East Coast Hurricane Katia Threat Being Realized

The threat of something happening on the East Coast is being realized by the models and us forecasters as we watch Katia trudge her way WNW. The reason is say the threat of 'something' happening is because I don't want to make predictions of a landfall.
Here's the NHC forecast as of this evening.

What I find interesting is that the NHC is curving more WNW after going NW with Katia. That could, emphasize 'could', play an important role in how the East Coast will be affected by Katia. I guess that the main thing is: If Katia reaches 70W-75W without going above 30N, the chances of an East Coast landfall probably increase. By how much is yet to be seen, but that is what we have right now.

Use the coordinates of 70W-75W and below 30W to see for yourself if the chances of an East Coast landfall supposedly increase. Below, you will find a description of the past couple frames in this model run of these 4 models.

GFS- NW track and also farthest north of the 4 models.
HWRF- Slightly more NW track in last couple frames of this model. Speed is also erratic.
CMC (GEM)- Really hugs the islands on this run. An East Coast landfall could be in the cards if the CMC solution verified.
GFDL- A tad south of the GFS, but close enough to the US that the East Coast could be hit as described in the GEM solution.

Tropical Storm Lee bashing New Orleans: Forecasts (Post 2 of 2)

Click here for post 1 of 2- observations of TS Lee.

Tropical Storm Lee bashing New Orleans- Observations (Post 1 of 2)

TS Lee continues to bash New Orleans tonight, as a cluster of heavy rain moves over the region. We have a suite of observational products for you, not any forecasts- that will be in the following post.

This is a partial view of Lee's wind. Keep in mind that winds are stronger in the center than what is shown. Anyhow, winds on the western side of Lee aren't incredibly significant, with maximum speeds about 25-35 knots close to the center, but widespread 10-20 knot winds way out west. On the southern region, there is a large region of 35 knots with dots of 40 knot winds. The east region of Lee wasn't scanned well by this observation unit, but it looks like there are significant winds on the east flank as well.

We are seeing a large blob of what appears to be intense convection moving over south Louisiana. At this rate, New Orleans could be dealing with a catastrophic flooding event. This will certainly be something to closely watch.

Finally, water vapor imagery is showing that convection intercepting Louisiana as a huge mass of water vapor, indicating potentially torrential rainfall. Combined with winds climbing above 20 mph (sustained winds), visibility will be extremely limited, so only travel if it is essential.

Click here for post 2 out of 2: The Forecast

Tropical Storm Lee: 7:00 PM Update

Pre-Reading notes: This is an automatic post, meaning the publisher made this post and scheduled it to be published at a designated time. Images are not considered real time but are near-real time.

Lee's main convection remains to the right side of the center of circulation while shear does battle with the western portion of the storm. New Orleans and the southern Louisiana region continue to encounter rain as the storm bands come onshore. Waterspouts are a concern, and some could be strong enough to go onshore and remain somewhat intact.

Here's a microwave imagery of Lee, showing the main convection in a more detailed sense. There is some convection on the western flank of the storm, mainly to the south of the center of circulation, but the eastern side is definitely the powerhouse of Lee. I am concerned with New Orleans overnight possibly into this morning as the bright red bands on the far right flank of Lee could move onshore.

Finally, here's a rainfall imagery of Lee. There is definitely heavy rain in the 'eyewall', if you will. Lee will only strengthen, and as he does, the rainfall rates will only increase. When Lee moves onshore, supposedly around the New Orleans region, that will be the big blow to the sewer systems, levees, roads, and basement sump pumps. I would definitely advise people in the New Orleans region to get back-up sump pumps, and even back-up back-up sump pumps.

Lee dealing with shear, New Orleans getting a nonstop, wet taste of Lee

Here is a visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Lee churning in the Gulf. Lee is currently a fairly weak tropical storm, with winds of 40 MPH. Most of Lee's convection is stationed on the eastern side of this storm, due to shearing on the western portion of the storm. This shows what could be Lee's center of circulation exposed, but that remains to be seen.

Here's another view of Lee, showing the coldest cloud tops, indicating where the strongest convection is. As these bands of storm rotate around the center of circulation, keep in mind that these rain bands are already affecting New Orleans. And while Lee will probably stay in the Gulf for another 24 hours at least, new Orleans could be in for quite a flooding situation. Below is the storm total rainfall accumulation, and below that is the HPC's 5 day rainfall forecast.

Katia a toss-up; Lee forms in Gulf

This is probably the shortest discussion I will issue for weeks to come. I'm exhausted.
Anyway, here's Katia's computer models and NHC track,

As well as Lee's track and rainfall forecast.

September 2: Civil Emergency Message (Homicide Suspect Seen)- Stark County, North Dakota

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1133 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2011 /1033 PM MDT THU SEP 1 2011/

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
STARK COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT.

A SUSPECT IN THE RECENT HOMICIDE IN BELFIELD WAS SEEN THURSDAY
EVENING NEAR THE EAST RIVER ROAD AREA ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF
MEDORA IN BILLINGS COUNTY. THE SUSPECT WAS LAST SEEN WEARING
SHORTS...WAS MUDDY WITH A CAMOUFLAGE JACKET. THE SUSPECT WAS ON
FOOT AND MAY BE LOOKING FOR A VEHICLE WITH KEYS OR AN ATV OR 4
WHEELER.

IF YOU SEE THIS SUSPECT DO NOT APPROACH. CALL 911.

Breaking: 7.1 Earthquake in Alaska

A 7.1 earthquake has struck Alaska. It was centered 6 miles below ground.  There is no widespread tsunami risk at this time.