Tornado Watch #180

A tornado watch has been issued for east Missouri and southwest Illinois until Midnight CDT.

As of now, several individual strong thunderstorms are in the watch box. Because of the proximity of a strong lower level jet stream and cold front supporting a somewhat linear formation, these storm cells do have tornado potential. If they go linear into a squall line, however, then this potential drops.

Tornado Watch #179

A tornado watch is in effect for much of Arkansas until midnight CDT.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are raking the state of Arkansas at this time. They are somewhat linear, but disorganized enough so cells can be individualized. These storm cells may become tornadic as a tight lower level jet stream is in the vicinity.

Tornado Watch #178

A tornado watch is in effect for southern Minnesota, northern Iowa and western Wisconsin until 11:00 PM CDT.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the watch box at this time. With the close proximity of a warm front and storm system, wind shearing and instability is expected, thus sparking thunderstorms, some of which may be tornadic.

Mesoscale Discussion #554

A watch is being considered for Northern Illinois, including Chicago and Rockford, IL.
As the lower level jet stream strengthens and moves east, this will provide some push to get storms going. Thunderstorms are already ongoing in western Illinois, so these storms should arrive in northern Illinois by around 7:30 PM CDT and wrap up around Midnight.

Preliminary Analysis of April 14, 2012 Tornadoes

This is a preliminary analysis, as not all tornado reports have been confirmed.

FORECAST VERIFICATION

Forecast Graphic

Reports from Outbreak

Verification: Good-Very Good
Reason: The southern part of the risk verified nicely, but early storm initiation was just outside the high end levels of the graphic. The northern section did not verify too well, which brought down the preliminary verification grade. However, some Iowa tornado reports were enclosed in the graphic's mid levels. Considering there were not as many reports in that area of Iowa, it was an OK verification for that area.

Reports:
EF-3 Tornado was confirmed in Wichita, Kansas.
EF-4 Tornado was confirmed in Kanopolis Lake, Kansas

Ever seen a storm moving 90 MPH?

999
WUUS53 KLSX 152124
SVRLSX
MOC019-051-135-152200-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0088.120415T2124Z-120415T2200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
424 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
WESTERN COLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
MONITEAU COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 422 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELDON...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 90 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE
DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALIFORNIA...ASHLAND...COLUMBIA...HIGH POINT...RUSSELLVILLE...
MCGIRK...CENTERTOWN...ST. MARTINS...JAMESTOWN...EASLEY...MIDWAY...
ENON...LATHAM...LOHMAN...ELSTON...KLIEVER...MARION...HARTSBURG...
SANDY HOOK AND WILTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9265 3869 9262 3908 9243 3897 9214
3890 9217 3888 9215 3841 9240 3842 9241
3843 9263 3852 9274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 205DEG 76KT 3835 9262

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$


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NWS Warnings Provided by AllisonHouse.com

Moderate Risk of Severe Weather Today

Overall Risk

Hail Risk

Tornado Risk

Damaging Wind Risk

A moderate risk area has been issued for Southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and the western half of Wisconsin. Current expectations are for discrete supercells to develop out ahead of the cold front this afternoon. These supercells may promote tornadoes as they roll through. Later on in the afternoon and into the evening, a squall line is expected to traverse the slight risk area as the cold front makes its appearance into the picture.
Now is the time to prepare. Make sure you have all your tornado preparedness items in place in the event you need to take shelter if a tornado approaches.

Andrew

Significant Damage in Woodward, Oklahoma

I am getting late breaking word that significant damage has been sustained in Woodward, Oklahoma, with reports of fires and other significant damage. More to come.