Thursday, August 4, 2011

Notice

We have aligned The Weather Centre and taken down the 2011-2012 winter outlook page and weather models page.
However, you can find them by clicking on their respective images on the right sidebar.
Please comment on this post if you find any inconveniences with this change.

Notice

Unless Tropical Wave Emily regenerates, The Weather Centre will be ceasing posts on Emily.
There will be NO 10:00 PM Update

August 4: Current Weather- 8:30 PM CDT

Looking at our current weather around the nation, we have a stationary front in the Southeast producing strong to severe showers and thunderstorms. The main threats are wind and hail, with a very unlikely tornado chance. Stretching north, we have some clouds covering the Midsection into the Midwest, where a low pressure is producing disorganized showers and storms. Out in the Rockies, scattered showers and storms roam the area. This comes as a low pressure system is stationed in the southeast portion of Colorado, with a trof into New Mexico and Arizona. Another low pressure with an associated trof is stationed on the Montana/Wyoming border. Up into Montana, a stationary front evolves into a cold front into the Dakotas region, where a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect. There is a very outside chance of a tornado, but wind and hail are main threats. We expect scattered storms to evolve on the front, with the most potential for tornadic storms right around the front.

Breaking News: August 4: TS Emily Dissipates

Tropical Storm Emily has dissipated. It is unknown if regeneration (coming back to life) will occur.
We will update you at 10:00 PM.

August 4: TS Emily could dissipate into tropical wave today (3:00 PM Update)

NHC Latest Advisory


TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
200 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA TAKING A TOLL ON EMILY...CYCLONE COULD
DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 72.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO...AND ALONG THE
NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCIS TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI. 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF SANTO
DOMINGO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EMILY IS LOSING ORGANIZATION AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM
EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/H. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILY...OR
ITS REMNANTS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI
LATER TODAY AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND
EMILY COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND OVER
SOUTHERN HAITI. IF EMILY SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE OVER HAITI...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WOULD REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD
POSSIBLY REACH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...AND 2 TO 4 FEET WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA IN THE BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

August 4: TS Emily Possibly Weakening, Models Still Rampant (11 AM Update)

Over the nighttime hours, Emily's center of circulation (COC) developed some storms near that area. That will help to shield the storm, but not for long ad it supposedly moves over the Hispaniola area. Notice how the COC is not on land of the Hispaniola area. This could indicate a more westerly track, but at this time, it's very hard to figure out.
Statistical models

Dynamical Models
In the above two images are statistical and dynamical ensembles. They are each comprised of their own sets of models. Statistical models usually go by historical reference and do not take into account of any atmospheric wind patterns and the like. Dynamical models do take that information into account, are run on supercomputers, and are therefore more accountable and reliable. The statistical models do prefer a Gulf of Mexico (GOM) track. But remember what i just said of how they don't take into account wind patterns. The dynamical models prefer Emily to keep to itself and slingshot out to sea.
This is a combination of both statistical and dynamic models. This is for the latest run (12z/ 7 am CDT). We see the statistical models shooting at the Gulf of Mexico, but there are also possibly some dynamic models trying to move Emily further westward into Florida.
The NHC official forecast continues to push easterly even as models prefer a slightly westward approach than the NHC allows for its forecast. The real test will come at 8 pm EDT tonight. If Emily begins a sharp turn NW, then the NHC forecast will probably be right. But if Emily tracks further west, the chances of a US landfall increase with every hour.
GFS Trends

NHC Trends
What we have above are trends, which put recent runs of a model together into one map to see how the forecast has evolved in recent cycles (model runs). The GFS model has been steadily tracking westward, a good sign for those who want some rain in the US. The same goes for the NHC trends, but notice how the NHC has been doing it much more hesitatingly than the GFS. That does signify that the NHC operators may be more knowledgeable than we know at this point, and may not want to move their forecast because of unknown reasons.

We will keep you up to date with the 2 pm CDT UPdate.

Give me a moment

Sorry for the lateness of the 11 am update. It is in production right now.

Notice August 4, 2011

The regularly scheduled 10 AM CDT TS Emily update will be postponed until 11 AM CDT for lack of information.