Fourth of July Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

July 3: Civil Emergency Message (Safety Precautions)- Flandreau, SD

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE MOODY
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

DUE TO RECENT STORMS...NUMEROUS TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN OR UPROOTED
IN FLANDREAU ON FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE DEBRIS HAS BEEN REMOVED HOWEVER
SEVERAL GAS LEAKS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF FLANDREAU
BECAUSE RESIDENTS HAVE TRIED TO PULL THE REMAINING ROOTS FROM THE
GROUND BEFORE TAKING PROPER SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS VERY
DANGEROUS. PLEASE DISCONTINUE THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL PROPER
AUTHORITIES ARE CONTACTED.

Weather Models Update

We have begun doing renovations, and to continue to service you, we have posted the page up again. It isn't in a pretty stage, but we don't want you to be without the weather models.
It will be going down periodically so we can clean up the page.

Conducting a major update to the Weather Models Page

In an effort to simplify the Weather Models page, we will be removing many models, even more links, and strip it down bare to rebuild the page from scratch.

Update: While taking down the page, we have encountered a major setback. Somehow, the page has reverted back to an old version of itself. This will complicate the procedure even further. Check back here for more updates as we continue to fix the page.

FloodWatch: July 3 7-Day Rainfall

This is the forecast 7 day rainfall as of July 3 (today).
We see a very abundant strip of rainfall in Indiana, raising concerns of flooding, as well as out by the Mississippi River in between Illinois and Iowa, where at least 4 inches of rain is forecast.

July 3 Fire Risk

There is a very high fire risk in North Texas, West Oklahoma, Central Texas for the next couple days.

July 3 Severe Weather Discussion

There is a slight risk of severe storms in the Montana area as a low pressure with a warm front moves into the area. Judging by how big the distance is, I would anticipate these storms to be more scattered. The Rapid Refresh may be trying to initiate a small cluster of cells just a bit south of the current slight risk area.
I do believe the slight risk area should be extended a bit farther south, potentially to the Montana border to suffice for the solution the Rapid Refresh is pumping out.
The main threats for that area will be damaging winds and hail. Right now, I wouldn't anticipate hail being the bigger deal, but in the stronger storms, I would expect to find some small hailstones.

A cold front will stretch across South Illinois, bending West Northwest into the Ohio Valley, where that front will create some showers and precipitation. In the Missouri area, where the cold front switches to a warm boundary, is where there is a low threat of some convection.
I do not believe hail will occur with these storms, but the strongest storms could produce some brief gusty winds and brief downpours.

Some thunderstorms are also possible in Arizona, where a low pressure offshore will create that chance. I do not anticipate any severe weather to occur, but brief downpours are not off the table.

Up in the Northeast, a cold front will sweep the area only a brief time after a waning warm front comes over the area. Because the cold front will be so quick to enter the area where the warm front passed, and because the warm front is so far away from the warm Gulf air, there won't be a favorable environment for severe convection. However, regular showers and storms appear likely as the two fronts pass through the region.

Today's Hail outlook

Today's Tornado Outlook

Today's Wind Outlook

Crude Oil leaking into Yellowstone River

An ExxonMobil pipeline appeared to have ruptured of some sort and is now linking an unspecified amount of oil into Yellowstone River.
80 personnel are currently on site from a regional response team, while 70 more are still en route.
Absorbent pads and booms have been activated to assist in cleaning the river. A team from the EPA is also on site.
The Yellowstone River is currently nearly a foot above flood stage as mountain snowpack continues to melt, leading some officials to hope that this high stage may push more water ashore.
The pipeline has been shut down to prevent more oil from leaking.