It's So Hot that...

...that you could cook a steak in 2 hours on a car dashboard in Oklahoma City 2 days ago.

Noticeable Cooling in ENSO regions- July 21 ENSO Update

Latest global SST (Sea Surface Temperature)

Data taken from the latest global SST analysis indicates all ENSO regions (outlined in blue) are undergoing a cooling process which could be a sign of another La Nina.
Atmospheric conditions remain telling of La Nina conditions, and in recent weeks, SST and underwater temperatures have been rapidly cooling down.
In weekly animations of the ENSO SST's, it is very noticeable that this cooling has been occurring over the last month, if not more.
As of right now, information has been streaming in, consisting of potential of a West Based La Nina, which would basically torch the East US temperature wise and be the opposite of what we had last year. Obviously, this will be subject to a lot of change, and we will issue more updates as needed.

2011-2012 Europe Winter Forecast

Europe will be in probably the same state as last year.
The big question is whether the expected La Nina will be 'East-Based' or 'West-Based'. Last year, there was a strong East Based La Nina. That made south Europe be cold, and SE Europe had above average precipitation, while north Europe had a less harsh winter than 2009-2010.
Right now, it's too far out to tell, but because it will likely be a La Nina that happens this winter, we will go with an East Based La Nina.
Another edition will be released this fall.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #667

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
   600 PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
   HOULTON MAINE TO 25 MILES WEST OF BANGOR MAINE.  FOR A COMPLETE
   DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

MCS in Nebraska/Iowa (July 21)

The Weather Centre is monitoring a MCS (storm cluster) moving across Nebraska into Iowa and into South Wisconsin.
This storm cluster is moving along the cold front. This cold front will eventually move into the North Illinois, North Iowa, and similar areas tonight into tomorrow. Some showers and storms will move along the front in that time frame, with some of them possibly becoming elevated, and a small chance of them becoming severe. We will monitor that situation.

HurricanEye-July 21 Briefing

Hurricane Dora is currently a Category 4 hurricane with maximum winds of 140 MPH and minimum central pressure of 942 millibars. Dora is moving northwest at 13 MPH.
Dora's intensity forecasts indicate she will be weakening soon, which is a good solution as Dora is heading towards cooler waters.  Ensemble tracks pretty much go along with the NHC track. There are currently no watches or warnings in effect for the Baja California or Mexico, but rough surf is expected.

Bret is currently a tropical storm with maximum winds at 40 MPH and central pressure of 1007 millibars. This does indicate Bret may be losing its strength in the inner cores of itself. Bret is moving northeast at 8 MPH. Intensity forecasts agree Bret will be losing strength, but all of them never actually bring Bret below 20 MPH. Bret is in cooler waters and is weakening. Ensemble tracks pretty much agree with the NHC forecast.

The development of Cindy was a major surprise to the meteorological community. NHC and ensemble tracks are in pretty good agreement, but the ensemble members carry the system out east and possibly turn it around back towards the south. Intensity forecasts aren't too impressive, but there is a small probability that Cindy will turn into a hurricane. Cindy's maximum winds are at 60 MPH, central pressure at 1002 millibars, moving northeast at 28 MPH.