THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN BURLEIGH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... MORTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... EASTERN OLIVER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 1100 PM CDT/1000 PM MDT/ * AT 857 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF LARK...OR 38 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BISMARCK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... CROWN BUTTE LAKE AROUND 1030 PM CDT. MANDAN AROUND 1035 PM CDT. DOUBLE DITCH INDIAN VILLAGE AROUND 1045 PM CDT. BALDWIN AROUND 1055 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Sunday, July 31, 2011
July 31: Weather Emergency (Winds Over 90 MPH)- Bismarck, ND
July 31: Dust Storm Warning- Phoenix, AZ
...DUST STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS
EVENING...
THE DUST STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS
EVENING.
* AFFECTED AREA: MARICOPA COUNTY
* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: TEMPE...SCOTTSDALE...DOWNTOWN PHOENIX.
* TIMING: UNTIL 9 PM.
* WINDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH.
* VISIBILITY: LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE.
* IMPACTS: MOTORISTS WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST ALONG INTERSTATES 10 AND 17...LOOP
101...AND AZ 51.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A DUST STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN WINDS HAVE GENERATED LARGE
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OR BLOWING SAND THAT HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES...TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS...RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. BE READY FOR A SUDDEN
DROP IN VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO. USE EXTRA CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN
WHILE DRIVING...AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS WILL BE SEEN ONLY
AT CLOSE RANGE. IF YOU ENCOUNTER BLOWING DUST OR BLOWING SAND ON
THE ROADWAY OR SEE IT APPROACHING...PULL OFF THE ROAD AS FAR AS
POSSIBLE AND PUT YOUR VEHICLE IN PARK. TURN THE LIGHTS ALL THE
WAY OFF AND KEEP YOUR FOOT OFF THE BRAKE PEDAL.
July 31 Atlantic Evening Tropical Bulletin 9:30 PM
System is very unorganized, with a few clusters of strong convection. Strongest cluster is on the western portion of the system (big blob in the middle of the screen).
We do expect this system to potentially develop soon, but this organization is not favorable for a tropical depression to form ATTM.
Strong Storms in South Dakota/North Dakota
Notice
We were able to hook up to a network that enables us to post on the blog.
You will receive more detailed but still limited posts from us in the coming days.
You will receive more detailed but still limited posts from us in the coming days.
July 31 Atlantic Tropical 930 Am Bulletin
A system in the atlantic ocean remains at a very high potential for formation as of 930 am. We do not have good computer access, so we cannot upload images.
July 31: Tropical Depression FIVE (East Pacific Ocean) 8:00 AM Bulletin
This storm is more on the smaller side according to the infrared imagery, but it could be because I am not looking at what could be the 'arms' of the storm.
Tropical Depression FIVE will become a tropical storm and move parallel to land. It will stay far away from land. The storm will eventually strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane, but that appears the worst it will strengthen to.
Saturday, July 30, 2011
July 30 Pacific Tropical Bulletin
The Weather Centre has detected a tropical area in the Pacific Ocean that will not threaten land, but could turn into a Category 1 hurricane.
Intensity plots at the top indicate the storm will make it minimally to Category 1 strength. However, there are so few models that there can't really be a consensus yet.
Regardless of strength, this storm system will stay far away from land and move Northwest towards the Central Pacific region of responsibility.
July 30 Atlantic Evening Bulletin
A tropical system is currently located to the east of the Caribbean region. This system is projected to form into Tropical Storm Emily, and may strengthen from there.
Spaghetti models just above show the storm going towards the East Coast. Additionally, looking at the intensity plots at the top of the page, it looks like the maximum strength for Emily will be Tropical Storm status, as per the model consensus.
Vacation
We will be taking some time off in the next week.
Don't fret- we will update our facebook page daily
and post things on the blog likely daily as we may have a new tropical system in the works.
Don't fret- we will update our facebook page daily
and post things on the blog likely daily as we may have a new tropical system in the works.
July 30: Atlantic Tropical 2:00 PM Update
Should the storm develop, its name would be Emily. However, for now the system is just an invest, or a pre-tropical cyclone of sorts.
