Christmas Storm Analysis

Hello everyone! This is the Chief Meteorologist for The Weather Centre here to give you the news on the potential Christmas Storm for the Midwest and Southern US.

Right now, it's the ECMWF model we're concerned about. Reason why is, that when the GFS and the other models were north, the ECMWF model took to the south. Soon enough, the other models proceeded to follow the European model to the south. The ECMWF will be referred to as Euro, ECM, or European model.

We realize it's only one model that apparently changed 5 other models' minds, and it seems sort of insane and unrealistic. Well, the Euro can do that. It's puzzling.

But about every model agrees on going south. But many models aren't as far south as the ECMWF.

Those are the model concerns.

For the other concerns, the HPC decided to mess up everyone's predictions on the storm and show the heaviest snow to be in Central Illinois to Iowa. It does seem realistic, but with models changing every 6 hours, you never know what could happen.

That midrange swing I talked about with models still has potential to happen. The midrange swing is when the model track suddenly dives, but then works its way back up, ever so slowly.

However, with each run that the swing doesn't happen is each chance lost. The potential dims with every run.

I'm gaining confidence in a few things right now.

*Heaviest precip will be somewhere around Iowa and Central Illinois.

*Models will have a firm track once the storm has been sampled.

Area of Concern For Christmas Storm

THE NORTH IS BACK!

The North (Illinois, Iowa, etc.) Areas are back in the race for the heaviest snow!

HPC Graphics

Illinois/NW Indiana Snow Amounts Dec. 20-21 (NWS)

NORTHERN ILLINOIS SNOW

LOCATION (COUNTY): FALL(INCHES)

