Evening everyone. I am finally back to my computer, and it looks like Irene is taking on a northeast movement. Visible satellite imagery is indicating that Irene is moving in that direction. Additionally, there may be pockets of dry air in the center of circulation (Irene does not have an eye at this time) that could be slowing Irene's strengthening down. We will keep you updated.
Friday, August 26, 2011
New York Region Evacuations (August 26)
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR CAPE MAY COUNTY, NEW JERSEY. MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR LONG BEACH ISLAND. MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC COUNTY, NEW JERSEY. VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERKELEY TOWNSHIP IN OCEAN COUNTY, NEW JERSEY. IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT RESIDENTS AND VISITORS FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS WHEN EVACUATIONS ARE ORDERED.
I'm watching Irene at this time, and it looks like she is moving directly north, indicating she could be making the GFS forecast track (inland just west of OBX). I do believe her eye is being hit by some obstacles, but based on historical information and current imagery, I am anticipating Irene to have a window of opportunity to strengthen a bit in the next 24 hours. As soon as it makes landfall in NC, Irene should begin a weakening phase, hitting New York at a strong Category 1 hurricane at best.
Hurricane Warning Issued for New York, NY in advance of Hurricane Irene
.STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2N...LONGITUDE 77.5W. THIS WAS ABOUT 590 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ...OR ABOUT 560 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DOVER DE. STORM MOTION WAS N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 100 MPH. .SITUATION OVERVIEW... DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH BRINGS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS SUNDAY. THE STORM WILL BRING DAMAGING WINDS, TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RESULTING IN DANGEROUS FLOODING OF CREEKS, STREAMS AND RIVERS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED IS 6 TO 12 INCHES. WHEN MAKING DECISIONS, DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS THIS HURRICANE IS A LARGE STORM. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION, THEREFORE EVERYONE IS URGED COMPLETE THEIR PREPARATIONS TODAY. MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR CAPE MAY COUNTY, NEW JERSEY. MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR LONG BEACH ISLAND. MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC COUNTY, NEW JERSEY. VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERKELEY TOWNSHIP IN OCEAN COUNTY, NEW JERSEY. IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT RESIDENTS AND VISITORS FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS WHEN EVACUATIONS ARE ORDERED. .PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING, NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS, OR IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING. PREPARE FOR POWER OUTAGES THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LAST LONG PERIODS OF TIME... AND MAKE SURE THAT YOUR VEHICLE HAS A FULL TANK OF FUEL. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS, DOCKS AND MARINAS, URGENTLY COMPLETE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT, MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH, CONTINUE WITH YOUR PREPARATIONS AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
Long Island, New York under Hurricane Watch for Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Watch
HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 245 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... .NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WIND AND RAINFALL INFORMATION. .AREAS AFFECTED... THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK... NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX... NORTHERN NEW LONDON...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN... SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW LONDON...EASTERN PASSAIC... HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...EASTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX... EASTERN ESSEX...WESTERN UNION...EASTERN UNION...PUTNAM... ROCKLAND...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...BRONX...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK... SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...NORTHERN QUEENS... NORTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS AND SOUTHERN NASSAU. FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTAL WATERS AND NEW YORK HARBOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... WESTERN PASSAIC...ORANGE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK... NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS. .STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2N...LONGITUDE 77.5W. THIS WAS ABOUT 690 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW YORK CITY NY...OR ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MONTAUK POINT NY. STORM MOTION WAS N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 100 MPH. .SITUATION OVERVIEW... HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE OUTER BANDS FROM IRENE LIKELY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE IN TORRENTIAL RAIN AND STRENGTHENING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...FLOODING RAINS...AND SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING. WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS THE IMPACTS OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE STORM. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE HURRICANE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING DAMAGE IF THE GREATEST SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES ON SUNDAY. THIS SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE THREATENING WAVES. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINS...IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR...MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY. SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE. AS A RESULT A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. .PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT... BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. && .NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON AROUND 630 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. CTZ005>012-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-078>081-176>179-271845- /O.CON.KOKX.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON- WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX- WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 245 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 ...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... STAY CALM AND KEEP INFORMED. COMPLY WITH ANY EVACUATION ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS...OR YOU LIVE IN A SURGE ZONE OR ANY LOCATION PRONE TO FLOODING...EVACUATE TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER OR RIDE OUT THE STORM IN THE STURDY HOME OF FAMILY OR FRIENDS OUTSIDE OF EVACUATION ZONES. ITEMS TO BRING TO A SHELTER INCLUDE A FIRST AID KIT...MEDICINES AND PRESCRIPTIONS...BABY FOOD AND DIAPERS...GAMES AND BOOKS... TOILETRIES...A BATTERY POWERED RADIO...A CELL PHONE...FLASHLIGHTS WITH EXTRA BATTERIES...A BLANKET OR SLEEPING BAG FOR EACH PERSON...PERSONAL IDENTIFICATION...COPIES OF KEY PAPERS SUCH AS INSURANCE POLICIES...AVAILABLE CASH AND CREDIT CARDS. REMEMBER... PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN MOST PUBLIC SHELTERS...SO CHECK AHEAD WITH YOUR INTENDED SHELTER. REGARDING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS...COVER ALL WINDOWS AND DOORS WITH SHUTTERS OR PLYWOOD. MOVE PATIO FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS INDOORS. BRACE ALL EXTERIOR DOORS...INCLUDING GARAGE DOORS. DO THIS AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A TRIP TO THE HARDWARE STORE...THE GROCERY STORE...OR THE GAS STATION...DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. && ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 8 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 65 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. ...WINDS... AS HURRICANE IRENE MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY HURRICANE IRENE. MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF IRENE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL FEET OF SURGE...PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...NEW YORK HARBOR...LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK CITY. THESE TIDAL CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE THREATENING WAVES. ...INLAND FLOODING... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING RAINS OCCUR. ...COASTAL HAZARDS... INCREASINGLY LARGE SWELLS ARRIVING FROM HURRICANE IRENE WILL CREATE HIGH SURF AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC FACING COASTLINE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS DUE TO THE BATTERING SURF. ...RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
Dry Air Band Wrapping into Irene, Should Prohibit Further Strengthening (August 26)
Irene Weakening- So is her Forecast (August 26)
Irene has weakened to a Category 2 hurricane as she struggles with her center of circulation. However, I still stand by my suggestions to evacuate along OBX ASAP, because the GFS shows Irene STRENGTHENING over North Carolina.
Here is Irene's current forecast from the NHC.
Here is Irene's current forecast from the NHC.
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