Friday, July 29, 2011
July 29: Don About to make Landfall
Don's rain bands are making their way ashore, as are the heaviest rains right now.
July 29: Tornado Warning- Middletown, NY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 530 PM EDT... * AT 453 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MIDDLETOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GOSHEN...MONTGOMERY AND NEW WINDSOR PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS. THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM FRIDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.
July 29 Tropical Noon Update
The system currently has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. However, that chance will likely increase as we move on into Saturday.
Regardless of if this system develops or not, it will likely move west northwestward towards the Caribbean islands, then possibly up the Gulf of Mexico.
We will have more information on this system later today, but we will have limited posting abilities starting Sunday and through the next week. While we monitor the system, you can track Tropical Storm Don as it aims for South Texas to make landfall later tonight. Just click the 'Track the Storm Here' button at the top of the page in the red box.
Tropical Storm Don: How will Don affect the Texas Drought?
The thing is, is that the Texas drought is hard as a rock right now. With torrential rainfall in South Texas, all of the water will just flow off the ground since the ground is so hard it cannot absorb the rain. What's needed is a light, continuous rain that will soak into the ground.
In summary, it won't affect the Texas drought majorly.
July 29 Morning Update: Don heads south
Since Don pushes the rainfall further south with every shift south and Don is small storm at that, rainfall amounts have significantly decreased in areas that used to be in the line of fire yesterday.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Tropical Storm Don: July 28 Evening Models Overview
You can see all information on Don by clicking below on the label Tropical Storm Don or clicking on the image at the top of the page called 'Track The Storm'.
Tropical Storm Don: Rainfall Forecast
You can see all other information on Don by checking out the label below called Tropical Storm Don, or click the image at the top of the page saying 'track the storm'.
July 28- Evening Severe Weather Briefing
We will keep watching the radars for further information.
July 28- Area where storms will develop
The map above is the MCS Maintenance, which is made up of over 340 MCS parameters.
The higher this parameter is indicates the more likelihood of the development and/or upkeep of a MCS (storm cluster).
2011-2012 Winter Forecast: Comparing Last Winter's Underwater Temps to Now
We did some research regarding 1 meter underwater temperatures in the ENSO regions, and decided to compare last winter's temperatures to this year's at current time of publishing.
We can see how cold the water was last year, when there was a strong La Nina in effect. This year, we can see how temperatures in the ENSO regions have decreased by 2 degrees Celsius in a span of 2 or 3 months. This rapid cooling is definitely an encouraging sign that a La Nina may be in the works for this winter.
July 28- Destabilizing atmosphere
MUCAPE indices are already past 5000 j/kg as we watch for severe storms tonight.
We expect these storms to congeal into a cluster, some cells with possibly strong structures.
July 28: Tropical Storm Warning- Corpus Christi, TX
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... .NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS. .AREAS AFFECTED... THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. .WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...MCMULLEN...LIVE OAK...BEE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA... DUVAL...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS... REFUGIO AND CALHOUN. FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED AREAS. ALL PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENTS. .STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1N...LONGITUDE 90.1W. THIS WAS ABOUT 500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARANSAS TX...OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT O`CONNOR TX. STORM MOTION WAS NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH. .SITUATION OVERVIEW... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY. .PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE PLAN SPECIFIC TO YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. && .NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.
