Tuesday, May 31, 2011

May 31- Cloud Tops in Grand Rapids, MI reach up to 55,000 feet

Cloud tops in Grand Rapids, MI have reached up to 55,000 feet with the storms occurring, especially near the thumb of the 'glove' of Michigan above.
55,000 feet is uncommon, especially for areas like Michigan.

May 31- VIL returns in Grand Rapids, MI indicative of hail

VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid) values are very high up with the storms occurring in Grand Rapids, Michigan. VIL is a way to determine hail. The higher the VIL value, the more likelihood of hail and larger the hail size.
As we can see, a storm on the Grand Rapids radar is past 65 units. This means that hail is likely occurring in that area.

Notice of Changes May 31, 2011

As of now, The Weather Centre has deemed it appropriate to delete the following post series:

-Place to Be
-Daily Severe Weather Discussions

However, The Weather Centre has deleted these post series and made the series into pages. These pages are accessible by clicking on the tabs located below the title and description of this blog.

The Daily Severe Weather Discussions can now be found under the Severe Weather Center page.
The Place to Be can be found under the Place to Be page.

This move was made to save posting space and provide more detailed information in more space.

May 31: Tornado Warning- Sanford, MI


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 
FOR SOUTHERN MIDLAND COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 634 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHEPHERD
...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OIL CITY AROUND 645 PM EDT.
  SANFORD AND AVERILL AROUND 655 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS 
SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  SANFORD...            PLEASANT VALLEY...    OIL CITY...
  MIDLAND...

May 31- Storm Aftermath (Explanation of why nothing happened)

The storms that were supposed to carry an extreme damaging wind threat did not form.
The cold front is currently in West Indiana as I post.
Why did nothing happen?

For the Great Lakes areas such as Chicago, it was all cloud cover.
Clouds out ahead of the system brought the storm threat to minimal. Not nearly enough instability was generated to support even strong storms.

For other areas, it was the same thing.
Even right now, a massive wall of clouds is way out ahead of the cold front, also cutting out on instability. However, in those areas, daytime sunshine has already made the atmosphere unstable, so stronger storms are more likely for those areas in the Ohio Valley.

May 31, 2011 Severe Weather Forecast

There is a moderate risk of severe weather in the 'glove' of Michigan.

DISCUSSION
An upper low and shortwave trough will eject into the area forecast for severe weather today. Deep level flow fields appear to be favorable for organized severe storms with damaging winds and hail.
It appears to be that storms will increase in coverage as the cold front ejects into western upper Michigan and Central Wisconsin, with an increase in intensity as the storms move through North IL, IN, and east across lower MI.
The storm modes appear to be bowing segments and supercells early on, which will transition into a more widespread severe wind threat. It was, in the end, the wind threat that initiated the moderate risk area.
As the storms turn linear, along with other factors, the tornado threat is not favorable for tornadoes.

Today's hail outlook

Today's wind outlook

Today's tornado outlook