Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Note

Just something I posted on my Facebook page for y'all to think over...

For those thinking my latest winter update was just for kicks, go ahead and think that. But here's the plain fact- a pattern change of sorts has already happened, shown by the falling GLAAM/NAO/AO, rising PNA, weak polar vortex and unstable potential vorticity, sudden stratospheric warmings, and more cold and snow than December. The question is if this pattern change will continue to come together, which is still in debate.

The reason I have not told you is because the details on if the pattern had changed were still being worked out. 

Why the Models are So Bad-- And What the Rest of Winter Holds in Store

For all the avid meteorologists out there, we all know the models have been horrible this winter. The thing we don't know is why. I believe I have an answer for you.
A common piece of knowledge is that change takes time to process. The same goes for computer models. What they may be indicating is an upcoming pattern change, and are thus having a difficult time forecasting. Or it could just be a bad model winter. But i'm having a gut feeling that the latter option is more unlikely.

So what does the rest of winter hold in store? Well, let's take a look overseas first.
First 8 days of GFS Forecast temperature anomaly

Last 8 days of GFS Forecast temperature anomaly

What I have found over the years is that weather in Europe is similarly reciprocated in the US a short time after. Looking at the 16 day forecast temperature anomalies produced by the GFS, the model is forecasting Europe to go into a freeze of sorts, with widespread anomalies of -5 degrees or more.
So what does temperatures in Europe have to do with our weather? As explained above, Europe weather can be reciprocated into our weather. If that holds true, I believe our pattern change is a short time away, which would also spell the model's inconsistency problems out.

CMC AO Forecast
I am using the CMC as a forecast because, as you see, it has much less flawed runs against verification than other models do. That is, there are less gray lines (past forecasts) leading far away from the verification, thus increasing my confidence in the forecast. Recently, the Arctic Oscillation has been negative- a sign of the changing atmosphere. The stratosphere and associated polar vortex have taken big hits recently and are staggering around, barely able to be held up on their own. If we can get one more good SSW (sudden stratospheric warming), I believe this cold will be forced to come south very quickly as the polar vortex breaks. The negative AO also supports cold air in the US, which could be the reciprocation of the cold Europe land mass.

CMC NAO Forecast
I am using the CMC for the same reasons i used the CMC for the AO, and those reasons are mentioned above. The CMC tells that the NAO is negative and should continue to be that way for a while. I find that the NAO and AO are very closely related, and thus it is possible for both to go negative simultaneously. That appears to have happened in this scenario. These AO and NAO are only short range forecasts, and while they appear to not contribute to the rest of winter forecast, they do. We have seen less strong positive days and more negative days of the AO and NAO this month than last- a sign that the pattern regime holding in the warmth and holding out the cold is weakening.

My thoughts
I'm still thinking a change to more snow and cold is in the cards. I find it way too early to throw in the towel on this winter, especially with these latest AO, NAO, Temp. Anomaly forecasts and data presented here today. I think it is still possible a good Nor'easter will come around. When it does, it could be "major". As for the storm track, the jet stream should shift at least slightly south, bringing Chicago, Des Moines, Detroit into possible target zones for snowstorms.

If you have any questions please ask below.

Tornado Warning- Alexandria, Louisiana


876 
WFUS54 KHGX 251243
TORHGX
TXC051-477-251315-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0009.120125T1243Z-120125T1315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
  NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 AM CST

* AT 637 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO   
  WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF LAKE SOMERVILLE DAM... MOVING   
  NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THERE IS A SECOND POSSIBLE TORNADO LOCATED 5 MILES 
  SOUTHWEST OF CALDWELL.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  SOMERVILLE AND CALDWELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR
HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CST FOR THE WARNED AREA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3066 9665 3034 9630 3014 9673 3019 9676
      3020 9675 3024 9675 3025 9673 3026 9669
      3029 9666 3031 9669 3031 9674 3039 9680
TIME...MOT...LOC 1241Z 229DEG 45KT 3030 9669

$$

New Watches to be Issued Soon

Louisiana and Texas will be involved in the watches.

Winter Update This Afternoon

An update on the rest of winter will be released at 4:00 PM CST

Tornado Indicated On Ground

825
WWUS54 KHGX 251418
SVSHGX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
818 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

TXC185-225-313-339-471-251445-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-120125T1445Z/
GRIMES TX-HOUSTON TX-MADISON TX-MONTGOMERY TX-WALKER TX-
818 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CST FOR WALKER...
MONTGOMERY...MADISON...HOUSTON AND GRIMES COUNTIES...

AT 812 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RICHARDS...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUNTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH. A SECOND RADAR INDICATED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATHS OF THESE TORNADOES INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO CRABBS PRAIRIE...HUNTSVILLE STATE PARK AND HUNTSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR
HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CST.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3121 9565 3094 9551 3062 9541 3052 9585
3088 9587 3106 9593 3111 9584 3110 9578
3114 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 1415Z 247DEG 31KT 3064 9576

$$


--

NWS Warnings Provided by AllisonHouse.com

Tornado Likely on Ground

254
WFUS54 KHGX 251323
TORHGX
TXC185-473-477-251400-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0011.120125T1323Z-120125T1400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
723 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 AM CST

* AT 719 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WASHINGTON... MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PLANTERSVILLE AND NAVASOTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR
HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CST FOR THE WARNED AREA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3038 9618 3037 9615 3036 9615 3038 9614
3038 9612 3040 9611 3050 9589 3037 9582
3024 9584 3019 9628 3031 9633
TIME...MOT...LOC 1322Z 252DEG 35KT 3028 9625

$$


--

NWS Warnings Provided by AllisonHouse.com

Tornado Warning (Developing Tornado)- Caldwell, Texas


170 
WFUS54 KFWD 251206
TORFWD
TXC145-395-251230-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0001.120125T1206Z-120125T1230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
606 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN FALLS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
  WEST CENTRAL ROBERTSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 AM CST

* AT 606 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  DEVELOPING TORNADO 16 MILES SOUTH OF MARLIN...MOVING NORTH AT 35
  MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  MARLIN AROUND 630 AM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM...CLOSET...OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR A
MATTRESS FOR PROTECTION.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 9678 3105 9676 3106 9682 3108 9681
      3111 9683 3108 9691 3136 9698 3139 9671
      3102 9669 3101 9677
TIME...MOT...LOC 1206Z 175DEG 31KT 3110 9680

$$