I am sticking with my idea that a cooler, potentially snowier pattern will arrive mid-late January. After looking through evidence, there is no reason to deny the pattern change. It is coming, folks.
I believe that winter will go out like a lion. You see, everything in the physical world wants to achieve equilibrium. Right now, there isn't much equilibrium to see, especially seeing as we are going through a major pattern change. I think that cold will be dominant from late January into March, still with shots of warm air.
Stratospheric Warming has taken big leaps recently, with a Significant Stratospheric Warming event occurring. This has helped warm the atmosphere as ridges push into the polar vortex to disrupt it. As these rigs disrupt the vortex, we will start seeing disturbances fly into the country as remnants from the strong lows in the polar vortex.
We are seeing the La Nina spread the cooler temperature anomalies westward across the ENSO monitoring area, indicating that the La Nina will be here to ride out the winter. While the SOI believes an El Nino is coming, I do not believe that and think that the assumption is wrong.
The now-occurring disruption of the polar vortex will lead to a negative Arctic Oscillation, which in turn will lead to cold air coming into the US. This cold air is not the cold air shot that will happen in the next several days. It will happen sooner rather than later, with the persistent cold likely entering the country in mid-late January.
The North Atlantic Oscillation is forecasted to go negative as well. If the Arctic Oscillation (AO) goes negative, usually the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will as well, because they are so closely related. Both are favorable for snow and cold in the Northeast.
I believe that winter will go out like a lion. You see, everything in the physical world wants to achieve equilibrium. Right now, there isn't much equilibrium to see, especially seeing as we are going through a major pattern change. I think that cold will be dominant from late January into March, still with shots of warm air.
Stratospheric Warming has taken big leaps recently, with a Significant Stratospheric Warming event occurring. This has helped warm the atmosphere as ridges push into the polar vortex to disrupt it. As these rigs disrupt the vortex, we will start seeing disturbances fly into the country as remnants from the strong lows in the polar vortex.
We are seeing the La Nina spread the cooler temperature anomalies westward across the ENSO monitoring area, indicating that the La Nina will be here to ride out the winter. While the SOI believes an El Nino is coming, I do not believe that and think that the assumption is wrong.
The now-occurring disruption of the polar vortex will lead to a negative Arctic Oscillation, which in turn will lead to cold air coming into the US. This cold air is not the cold air shot that will happen in the next several days. It will happen sooner rather than later, with the persistent cold likely entering the country in mid-late January.
The North Atlantic Oscillation is forecasted to go negative as well. If the Arctic Oscillation (AO) goes negative, usually the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will as well, because they are so closely related. Both are favorable for snow and cold in the Northeast.