Happy 2 Year Anniversary!

Yesterday was The Weather Centre's 2nd anniversary, but today was what I consider the real anniversary.
I want to thank everyone who has come here and viewed or commented anything here. It really means a lot. I hope this is 2 of many years of weather to come.

Thanks again,
Andrew.

Reminder: The May 2012 Outlook comes out tomorrow!

NAM Projecting Severe Weather Threat to Continue into Tomorrow

This is a composite reflectivity forecast for roughly 7:00 AM CDT tomorrow morning. As you can see, a broad area of strong storms are expected in the north Illinois/south Wisconsin region.
Make note that composite reflectivity is theoretically the maximum power a storm has. That said, this does not appear likely to verify, but some strong storms are still possible in the areas mentioned before.

On a side note, as the cold weather makes a very unwelcome return, it just so happens that I may be coming down with a little something. A nuisance at best at this point, but this is just a heads up if posting becomes scarce in the next few days (I don't expect it to).

Andrew

Tornado Watch #194

Tornado Watch #194 has been declared for eastern Kansas until 9:00 PM CDT this evening.

Discussion
Compact yet intense low pressure area is currently in place over western Kansas. Wind analysis indicates intense wind spinning in that area, leading to likely spinning in the atmosphere. 700mb and 300mb maps also indicate the presence of a storm system in the area.
Current radar is indicating a strong storm cluster in north central Kansas, as well as a couple 'popcorn' cells along the western edge of the tornado watch box. These will likely be the supercells that will have to be watched.
Modest instability is in place. With the close proximity of the frontal boundary to the watch box, a tight temperature gradient combined with a fairly intense wind field are making for fair tornado conditions.

Moderate Risk Issued for Today, April 27

Tornado Threat

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk of severe weather for eastern Kansas into western Missouri for this afternoon due to an increased tornado risk.

Surface analysis charts indicate that winds are flowing steadily into western Kansas, indicating the presence of a disturbance in the area. 500mb analysis confirms the presence of a small yet intense low pressure system currently sitting over western Kansas.

The radar below is real-time. Blue boxes are severe t-storm warnings, and red boxes are tornado warnings. Stay safe everyone.