NAM STP Outlines Oklahoma as Hotspot May 19

The NAM has outlined portions of Central Oklahoma as having potential for a localized tornado outbreak in May 19.

More information about this to be issued this afternoon.

May 17 Severe Weather

DISCUSSION
Longwave trough will move through the warm sector in the East Coast, where 60 degree dewpoints will reside. Modest low level heating and upper level cooling will make the case for strong, sustained updrafts this afternoon. Sufficient low level SRH and deep layer flow will potentially create multicells and relatively low topped supercells. The threats expected are wind damage and an isolated tornado, with a marginal severe hail threat.
Down into the Carolinas, another shortwave will pivot eastward towards the region. With thermodynamic profiles inside a fairly moist airmass, a wind/hail threat cannot be ruled out with isolated severe storms.

There is potential for brief supercellular storms or organized storms in the Plains.

Today's Hail Threat

Today's Tornado Threat

Today's Wind Threat

May 17: Place to Be- Austin, Texas

Today's Place to Be is Austin Texas.

Austin:
HIGH- 85
Weather- Mostly Sunny
Wind- SE 5-10 mph.