June 6: Tornado Warning (Tornado Sighted)- Billings, MT

...A TORNADO WARNING 
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 
930 PM MDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL YELLOWSTONE AND 
SOUTH CENTRAL MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES...

AT 854 PM MDT...TRAINED 
WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
BROADVIEW. THIS TORNADO 
WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
MUSSELSHELL COUNTY...OR 
18 MILES SOUTH OF ROUNDUP...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL SOUTHERN MUSSELSHELL COUNTY AT 910 PM MDT
  RURAL NORTHERN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY AT 910 PM MDT

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN 

EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL STILLWATER AND WEST CENTRAL

YELLOWSTONE COUNTIES...

AT 831 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS 

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LAUREL...OR 16 MILES EAST

OF COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  LAUREL BY 845 PM MDT...

Extreme Heat expected June 7-8 2011

Extreme heat is expected across much of the United States as the jet stream shoots north nearly into Canada.

Under NO circumstances at ANY time should children or pets be left in cars for ANY period of time.
This is a much more serious situation than you think.

June 6- Evening Tropical Cyclone Discussion- East Pacific Ocean

This system is and was the star of our two special tropical cyclone updates today. There is a near 100% chance of development over the next 48 hours with a system to the west of Central America.
Showers and thunderstorm activity has changed little in recent hours. It will only take a slight increase in organization for a tropical depression or storm to form out of this.

It does appear we will be dealing with a tropical cyclone system, so our first priority is knowing where this system will go. There is a very good solution in the works at this time, with many of the models taking this storm out to sea in more of a drifting motion.
There has been a model or two pointing towards a landfall of this storm, and it is evident that a couple models have joined this solution. However, it is not enough for me to agree with that solution at this time.

Intensity forecasts are our next item, and they are definitely eye candy in the tropical cyclone world. All models take this system into at least a tropical storm stage. However, Category 1 hurricane status has been rapidly diminishing in the way of prospects in the last day.
We see some models diving down about 3-4 days away. What that could mean is a landfall of this system. Those 3 or 4 models suddenly diving down about 96 hours out are spelling a situation that would likely indicate a landfall of this system.

We had been focusing on infrared imagery last time we posted, especially a hook in the west flank of this storm system. However, we can see it dissipated.
But more importantly is how tight these clouds are getting. Despite my earlier prediction being wrong, I do believe that a defined center of circulation is being formed in this system, spelling out a tropical depression or storm. I do believe a tropical storm/depression is currently forming or may form soon.

This storm system will be keeping our system busy for the next few days, and we will post updates as needed.

June 6- Evening Tropical Cyclone Discussion- Atlantic Ocean

There is a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 2 days for a system off the east coast of Central America.
A large low pressure system has changed little over the last several hours. The window is closing for development of this system as upper level winds will become unfavorable for development tomorrow.

Regardless of development, we have to know where this system will know. In pretty much the same solution as this morning, there is still a very large spread, with this ensemble suite taking the low anywhere from Louisiana to out in the Atlantic Ocean.
There is a slight consensus in some areas, such as taking the low out to sea and taking it to the west of Florida. That's about the best we can scrape out of the barrel in the ways of possible storm tracks.

The ensembles are done with this system and no longer project it to reach tropical cyclone status (then again, not many did in the first place.) There is a nice consensus for 2 days out, in which the system does not make it through the window of opportunity and dissipates shortly thereafter. Some models carry on that storm through the 5 days with little change in strength, maybe a slight downward turn in strength.

Infrared returns from this storm aren't too impressive, with very little organization and no defined circulation. There is only one band of somewhat intense thunderstorms, and for a good organization, it would be ideal for more organization and thunderstorms on the west flank of this storm system.

This storm will probably miss the window of opportunity and carry on its business, probably out to sea away from land and dissipate from there.

June 6- Special Tropical Cyclone Update #2- East Pacific Ocean (6:16pm CDT)

This is a second tropical cyclone update that will not be replacing the evening tropical cyclone discussion.

After looking at current infrared imagery of the storm system in the East Pacific, it does look like intense thunderstorm clouds have formed a hook formation at the west end of the potential tropical cyclone.
The infrared imagery does indicate these storms are very intense and their clouds are very high.
That said, The Weather Centre has deemed it necessary to issue another tropical cyclone update.
At this time, I believe there is at least some reason to believe that a tropical depression is forming.
A tropical depression is characterized with a defined circulation and fairly high sustained winds. Unfortunately, we do not have data to represent the sustained wind speeds, but with infrared data suggesting closed circulation is forming, I will presume a tropical cyclone is now forming.
However, I will not be labeling posts with the tropical depression name until the NHC has officially noted that this is a tropical depression/storm.

Place to Be will resume tomorrow

The Place to Be will resume tomorrow in POST FORM instead of on a page.

June 6- Special Tropical Cyclone Update- East Pacific Ocean (4:07 PM CDT)

This is a special tropical cyclone update from The Weather Centre concerning a tropical system in the East Pacific Ocean.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system off the coast of Central America have continued to become organized, and it is now almost certain that this system will become a tropical storm, possibly into hurricane status.
This is only a special update, so we will not be posting any ensembles or tracks. This evening, we will post evening discussions as normal (apologies for no discussion yesterday), and we will post any special updates as needed.

June 6- Morning Tropical Cyclone Discussion- East Pacific Ocean

There is a 90% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours for a system located to the west of Central America.
Thunderstorm activity in this system continues to organize itself, and environmental conditions are favorable for more development into a tropical depression and possibly a tropical storm or hurricane.
Looking at the image we do see swirls of banded clouds showing intense thunderstorms. It does appear transformation into a tropical depression/storm is occurring at this time.

There is a very good consensus over what will happen with this system. Current thinking is to take the system out to sea while keeping it close to land at some points. One stray model takes the storm through Mexico, re-emerging into the Gulf of Mexico, but with no other models agreeing, I will also disagree with that solution.

Intensity forecasts are also on a fairly good consensus, with all models letting the storm become a tropical storms, and most models indicating a Category 1 hurricane. 3 models take the system to Category 2 status, and one model prefers a climax at Category 3 hurricane status, classified as a major hurricane.

This system is looking very favorable to develop into a tropical system over the next 2 days, possibly into a hurricane. Stay with The Weather Centre for more information.

June 6- Morning Tropical Cyclone Discussion- Atlantic Ocean

There is a 40% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours for a system to the east of Central America.
A large and disorganized area of thunderstorms has been separated into two sections: lowest pressure and most intense thunderstorms. There is a chance for development before upper level winds turn unfavorable.

Regardless of if this storm develops, there is now a real threat of this system hitting land, with nearly all models pointing towards a direct hit on the United States. However, there is a very wide spread in where this hit could occur, and we will not focus in on where the center of that spread is.

Intensity forecasts aren't impressive with this system. While most models give this storm tropical storm status, there is a very wide spread before that happens, and all the models have different solutions. I have decided that a fairly good solution would be to leave this system just below tropical storm status.

This system has a chance at development, but that's about it. We will keep you up to date with the latest weather information on this system.