Drought Conditions to Be Enhanced Over Next Week and Beyond

[July 15, 2012 8:03 PM CDT]

Below normal precipitation is what the NAEFS is forecasting for the next week and beyond, further enhancing the now-historical drought situation ongoing across the country.

A low pressure system is attempting to move into the Gulf of Alaska, which correlates to warmer than normal conditions across the country. The evolution of this drought will be interesting as we move through July into August, when the summer heat traditionally kicks in.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) looks to be entering a position where it does not significantly affect weather patterns, which could very well lead this high pressure ridge of heat to stick around for a while in the country.

Andrew

Auroras Likely to be Seen in Upper Midwest, New England

[July 15, 2012 7:56 PM CDT]

The latest aurora activity monitor indicates that the Aurora Borealis will most likely be seen in the Upper Midwest and northern New England this evening as a G2 geomagnetic storm continues to blast the Earth.

Latest indications are that aurora sightings could retreat north as the night goes on, but observed K index values tell me that parts of the Great Lakes and Northern Plains could also see some Northern Lights activity.

The strongest auroral activity will be present over central Canada, where a truly spectacular light show is in store this evening. Considering this is an uncommon X class solar flare that is producing this light show, the next time the aurora borealis slides this far south could be a while off.

Andrew

Geomagnetic Storm Continues; Auroras Down to Illinois Possible Tonight

The Planetary K index remains at unusually high levels between 5 and 6, indicative of a G2 geomagnetic storm ongoing across Earth. Effects of a G2 storm include:


-High latitude power issues
-Transformer damage from prolonged storms
-Spacecraft orbit issues
-Auroras seen as far south as New York and Idaho

This geomagnetic storm is expected to continue for a little while longer.

The K index does something more than tell the strength of a geomagnetic storm. It can also tell how far south the Aurora Borealis, or Northern Lights, may extend. Let's take a look.

When the K index is at 5, like it has been recently, the aurora borealis can be seen as far south as northern Michigan into Maine. When at 7, the aurora can be spotted through the Northeast and Lower Great Lakes into the Northern Plains.

Using the observed K index, as well as observed data from the ACE spacecraft roughly 1 million miles from Earth, I would expect the aurora borealis to extend to the 5 line shown above, with the potential of sightings of the Northern Lights in areas just to the south of that 5 line. I would not count aurora sightings in extreme southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois out this evening, although the potential is not too great.

Andrew

Aurora Borealis Strengthens as Solar Flare CME Continues

The Aurora Borelis, or Northern Lights, is strengthening as the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the recent X class solar flare continues to pound Earth.

A G2 geomagnetic storm is in effect at this time, which means the aurora can be seen as far south as New York of Idaho. However, I wouldn't get too excited, as the solar storm has been staying mainly in G1 geomagnetic storm strength, which would limit aurora sightings to northern Michigan and Maine.

Andrew

Solar Storm Strengthens; G2 Geomagnetic Storm Occurring

The Planetary K index continues to remain at unusually high levels, with overnight readings topping out at 6. As of the latest K index reading, the index stood at 5, indicative of a solar storm still ongoing.

Due to the spike into 6 on the K index, the Space Weather Prediction Center has called for 'G2' geomagnetic storm conditions to be occurring. Here are the effects from a G2 geomagnetic storm.

-High latitude power issues
-Transformer damage from prolonged storms
-Spacecraft orbit issues
-Auroras seen as far south as New York and Idaho

Radio disruptions are expected to continue as the geomagnetic storm fluctuates in intensity.

Andrew