Arctic Outbreak OV/GL/NE Update #2

The above picture is how far out the GFSS would like to say the outbreak will affect the US. Obviously, the Ohio Valley and New England are going in for it more than the midwest, so I adjusted the title of this post accordingly.

The arctic outbreak has started. This image is CURRENT from the ECMWF model of higher elevation temperatures. The Canadian air reserves have been tapped, and now the cold begins.

What the EMCWF keeps saying is that it will not go down as far as it was going yesterday. But it is siding with yesterday's GFS and moving the outbreak into New England.

Arctic Outbreak MW/GL Update #1

Okay. Here's the first update.

I just refreshed the GFS model.

So, in this new model image of upper air temps, we can see, compared to earlier forecasts, the GFS is pushing the outbreak farther around all angles of the country. So the GFS has dared to go this far instead of hanging pack in the past model run.

Another update tomorrow.

Farewell.

Arctic Outbreak MW/GL Part 2

This is the second update to the possible outbreak of arctic air in the MW/GL in 7 days.

I have updated this for more evidence. The GFS has put up images of the outbreak. The following is a series of images from the GFS.

Arctic Outbreak MW/GL?!?!?

Yes, that's right folks! The ECMWF model has put out the fact that an arctic outbreak may occur this week in the Midwest and Great Lakes region.

This time period was in the 7 day range going into 8 day range. Yes I know, not very reliable.

The above picture is from the ECMWF model made in Europe. I clearly outlined the area where the MW/GL are may see some very cold air.

Below is the same general time period from the GFS.

So we can see the very cold Canadian air flowing in from the North. And some spotty lake effect showers by the Eastern GL.





I also analyzed another picture from the GFS about temps in the range that the first picture from the ECMWF model was indicating.




So the GFS gives us the same scoop about this.
So we have two major models predicting a very cold period to come in the next week.

I did check the ensembles, but they aren't particularly throwing that in. However, with two well known and reputable models versus several unheard of models, I believe that there is quite a chance that the GL/MW area could see an arctic outbreak in about 6 or 7 days.

WRF-AVN Model run

This is for the next 60 hours.

So, in hour 30, the AVN was tracking the storm that had come from the Northwest faster than the WRF was. The AVN had the front edge of the storm in the Dakotas and the WRF hadn't got there yet.

In hour 36-42, the AVN keeps moving along, prompting a squall line?? to form in Iowa while the WRF is only begining to do that in hour 42.

In hour 48, both models have caught up with each other, but the WRF remains a tad slow. Both models show another storm from the NW come in. The AVN shows higher overall totals in the NW than the WRF.

In hour 60, both models are on the same page in all levels.