West-Based El Nino Becoming More Possible

The prospect of a West Based El Nino is becoming more possible, which would enhance good snowfall chances in the east US this winter. Take a look at the latest CFS v2 forecasts for Nino regions 1+2.

As shown above, the warmest anomalies have been centered in the eastern portion of the ENSO monitoring area. However, as seen in the forecast, there is more of a potential for the temperatures to lower, which either means the Nino is dying off or is transferring to the west. I believe the latter is more likely after seeing the Nino 3.4 region forecast below off the CFS v2.

As the Nino 1+2 regions cool off, the Nino 3.4 region would seem to warm up as we head into winter. What these two charts indicate is a movement of the El Nino-status warm waters westward (apologies for the alliteration) into the western portions of the ENSO monitoring area as we head into fall and eventually winter. Time will tell, but this is what could be panning out going into the late months of 2012.

Andrew

Long Range Indication of Hot High Pressure System Settling In

The NCEP Ensembles are returning the monster high pressure system to the eastern US after a disturbance will sit in place over the next week or two.

The ensembles are projecting a low pressure system to dip south and sit there for a few days, before the high pressure system once again shifts east and reclaims the eastern US, bringing with it hot temperatures. If this were to happen, we could be looking at an extended period of unusually hot temperatures, possibly continuing into the rest of July.
Now, these ensembles are long range, and there is a lot of potential wiggle room involved here. However, this is what I find to be historic/unusual. Historic and/or unusual events are typically placed fairly few and far between. These events take special forces to somehow expel it from the region. This is a historic/unusual event, in the case that it has broken numerous daily high temperature records and is able to hold its ground. That said, I find the NCEP ensemble's case very believable. It will certainly have to be monitored.

Andrew

Child Abduction Emergency- San Antonio, Texas and Surrounding Areas

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE TEXAS
DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THIS IS A CHILD ABDUCTION ALERT ISSUED BY THE TEXAS AMBER ALERT
NETWORK.

THE SAN ANTONIO POLICE DEPARTMENT IS SEARCHING FOR GABRIEL RIVERA,
HISPANIC...MALE...3 YEARS OLD...DOB 12/13/08...3 FOOT ZERO
INCHES...34 LBS...BROWN HAIR...BROWN EYES.

POLICE ARE LOOKING FOR ROBERT MEDRANO JR. AND MONICA SOTO IN HIS
ABDUCTION.

THE SUSPECTS ARE DRIVING A GOLD...2000...FORD...EXPLORER WITH A
TEXAS LICENSE PLATE NUMBER OF 57R8454. THE SUSPECT WAS LAST HEARD
FROM IN SAN ANTONIO...TX.

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS BELIEVE THIS CHILD TO BE IN GRAVE OR
IMMEDIATE DANGER.

IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION REGARDING THIS ABDUCTION, CALL THE
SAN ANTONIO POLICE DEPARTMENT AT 210-207-7660.

NEWS MEDIA POINT OF CONTACT IS SAN ANTONIO POLICE DEPARTMENT AT
210-207-7579. END OF MESSAGE.