ELBURN (KANE).................................6.0

ELBURN (KANE).................................6.0

STERLING 4NE (LEE)............................6.0

MARSEILLES (LA SALLE).........................5.4

DWIGHT (LIVINGSTON)...........................5.0

OREGON (OGLE).................................5.0

ROCHELLE (OGLE)...............................5.0

STREATOR (LIVINGSTON).........................5.0

BYRON 3N (OGLE)...............................4.8

DE KALB (DE KALB).............................4.6

DE KALB (DE KALB).............................4.5

MARSEILLES 6WNW (LA SALLE)....................4.5

YORKVILLE 2SE (KENDALL).......................4.5

PEOTONE (WILL)................................4.4

PEOTONE (WILL)................................4.4

BURR RIDGE 2SW (DU PAGE)......................4.3

GENOA (DE KALB)...............................4.2

MONTGOMERY 1SSE (KENDALL).....................4.2

YORKVILLE 1W (KENDALL)........................4.2

MONTGOMERY 2SSE (KENDALL).....................4.2

DIXON 3NNW (LEE)..............................4.2

PLANO (KENDALL)...............................4.2

OTTAWA 2N (LA SALLE)..........................4.1

ROCKFORD (WINNEBAGO)..........................4.1

ROCKFORD 4NW (WINNEBAGO)......................4.1

STEWARD (LEE).................................4.1

EARLVILLE 3S (LA SALLE).......................4.0

LISLE (DU PAGE)...............................4.0

WATSEKA 5W (IROQUOIS).........................4.0

OSWEGO 5SSE (KENDALL).........................4.0

YORKVILLE 1NE (KENDALL).......................4.0

OTTAWA 1NW (LA SALLE).........................4.0

LA SALLE (LA SALLE)...........................4.0

ALGONQUIN 1N (MCHENRY)........................4.0

ROCKFORD 3NE (WINNEBAGO)......................4.0

MENDOTA (LA SALLE)............................4.0

OTTAWA (LA SALLE).............................4.0

PARK FOREST (COOK)............................4.0

PONTIAC (LIVINGSTON)..........................4.0

ST ANNE (KANKAKEE)............................4.0

WOODSTOCK (MCHENRY)...........................4.0

CHANNAHON (WILL)..............................3.9

NAPERVILLE 1NW (DU PAGE)......................3.9

HAWTHORN WOODS 1N (LAKE)......................3.9

BULL VALLEY 2WNW (MCHENRY)....................3.9

JOLIET (WILL).................................3.9

ROSCOE 2ESE (WINNEBAGO).......................3.9

JOLIET (WILL).................................3.9

ROSCOE 2SE (WINNEBAGO)........................3.9

ST CHARLES 7NW (KANE).........................3.9

ROCKTON 1ESE (WINNEBAGO)......................3.8

JOLIET 2N (WILL)..............................3.8

LA GRANGE (COOK)..............................3.8

PERU (LA SALLE)...............................3.8

ROMEOVILLE (WILL).............................3.7

PLAINFIELD (WILL).............................3.7

COAL CITY 4NNW (GRUNDY).......................3.6

ELK GROVE VILLAGE 1ESE (COOK).................3.6

HOMEWOOD (COOK)...............................3.6

ELK GROVE VILLAGE 2WSW (COOK).................3.6

CARBON HILL (GRUNDY)..........................3.6

MINOOKA (GRUNDY)..............................3.6

HOMER GLEN 4WNW (WILL)........................3.6

WAUCONDA (LAKE)...............................3.6

ORLAND HILLS 1S (COOK)........................3.5

CAROL STREAM 1WNW (DU PAGE)...................3.5

WESTMONT 1SSE (DU PAGE).......................3.5

LISLE 1SE (DU PAGE)...........................3.5

GENEVA 1SSW (KANE)............................3.5

SENECA 1NE (LA SALLE).........................3.5

HUNTLEY 4W (MCHENRY)..........................3.5

CRETE 3E (WILL)...............................3.5

NEW LENOX 2SE (WILL)..........................3.5

ROCKFORD 1NW (WINNEBAGO)......................3.5

KANKAKEE (KANKAKEE)...........................3.5

PAW PAW (LEE).................................3.5

BATAVIA (KANE)................................3.4

CHICAGO RIDGE (COOK)..........................3.4

ASHTON (LEE)..................................3.4

MANHATTAN 5ENE (WILL).........................3.4

MIDWAY 3SW (COOK).............................3.4

MONEE (WILL)..................................3.4

MORRIS (GRUNDY)...............................3.4

OAK BROOK (DU PAGE)...........................3.4

ELGIN (KANE)..................................3.3

PALATINE 1E (COOK)............................3.3

INVERNESS 2S (COOK)...........................3.3

NAPERVILLE 3ESE (DU PAGE).....................3.3

MARENGO (MCHENRY).............................3.3

BOURBONNAIS (KANKAKEE)........................3.2

PARK FOREST 1NNE (COOK).......................3.2

AURORA 4SE (DU PAGE)..........................3.2

BATAVIA 2WNW (KANE)...........................3.2

