Sunday, December 18, 2011
December 20 Blizzard Event Update (Posted 12/18)
Confidence Level: High
The HPC is keeping tabs on the December 20th blizzard event closely, as are we, and we have many images to share. The image we have above is the HPC's forecast track for this storm. The storm is expected to eject from the Southwest From that point, the storm is expected to move in a northeast direction. Then the forecasting gets tricky. We see the HPC going into a sharp north-northeast direction, before going almost entirely north by the time of 6 AM Wednesday. I cannot say I am surprised. Throughout the day, the models and ensembles have been projecting this system farther north, likely due to the sampling of the storm now that it is on US soil. Because it is all happening today, I am hesitant to believe it, but now that the storm has been fully sampled, my confidence level has indeed risen. It is likely that the ridge we have been discussing in the Southeast is partially to blame for this more northward trend, as a stronger ridge would indeed force the storm farther north.Here we have another view of the storm, this time with ensemble member's participation. By matching each dot with the time key on the lower lefthand corner, we can see where the storm is projected to be at what times. The ensembles are very split on this supposed northward movement into Lake Michigan, and that is seen as the blue dots are very spread out, indicating a lack of confidence. These members are likely taking into account the ridge in the southeast as well, bring into question just how strong this ridge will be, and exactly where it ends up.
24 Hour Forecast Snow Accumulation |
24-48 Hour Forecast Snow Accumulation |
The above images are impact based, showing an estimate and probabilities for where the heaviest snow is forecasted to fall. We see that the next several hours hold a good potential for over 8 inches of snow in Northern New Mexico. The 24-48 hour timeframe has a slight probability for 12 inches of snow in Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle, and that is where the heaviest snowfall should occur for that time period. I do think that the heavy snow may have to be adjusted a bit south, but again, this is depending on the ridge's strength.
With all this talk of a northward shift, a question I know many of you are asking is if these northern areas will get hit with snow now. The answer is possibly.
Read the caption for this image. |
If you have any questions, you can comment them below.
December 20 Blizzard Event (Texas, Oklahoma Affected)
Light green is a Blizzard Watch Blue is Winter Storm Watch |
Here's a couple images from the NWS Offices
Amarillo, Texas NWS Office |
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