Sunday, January 8, 2012

Pattern Change is Coming

I am sticking with my idea that a cooler, potentially snowier pattern will arrive mid-late January. After looking through evidence, there is no reason to deny the pattern change. It is coming, folks.
I believe that winter will go out like a lion. You see, everything in the physical world wants to achieve equilibrium. Right now, there isn't much equilibrium to see, especially seeing as we are going through a major pattern change. I think that cold will be dominant from late January into March, still with shots of warm air.

Stratospheric Warming has taken big leaps recently, with a Significant Stratospheric Warming event occurring. This has helped warm the atmosphere as ridges push into the polar vortex to disrupt it. As these rigs disrupt the vortex, we will start seeing disturbances fly into the country as remnants from the strong lows in the polar vortex.
We are seeing the La Nina spread the cooler temperature anomalies westward across the ENSO monitoring area, indicating that the La Nina will be here to ride out the winter. While the SOI believes an El Nino is coming, I do not believe that and think that the assumption is wrong.
The now-occurring disruption of the polar vortex will lead to a negative Arctic Oscillation, which in turn will lead to cold air coming into the US. This cold air is not the cold air shot that will happen in the next several days. It will happen sooner rather than later, with the persistent cold likely entering the country in mid-late January.
The North Atlantic Oscillation is forecasted to go negative as well. If the Arctic Oscillation (AO) goes negative, usually the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will as well, because they are so closely related. Both are favorable for snow and cold in the Northeast.

Northern Stream to Take Over; Watching for Plowable Snow

We are seeing indications that the northern part of the storm track (energy hitting the Northwest, sliding south and sometimes coming up north again as a Panhandle Hooker type storm. Those are the types of storms that give MAJOR snows to people.

The HPC Discussion

PREFER TO TEMPER WITH 30% ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE AMIDUNCERTAINTY AND LOWERED EXPECTATIONS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIMITSYSTEM EJECTION OUT INTO/OUT FROM THE S-CENTRAL US NEXT WEEKEND TOA PERIOD WHEN NRN STREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT SHOULDBECOME MORE DOMINANT.


We are seeing an interesting scenario unfold, where the HPC believes the cutoff low system will stop and make way for the northern stream trough development. Upper Level Lows can be very powerful, so this could get very interesting.

We are also watching a feature that has appeared on the GFS:
hour 228
At hour 228, we see a low pressure system sitting around the Texas/Oklahoma border area. We are seeing a ridge offshore the West Coast help nudge the system slowly eastward, but also a ridge offshore the east coast that may push the system north.
hour 240
At hour 240, we are seeing the system strengthen, and what appears to be some colder air move in behind the system. Both ridges offshore both coasts are still in place. At this point, we are watching the East Coast ridge to see if it will force the system north.
hour 252
At hour 252, we see the system still stronger, but now moving farther east and likely putting down some plowable snow. Considering that the freezing line is around Chicago, we could see plowable snow in Iowa, Nebraska and parts of Missouri.
hour 264
At this point the system gets even stronger and starts moving north towards Canada. Plowable snow potentials are still widespread from Illinois to West Tennessee. Accumulations could be large, but since this is long range, we don't even know if it will happen.

Considering that the northern stream will start to open up, we may see some energy transfer from the northern stream into the system if it is to develop, as this system originates from the Southwest.

Theory Finished

We have finished the theory on if the pattern change will happen this winter and my thoughts on why I came to a solution.

It is being released at 12:00 PM CST.