ELBURN 3NNE (KANE)............................3.2

HOMER GLEN 1ENE (WILL)........................3.2

WATSEKA (IROQUOIS)............................3.2

WESTMONT (DU PAGE)............................3.2

WOODSTOCK 5NW (MCHENRY).......................3.2

GLEN ELLYN 1SE (DU PAGE)......................3.1

PAXTON (FORD).................................3.1

BATAVIA 1WNW (KANE)...........................3.1

BUFFALO GROVE 2N (LAKE).......................3.1

SHERIDAN (LA SALLE)...........................3.1

LAKE ZURICH (LAKE)............................3.1

STREAMWOOD (COOK).............................3.1

BARRINGTON (LAKE).............................3.0

CHATSWORTH (LIVINGSTON).......................3.0

HARVARD (MCHENRY).............................3.0

EVERGREEN PARK (COOK).........................3.0

WORTH (COOK)..................................3.0

COUNTRYSIDE 1ENE (COOK).......................3.0

LA GRANGE PARK 1SSW (COOK)....................3.0

DOWNERS GROVE 2SE (DU PAGE)...................3.0

COAL CITY (GRUNDY)............................3.0

SUGAR GROVE 1NE (KANE)........................3.0

NORTH AURORA 2NE (KANE).......................3.0

CHATSWORTH (LIVINGSTON).......................3.0

JOLIET LOCK/DAM (WILL)........................3.0

LANSING (COOK)................................3.0

MILFORD (IROQUOIS)............................3.0

MCHENRY (MCHENRY).............................3.0

OHARE (COOK)..................................3.0

SPRING GROVE 2N (MCHENRY).....................3.0

WILLOW SPRINGS (COOK).........................3.0

ELGIN (KANE)..................................2.9

HOFFMAN ESTATES 5W (COOK).....................2.9

ELGIN 1S (KANE)...............................2.9

LAKE VILLA 1SSW (LAKE)........................2.9

WONDER LAKE 1WNW (MCHENRY)....................2.9

FAIRBURY (LIVINGSTON).........................2.8

HERSCHER (KANKAKEE)...........................2.8

MUNDELEIN (LAKE)..............................2.8

WINFIELD (DU PAGE)............................2.8

RIVERWOODS (LAKE).............................2.7

FOX LAKE 2E (LAKE)............................2.6

BOTANIC GARDENS (COOK)........................2.5

CHICAGO 6ESE (COOK)...........................2.5

OAK PARK 2S (COOK)............................2.5

OAK PARK 1SW (COOK)...........................2.5

OAK PARK 1NNE (COOK)..........................2.5

LINCOLNWOOD 2E (COOK).........................2.5

CORTLAND (DE KALB)............................2.5

ROSELLE 1ESE (DU PAGE)........................2.5

AMBOY (LEE)...................................2.5

LAKE BLUFF 1W (LAKE)..........................2.4

STICKNEY 1W (COOK)............................2.3

WAUKEGAN 2N (LAKE)............................2.3

PAXTON (FORD).................................2.0

ANTIOCH (LAKE)................................1.7

BEACH PARK 1W (LAKE)..........................1.7

NORTHWEST INDIANA SNOW

LOCATION (COUNTY): FALL(INCHES)

DE MOTTE 4SW (JASPER).........................4.0

KENTLAND 1NNW (NEWTON)........................4.0

BROOK 4W (NEWTON).............................4.0

LAKE VILLAGE (NEWTON).........................3.5

LOWELL (LAKE).................................3.2

DE MOTTE 1SSW (JASPER)........................3.0

REMINGTON (JASPER)............................3.0

MERRILLVILLE 4E (LAKE)........................3.0

MOROCCO (NEWTON)..............................3.0

RENSSELAER (JASPER)...........................3.0

REMINGTON (JASPER)............................2.8

LAKES OF THE FOUR SEASONS 2NNE (PORTER).......2.7

PORTER 1S (PORTER)............................2.7

HAMMOND 3SW (LAKE)............................2.5

HOBART 2E (LAKE)..............................2.5

KOUTS 3N (PORTER).............................2.5

PORTAGE 1ESE (PORTER).........................2.5

VALPARAISO 2N (PORTER)........................2.5

DYER 1WNW (LAKE)..............................2.4

CROWN POINT 1N (LAKE).........................2.4

VALPARAISO 5NNE (PORTER)......................2.4

VALPARAISO 5NNE (PORTER)......................2.4

HEBRON 4NE (PORTER)...........................2.3

VALPARAISO 1ENE (PORTER)......................2.3

VALPARAISO 6WSW (PORTER)......................2.2

CROWN POINT 8E (PORTER).......................2.1

VALPARAISO 1NNW (PORTER)......................2.1

CROWN POINT 2WSW (LAKE).......................2.0

VALPARAISO 1SE (PORTER).......................2.0

VALPARAISO 5WSW (PORTER)......................2.0

HIGHLAND 1N (LAKE)............................1.9

VALPARAISO 2NW (PORTER).......................1.9

VALPARAISO 4SW (PORTER).......................1.8

VALPARAISO 1WSW (PORTER)......................1.4

JMA , GEM QPF

JMA Chicago from Lake effect