A look at the latest NAM supercell composite (a map trying to identify where supercells may occur) has caught my eye in a bad way.
As you and me can see, there is a big swath of very elevated supercell risk over much of the Lower Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
That parameter doesn't spike up often, so when it does, there is definite concern.
However, when we look at the Significant Tornado Parameter, it stays well to the south of the Supercell Composite swath.
In conclusion, it appears the risk for tornadoes will be south, while the risk for supercells will be heightened to the north.
As you and me can see, there is a big swath of very elevated supercell risk over much of the Lower Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
That parameter doesn't spike up often, so when it does, there is definite concern.
However, when we look at the Significant Tornado Parameter, it stays well to the south of the Supercell Composite swath.
In conclusion, it appears the risk for tornadoes will be south, while the risk for supercells will be heightened to the north.