Friday, May 31, 2013

Tornado Emergency - Moore, Oklahoma - May 31, 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES...

AT 705 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED STRONG TORNADO ONE MILE SOUTH
OF THE FAIRGROUNDS. THIS TORNADO WAS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

..THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR DOWNTOWN OKLAHOMA CITY...INCLUDING
THE FAIRGROUNDS...WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT...THE CAPITOL...VALLEY BROOK
...NORTH MOORE...AND DEL CITY...

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKLAHOMA CITY...MOORE...DEL CITY...BETHANY...WARR ACRES...NICHOLS
HILLS...FOREST PARK...VALLEY BROOK AND LAKE ALUMA.

Tornado Headed for Downtown Oklahoma City

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES...

AT 705 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED STRONG TORNADO ONE MILE SOUTH
OF THE FAIRGROUNDS. THIS TORNADO WAS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

..THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR DOWNTOWN OKLAHOMA CITY...INCLUDING
THE FAIRGROUNDS...WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT...THE CAPITOL...VALLEY BROOK
...NORTH MOORE...AND DEL CITY...

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKLAHOMA CITY...MOORE...DEL CITY...BETHANY...WARR ACRES...NICHOLS
HILLS...FOREST PARK...VALLEY BROOK AND LAKE ALUMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.

DO NOT STOP UNDER BRIDGES OR HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. THEY WILL NOT
PROTECT YOU FROM A TORNADO.

THE TORNADO MAY BE HIDDEN BY RAIN AND VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE. DO NOT
WAIT. TAKE COVER NOW.

Tornado Emergency - Oklahoma City Metro - May 31, 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
  NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
  EASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT
    
* AT 651 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING STRONG
  DAMAGING TORNADOES WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BETHANY. A TORNADO 
  MAY DEVELOP AGAIN AT ANY TIME. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR WILEY POST AIRPORT...WILL ROGERS WORLD
AIRPORT...BETHANY...DOWNTOWN OKLAHOMA CITY...AND NORTH MOORE...TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS NOW.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...DANGEROUS AND EXTREMELY LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OKLAHOMA CITY...MOORE...DEL CITY...YUKON...BETHANY...MUSTANG...WARR
  ACRES...NICHOLS HILLS...FOREST PARK...VALLEY BROOK AND LAKE ALUMA.

Tornado Emergency- Oklahoma City, OK - May 31, 2013


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
  SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT
   
* AT 623 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
  SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 6
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF EL RENO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO
  MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR YUKON...RICHLAND...WILEY POST
AIRPORT...BETHANY...AND THE VILLAGE...TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO
PRECAUTIONS NOW.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...DANGEROUS AND EXTREMELY LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EL RENO...YUKON...BETHANY...MUSTANG...WARR ACRES AND RICHLAND.

Tornado on Ground - West of Oklahoma City - May 31, 2013


SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKC017-051-010000-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0058.000000T0000Z-130601T0000Z/
GRADY OK-CANADIAN OK-
617 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN GRADY AND CENTRAL CANADIAN COUNTIES...
   
AT 614 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF UNION CITY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL RENO...YUKON...MUSTANG AND UNION CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU
CANNOT GET UNDERGROUND GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A
STURDY BUILDING NOW.


Radar images of a tornado on the ground west of Oklahoma City. OKC and Moore are threatened.

Potentially Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch - May 31, 2013

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 262
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   330 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

   * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 330 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
     NUMEROUS VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
     NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT
       GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
   BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 260...WW 261...

   DISCUSSION...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
   MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
   IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WEST-CENTRAL OK...AND ALONG A WEAK
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OK.  DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES
   ARE POSSIBLE.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT
   THROUGH THE EVENING.

   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.

East Coast, Gulf Coast Now At Risk for Tropical Cyclone

It now appears that the Gulf Coast AND East Coast are at risk of being threatened by a tropical cyclone, as model guidance has come into agreement still a while out.

The ECMWF model has been rather consistent with its idea of holding high pressure over the Atlantic to provide a favorable environment for tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Over the last few runs, this model has developed a tropical cyclone and had it landfall on the Gulf Coast. Its most recent forecast has a tropical cyclone shooting into Florida on June 7th, as the image above indicates. Considering the consistency of this forecast and agreement with other modeling systems I would not be surprised to see any of the Gulf Coast states affected. As of right now, states from Louisiana to Florida are at the higher risk of a landfalling tropical cyclone.

Moving ahead into June 9th, we find that the tropical cyclone has moved through Florida and is harassing the coastline north of Florida. Moving forward into this model run the ECMWF continues to push the tropical cyclone closer to shore in response to stagnant high pressure to the southeast of the Canadian Maritimes. This is actually a pretty plausible solution- if a tropical cyclone does form and is able to make landfall in Florida, the synoptic pattern would favor the tropical system being pushed more towards land- exactly how close to the Eastern Seaboard is the main question here.

Multiple GFS Ensemble members agree with the idea of tropical cyclone formation and landfall on the Gulf Coast. From there, these same members tend to agree with the cyclone affecting the East Coast after pushing through Florida. When a model solution gets the backing of ensembles, the solution tends to be a rather plausible one. We're still a long ways out, but I feel that this situation needs to be monitored closely in coming days.

Andrew

Violent Tornadoes Possible Tonight for Oklahoma

NOTE: High Risk was not issued, but may be issued later on.
Violent tornadoes are possible this evening for Oklahoma, as the worst day of this multi-day severe weather outbreak may be about to unfold across the state.

Latest mesoscale discussion from the Storm Prediction Center over the central Oklahoma region indicated a Potentially Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watch will be issued in the next couple of hours in response to a very favorable environment for tornadoes in the area. At the present time, the region is also being monitored for an upgrade by the SPC from a Moderate Risk of severe weather to the rare High Risk of severe weather. High Risk situations are issued when severe weather is at its worst; some events associated with High Risk situations include the Tuscaloosa event in April 2011.

Violent tornadoes are on the menu for that region this evening; depending on how the PDS Tornado Watch is issued, we may see the chance for multiple strong tornadoes or the chance for one or two. Regardless, it is important that anyone in Oklahoma understand that there is a very real risk for life-threatening tornadoes. The synoptic environment is supportive for tornadoes that MAY (no guarantees whatsoever here) be similar to the Moore, OK tornado. This similarity is not in damage or path, but in how the environment may be favoring tornadoes on the higher end of the tornado scale.

A Critical Storm Action Day (CDAS) is now in effect.

Andrew