Significant Tornado Outbreak Potential Rising

Key

Yellow: Some thunderstorms possible.

Orange: Thunderstorms likely, some may be strong to severe.

Red: Severe thunderstorms likely.

Pink: Several intense severe thunderstorms likely- risk of tornadoes and large hail.

Blue: Threat to life and property. Tornado outbreak likely.

I remain very worried about the situation unfolding for Saturday. As you may know, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for severe weather for Saturday. That is 2 days away. The last time the SPC issued a moderate risk for 2 days away was on April 27, 2011. That day ended with several deadly tornadoes.

I am seeing massive shearing and pretty substantial instability combining to make for several tornadic supercells that will, over time, come together and make a squall line that will mainly affect Arkansas eastward, but that is not printed on the above graphic right now.

As we approach the timeframe, expect WRF model graphics to be posted a lot on the Facebook Page.

Stay safe everyone.

Discussion on Saturday Severe Weather Threat Release Time

The discussion will be coming out at 4:00 PM CDT.

Serious Threat to Life and Property on Saturday

Threat of severe weather on Saturday

Probability of severe weather on Saturday within 25 miles.

Okay everyone, I know I said that this would be a pretty serious event, but the scope has been multiplied overnight as the Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk on Day 3. The last time this happened was on April 27, 2011, and we all know how that turned out.

There have been severe weather outbreaks, but this is an actual outbreak. I cannot stress enough how much you need to get ready if you live in the area in red. If this verifies, we will likely have a 'High Risk', which was also called on April 27, 2011.
There is a very serious threat to life and property in this situation. I am very worried for mass casualties as a result of tornadoes.

Here's the severe weather graphic I have printed up for Saturday.

Key
Yellow: Some thunderstorms possible.
Orange: Thunderstorms likely, some may be strong to severe.
Red: Severe thunderstorms likely.
Pink: Several intense severe thunderstorms likely- risk of tornadoes and large hail.
Blue: Threat to life and property. Tornado outbreak possible.