and even produce some showers and thunderstorms in the See Text area. These storms are not anticipated to be severe.

Southeast...
It is expected that some pop-up storms will occur in the Southeast today, but I do sense that this may be a  somewhat conditional threat as well. The storms look to appear due to a stationary front, and that does seem like a storm producer. The reason I say somewhat conditional is because the short range models aren't doing much in the way of severe weather with this front. Sure, some pop-up storms will occur, but in a slight risk prospect, not much.

Today's hail outlook

Today's damaging wind outlook

Today's tornado outlook

June 3- Tropical Cyclone Morning Discussion

Storm System 1- System to the east of Mexico

The storm system to the east of Mexico has gone down 10% to about a 0% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.
I had been issuing some talk about this system crossing Mexico and then reorganizing potentially as a tropical cyclone in the East Pacific.
However, looking at the system now, it seems to be stripped bare right down to the core of the low pressure system itself. Should it limp across Mexico and emerge in the East Pacific, there may be potential for tropical cyclone formation.

Unfortunately, we do not have the models available at this time as they have not been updated.

Storm System 2- Near Central America

The storm system near Central America has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 2 days. However, the NHC again outlined the potential for tropical cyclone formation beyond that period as upper level winds die down in the vicinity of that storm.
As of right now the storm system is very disorganized and will likely stay that way for at least the rest of the day.

June 2- Tropical Cyclone Extended Evening Discussion

STORM 1- System located to the east of Mexico

The storm system to the east of Mexico has gained 10% since this morning in chance for development into a tropical cyclone. This is for increased circulation in the center of this storm system.
As for where the storm system will go, there is a good consensus that the storm system will make landfall on Mexico, cross Mexico and re-enter the game in the East Pacific. I am concerned with the potential that this storm could become a real contender for a tropical cyclone formation when it re-enters the East Pacific from recent intensity forecasts below.
This image is concerning. This is because the SHF5 model in red has appeared to won out over the other models to form a general consensus that a tropical storm at minimum is likely going into the East Pacific.
That said, I believe it will be necessary to issue bulletins going into the June 5 and beyond period.