June 7- Evening Update- Tropical Depression ONE (East Pacific Ocean)

Tropical Depression ONE-E (The E stands for East Pacific)
Current Infrared imagery indicates the depression is becoming well organized, with intense thunderstorms occurring on the western edge of the center of circulation and the previously exposed east flank of this depression recovering.
Now is the crucial time for tracks and intensity forecasts to be monitored. We are already on the job.

There remains a good consensus of having this depression move out to sea, with only a few stray models reaching out towards more of a landfall storm in Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center's forecast also takes this depression out to sea, but keeps it at a fairly interesting angle parallel to land.
The NHC's strength forecast looks to strengthen this storm into a tropical storm this morning at 2 am EDT, with this storm reaching hurricane status potentially by 11 am EDT Thursday. The storm will remain somewhat stationary until the 11 am Wednesday time frame, when the system begins to pick up steam.

Intensity forecasts are in a good agreement at this point. All models except one take the storm into Category 1 Hurricane Status.
Notice the sudden drop in strength around hour 132 by the 2 turquoise models and one orange model. That is a signature sign of potential landfall by this storm. This could be devastating, as it would already be in Category 1 to potentially Category 2 hurricane strength.

This is the first of many discussions and updates to be issued concerning this tropical system. Remember to check back continuously for more updates and posts. Stay safe.

Notice about Tropical Depression ONE-E

Tropical Depression ONE-E will have its own discussion.
You will find it this evening under the 'Tropical depression ONE-E has formed' section above the first post of this page.

Also, tropical discussions will no longer be posted on the sidebar unless there is potential for tropical cyclone formation. However, you can search the date for the latest post (example: search 'Month Day- Tropical Cyclone Discussion- Name of Ocean)

June 7- Excessive Heat Warning- Philadelphia, PA

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY
TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN
  DELAWARE AND WEST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY INCLUDING TRENTON...
  PHILADELPHIA...CAMDEN AND WILMINGTON.

* HAZARDS...EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE...WITH THE MOST DANGEROUS
  CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A VERY HOT
  AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SWELL INTO THE MID
  AND UPPER 90S AND CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN
  HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...AROUND 100.

* IMPACTS...THE ELDERLY...THE INFIRM...CHILDREN AND PETS ARE AT
  GREATEST RISK...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS NO AIR CONDITIONING.
  THIS AFFECTS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
  AFTERNOON HOURS. SLEEPING CAN BE DISRUPTED WHERE AIR
  CONDITIONING IS NOT AVAILABLE.

June 7: Excessive Heat Warning- Minneapolis, MN

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS 

IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS

IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...HIGHS TODAY 

WILL REACH 95 TO 100 DEGREES. HEAT
  INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB 

TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...THESE HOT AND 

HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
  HEIGHTENED RISK OF HEAT 

RELATED STRESS AND ILLNESSES. THIS WILL
  BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE URBANIZED 

AREAS OF THE TWIN CITIES
  METRO.

June 7- Place to Be

Today's Place to Be is Whiteville, NC

Whiteville
HIGH- 91
Weather- Mostly Sunny
Wind- Calm

June 7- Special Tropical Cyclone Update- East Pacific

This is a special update from The Weather Centre concerning a tropical system in the East Pacific.
Tropical Depression ONE-E has formed in the East Pacific Ocean.
Above is current infrared imagery. We see a defined center of circulation associated with strong thunderstorms. While the east flank of this center is exposed, it is expected to recover today into tonight.

Due to this tropical cyclone forming, the NHC has issued its first official track. We see a tropical depression until about 5 am Wednesday, when the system strengthens into a tropical storm and eventually into a hurricane.

We will issue more updates as needed and make a separate discussion of this system for the evening discussions.

Thank you

I would like to take some time today to just thank everyone who has looked at this blog, enjoyed it or even bookmarked it.
Last night, I posted a tornado warning for Billings, Montana. Since Billings is a big city, it pained me to have to issue a tornado warning.
However, I issued it as a duty.
It has since netted 160 views on its own, a remarkable number for a single post.
But I don't post these warnings or discussions for views.
I post them to keep people informed, keep people safe and to make sure they know what could and will happen on any day.
While some may criticize me for simply reposting these warnings from the NWS, I do not mind of them.
I encourage those to think what they like.
However, the only reason I issue those warnings is to keep people safe.
And judging by how many people look at those warnings, I believe I have accomplished that.
So thank you for relying on The Weather Centre for your everyday weather needs.

Statistics-
* Only 14 months into this blog's operation, The Weather Centre has gotten over 114,000 views worldwide.
*In one month alone, we topped 36,000 views- that's over a thousand views every day.
*One tornado warning from the deadly April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak got 2,000 views alone.

June 7- Morning Tropical Cyclone Discussion- East Pacific Ocean

There is a near 100% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours for a system to the west of Central America.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased over the last several hours with this system. Should current trends continue, a tropical depression could form later today.

At this stage it is important to know where the storm may go. There remains a very good consensus for the storm to go out to sea. However, a small group of models has banded together to keep the models close to land. I really don't have a preference at this time, but would like to believe that this system should go out to sea.

Intensity forecasts have dramatically changed over the last few model runs. The 3 blue lines (models) no longer suddenly dive down in strength 3 days out but keep the storm at Category 1 strength. This means that those models no longer anticipate the storm making landfall, which is good news.

The other models keep the storm at high tropical storm strength or low Category 1 hurricane strength.

Finally, we introduce a new image displaying the current probability of tropical cyclone formation.
I'm really not sure if the scale means 2=20% or whatever 12 means, so I will just say if the probability is high or low based on the color on the scale and how high it is.
The storm's probability for development is about 2-3, so it's a pretty fair bet to say that a tropical cyclone will form soon.

I do expect this storm to become a tropical cyclone soon, and we will have a special update when that happens.

June 7- Morning Tropical Cyclone Discussion- Atlantic Ocean

There is a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation for a system to the east of the Central America region.
Upper level winds are now becoming less favorable for development for this system, and already, the showers and storms associated with this system almost look to have abandoned the center of the system.

The track of this system has reached a good consensus of two solutions. One solution is for the system to be thrown out to sea. The other is for landfall around Louisiana.
To those concerned about landfall in Louisiana, this system will not be getting any stronger in it's lifetime.

A couple of models have altogether dropped out of the intensity forecasts, and the models that stayed keep the image of a non tropical storm low pressure system. The one model that does make a tropical storm is wrong.

I expect this system to dissipate, and this will be the final discussion issued for this system. However, daily discussions will still be issued.