Thursday, May 19, 2011

May 19: Potentially Hazardous Incident (9:16pm CDT)

The Weather Centre is watching the area delineated above in bright red for the potential of another sort of watch. This comes as the lower level jet increases during the night, providing shearing for these already tornadic thunderstorms.
The Weather Centre advises anyone in the bright red box to do the following:
-Make preparations for a potential tornado watch
-Have emergency supplies prepared in advance
-Keep a weather radio on tonight to warn you of warnings.

May 19: Tornado Warning (Very Strong Rotation)- Hargrave, Kansas


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 845 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 3 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF HARGRAVE. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  50 MPH. QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BISON...LIEBENTHAL...SCHOENCHEN...LORETTA...PFEIFER...MUNJOR AND
  TOULON.

May 19: Tornado Warning (Brief Tornado)- Concordia, Kansas



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
848 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  EASTERN CLOUD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 833 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO.
  THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM STILL APPEARS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO. AT 842 PM CDT...THE STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
  OF AURORA...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CONCORDIA...MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLYDE...
  MORGANVILLE...
  VINING...

May 19: Tornado Warning- Loveland, OK


SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
823 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

OKC141-200130-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-110520T0130Z/
TILLMAN OK-
823 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
TILLMAN COUNTY...

AT 823 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES WEST OF
LOVELAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HOLLISTER AND LOVELAND.

Unable to post tornado warnings for next half hour

I will be unable to post tornado warnings for the next half hour.
If you live in Oklahoma, N. Texas or areas north of Oklahoma, keep all eyes to the skies.
Turn on TVs Radios to keep up to date.

May 19: Tornado Warning- Lincoln, Kansas


000
WFUS53 KICT 192324
TORICT
KSC105-200000-
/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0017.110519T2324Z-110520T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
624 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 622 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
  DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LINCOLN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BEVERLY AND BARNARD.

May 19: Tornado Warning (Funnel Cloud, Strong Rotation)- Gracemont, OK


000
WFUS54 KOUN 192327
TOROUN
OKC015-200000-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0029.110519T2327Z-110520T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 626 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRACEMONT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SPOTTERS CONTINUE TO OBSERVE A
FUNNEL CLOUD IN THIS AREA AND RADAR SHOWS STRONG CIRCULATION. A
TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ALBERT...COGAR...EASTERN FORT COBB
  RESERVOIR...FORT COBB...GRACEMONT AND LAKE CHICKASHA.

ClimateWarning: Global Land-Ocean Temperatures increase .8 degrees Celsius

Over the last 130 years, global temperature averages have risen by .8 degrees Celsius, or 1.44 degrees Fahrenheit.
As global warming continues to wreak havoc on the Earth, we at The Weather Centre are taking a more climate friendly approach to our weather blog by occassionally posting statistics relating to global warming.
They will be under the tag 'ClimateWarning'.

Weather News: CPC NOAA Predicts 'extremely active' Hurricane 2011 Season

Below is the official NOAA Press Release


The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:
  • 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
  • 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
  • 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
“The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “However we can’t count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook.”
Climate factors considered for this outlook are:
  • The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
  • Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average.
  • La NiƱa, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season.
“In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook does not predict where and when any of these storms may hit. Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches. For each storm, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center forecasts how these weather patterns affect the storm track, intensity and landfall potential.
“The tornadoes that devastated the South and the large amount of flooding we’ve seen this spring should serve as a reminder that disasters can happen anytime and anywhere. As we move into this hurricane season it’s important to remember that FEMA is just part of an emergency management team that includes the entire federal family, state, local and tribal governments, the private sector and most importantly the public,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate.
“Now is the time, if you haven’t already, to get your plan together for what you and your family would do if disaster strikes. Visit ready.gov to learn more. And if you’re a small business owner, visitwww.ready.gov/business to ensure that your business is prepared for a disaster,” added Fugate.
Hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline; strong winds and flooding rainfall often pose a threat across inland areas along with the risk for tornadoes.

Storms fail to bring maximum strength- moderate risk cancelled (May 11)

The storms that were forecast to hit Central OK/KS hard did not turn out as expected, and the moderate risk was cancelled by the SPC.

The SPC verifies this by indicating weather models were not handling the already ongoing storms well, thus the moderate risk was pulled.



However, the Midwest was expanded on for the slight risk as storms appeared to contain more power and threat than anticipated.

At this time, strong storms with a primary hail threat and decreasing wind

May 19: Tornado Warning (Tornado On Ground)- Near Sylvan Grove, KS


000
WFUS53 KICT 192211
TORICT
KSC105-167-192245-
/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0015.110519T2211Z-110519T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
511 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 509 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
  SYLVAN GROVE...OR 16 MILES WEST OF LINCOLN. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
  THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LINCOLN...SYLVAN GROVE...BARNARD...BEVERLY AND ASH GROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND

May 19: Tornado Warning- Cooperton, Oklahoma


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE...EASTERN KIOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CADDO
COUNTIES...

AT 440 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
COOPERTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE
STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF KIOWA COUNTY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF COOPERTON. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KIOWA...AND FAR NORTHWEST COMANCHE
COUNTIES.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE COOPERTON.

May 19: Tornado Warning- Near Luray, Kansas


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSBORNE
COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 434 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LURAY...OR 40 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BELOIT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL OSBORNE COUNTY.

May 19: Tornado Warning- Russell, Kansas


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
  DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUNKER HILL...OR 11 MILES EAST OF
  RUSSELL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LUCAS...SYLVAN GROVE...WILSON LAKE AND ASH GROVE.

May 19: Place to Be- Birmingham, Alabama

Todays Place to Be is Birmingham, Alabama.

Birmingham
HIGH- 83
Weather- Sunny
Wind- South 5 mph.