July 28: Tropical Storm Warning- Quintana, TX
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... .NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. .AREAS AFFECTED... THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LAND LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE UPPER TEXAS BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS. .WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA AND BRAZORIA. FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED AREAS. ALL PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENTS. .STORM INFORMATION... AT 9 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1N...LONGITUDE 90.1W. THIS WAS ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MATAGORDA TX...OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT TX. STORM MOTION WAS NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH. .SITUATION OVERVIEW... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY. .PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH OR WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN SPECIFIC TO YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. FOR THOSE NEARBY...REVIEW YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN AND BECOME READY TO ACT IF A WATCH OR A WARNING IS LATER ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. && .NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA. TXZ235>237-291500- /O.UPG.KHGX.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KHGX.TR.W.1004.110728T1449Z-000000T0000Z/ JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA- 949 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
July 28: Tropical Storm Watch- Corpus Christi, TX
TROPICAL STORM DON LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 538 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 ...TROPICAL STORM DON CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO... .NEW INFORMATION... THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS TRACK HOLDS TRUE...THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF TROPICAL STORM DON. .AREAS AFFECTED... THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. .WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... MCMULLEN...LIVE OAK...BEE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...DUVAL...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN. FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. .STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0N...LONGITUDE 88.7W. THIS WAS ABOUT 620 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARANSAS TX...OR ABOUT 610 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT OCONNOR TX. STORM MOTION WAS WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH. .SITUATION OVERVIEW... AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AN INCREASING THREAT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THESE THREATS WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS NEAR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM`S TRACK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY SOMEWHERE WITHIN SOUTH TEXAS...LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MINOR FLOODING OF AREA BEACHES. .PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. && .NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI AROUND 11 AM CDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. TXZ242>247-291045- /O.CON.KCRP.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN- 538 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY TROPICAL STORM DON. MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. HOWEVER...BARRIER ISLAND BEACHES WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED WITH WATER REACHING INTO THE DUNES AND FLOODING ACCESS ROADS.
July 28- Morning Atlantic Tropical Storm DON Discussion
This will bring a very big dent into the Texas Drought. It won't cure it, but the drought certainly will recede by some point.
More discussion as more info comes out at noon.
68,028 Lightning Strikes in 12 hours!
From 6 PM CDT to 6 AM, 68,028 lightning strikes were observed in the Chicagoland area from July 27-28.
July 27, 2011 Dubuque, IA Storms Q & A (Historic Rainfall)
 |
| An image of the storms from 9 PM CDT last night. |
A: Officially 7.47 via the NWS for yesterday's rain and not early this morning, but news sources indicate 10+ inches as a storm total.
Q: What are the effects?
A: Reports of water rescues, bridges flooded, etc.
Q: How did this happen?
A: The storms in Dubuque didn't stop because more kept forming behind the ones that were already moving through. We call this 'training' in the weather world. It is similar to what happened in Chicago several days ago.
Q: How long did the storms go on for?
A: At least 7 hours.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
The Weather Centre will be going offline
We will be going offline starting at 10:50 PM CDT because of approaching storms.
July 27: StormTrack: Dangerous Chicago Storms
Red area in image above is cone of where the dangerous storms could go. We at the MSTT believe these storms will maintain their current strength, although there is a small possibility of weakening. However, these possibilities change by every minute.
We predict these storms to reach Chicago by 12:00 AM CDT.
These storms have exhibited 70-80 MPH wind gusts in Winnebago, IL and Rockford, IL.
July 27: Tornado Warning (Indicated Tornado)- Mount Carroll, IL
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR WESTERN CARROLL AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES... AT 936 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR MISSISSIPPI PALISADES...OR 11 MILES WEST OF MOUNT CARROLL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... SAVANNA AROUND 945 PM CDT... CENTER HILL AND WACKER AROUND 955 PM CDT... MOUNT CARROLL...ARGO FAY...8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHADWICK AND 8 MILES WEST OF LANARK AROUND 1000 PM CDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
July 27: Tornado Warning (Possible Tornado)- La Motte, IA
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY... AT 840 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR LA MOTTE...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF DUBUQUE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... COTTONVILLE AROUND 855 PM CDT... BELLEVUE...SMITHS AND SPRINGBROOK AROUND 915 PM CDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
July 27: Tornado Warning (Wall Cloud)- Bellevue, IA
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... SOUTHEASTERN DUBUQUE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA... * UNTIL 915 PM CDT. * AT 823 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A FUNNEL OR WALL CLOUD WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR ZWINGLE ...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF DUBUQUE... MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ZWINGLE AND OTTER CREEK THROUGH 840 PM CDT... LA MOTTE AROUND 850 PM CDT... COTTONVILLE AROUND 855 PM CDT... BELLEVUE...SPRINGBROOK AND SMITHS AROUND 915 PM CDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
July 27: Tornado Warning (Possible Tornado)- Freeport, IL
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN JO DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... NORTHERN STEPHENSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 830 PM CDT. * AT 745 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO 3 MILES NORTH OF STOCKTON...OR 19 MILES WEST OF FREEPORT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... KENT AROUND 755 PM CDT... WADDAMS GROVE AROUND 800 PM CDT... LAKE LEAQUANA STATE PARK AND LENA AROUND 805 PM CDT... ELEROY AND WINSLOW AROUND 815 PM CDT... MC CONNELL AROUND 820 PM CDT... BUENA VISTA...RED OAK AND DAMASCUS AROUND 825 PM CDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
July 27: Tornado Watch #694 (N. IL, E. IA) (Until 1 AM CDT)
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 694
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA
EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
DUBUQUE IOWA TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MEIGS FIELD ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF STORMS...SOME WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER. STRONG INSTABILITY AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM-SCALE ROTATION WITH DEVELOPING
STORMS ON THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND A
TORNADO OR TWO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE
CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN STRONGER COLD POOL GENERATION AND AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
650. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28020.July 27: Tornado Warning (Possible Tornado)- Near Dubuque, IA
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... SOUTHEASTERN DUBUQUE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA... JO DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 815 PM CDT. * AT 728 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR DUBUQUE REGIONAL AIRPORT...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF DUBUQUE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. ANOTHER STORM WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO IS 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALENA...ALSO MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MASSEY AROUND 740 PM CDT... ST. DONATUS AROUND 745 PM CDT... GALENA...AIKEN...RICE AND SMITHS THROUGH 800 PM CDT... GALENA TERRITORY AND RODDEN THROUGH 810 PM CDT... GUILFORD THROUGH 815 PM CDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
July 27: Storm Initiation Detected
Storm initiation has been detected in the Dubuque, IA area.
The HRRR model is evolving this system very well as of right now. That model projects a linear cluster of potential supercells to form from Dubuque into South WI, which will then move south and intercept North IL at around 11 PM CDT.
Tropical Storm DON Bulletin 1- July 27
...TROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 87.0W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON. WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. DON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
July 27 Severe Weather Bulletin
Severe weather parameters are skyrocketing.
CAPE values are now DOUBLE what they were forecast to be in the slight risk area today.
Due to the potential severity of these storms and that The Weather Centre's headquarters is in the path of these storms, The Weather Centre may cease posting and all communications with this blog at some point should we be affected by severe weather.
CAPE values are now DOUBLE what they were forecast to be in the slight risk area today.
Due to the potential severity of these storms and that The Weather Centre's headquarters is in the path of these storms, The Weather Centre may cease posting and all communications with this blog at some point should we be affected by severe weather.
July 27 Severe Weather Discussion
See the bottom of the post for a summary.
Discussion... Front lifting slowly northward will continue to slow down or come to a halt in the North IL/South WI area out west through Iowa. Storms will initiate tonight along that front. These storms will be heavy rain producers, and flash flood watches have been posted for South WI and portions of North IL. The same goes for a small portion of NE Iowa. As these thunderstorms initiate, the SPC believes these storms could have tornado potential. The storms could have a supercell twist, with energy so high. As a matter of fact, the latest SPC discussion laid out indicated that CAPE values are 1000-2000 j/kg HIGHER than expected. This means a larger threat for severe weather on a fairly larger scale. There are some issues, though. Warming is beginning to develop aloft, which would suppress storms. There is weak large scale forcing in the area, and heights are rising slowly. That said, there is certainly a threat for severe thunderstorms, but there are issues in the process of initiating them.Timing of these storms is crucial. The Rapid Refresh Model is indicating the storms beginning at 7 PM CDT of earlier, with impact time at 7-8 PM CDT.
The RUC model projects the storms to fire around 6 PM CDT, and impact the region throughout at least 1 AM CDT.
Summary:
-Storms will likely be severe in many aspects if they are to develop.
-It appears storms will begin to fire from 4-8 PM CDT, and impact the regions from 7 pm CDT onwards through the night.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)