Midwest Winter Weather Discussion

A WINTER STORM IS POISED TO AFFECT THE MIDWEST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME, GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A TRACK TO RANGE FROM THE WI/IL BORDER TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ECMWF MODEL HAS CREATED A COMPROMISE THAT APPEARS TO BE SMOOTH ENOUGH TO WORK.

HEAVIEST SNOW NOW APPEARS LIKELY IN THE WISCONSIN AREA. HOWEVER, IN THE SOUTH WI/ NORTH IL AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE AN ALL SNOW EVENT, A RESPECTABLE SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU ARE FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN, THE LOWER SNOW RATIOS, MEANING WETTER SNOW AND LESSER ACCUMULATIONS.

I AM NOT TOO FOND OF THE ECMWF ATTM, DUE TO A MAJOR FLUCTUATION OVER THE LAST 2-3 RUNS THAT MADE ME LOSE SOME CONFIDENCE WITH SETTING A DEFINITE TRACK.

HOWEVER, SINCE A SLIGHT MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES AGREE, I WILL LEAN TO A CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TRACK, ADDING IN TO THE SOUTH PORTION DUE TO A CONSISTENT GFS THROUGH THE LAST 3-4 RUNS.

Notice

The 'computer model' will not be created.

That is the only change.

Notice

All winter storm forecasts will now be posted on the Winter Storm Central.

Daily weather reports will be found on the main blog posts.

Also, I am working to create an extremely simple yet ideal 'computer model'.

18Z GFS Model Track

I will stick with my graphic issued on the Winter Storm Page despite the GFS.

We're still 4-6 days out.

Significant Midwest Storm (January 17-19th) 00z GFS Analysis

This is the significant Midwest storm analysis potential for January 17th-19th. This is a 00z run, which is fairly old. I will be posting the new 18z run in a new post. So above, a deepening low will be in the Ohio Valley. As it deepens, the snow will become much more widespread and heavy over particularly the Southern Great Lakes.
Above, 6 hours later, the deepening low appears to be pulling moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, thus enhancing snowfall totals in the Southern Great Lakes.
Above, another 6 hours further, the storm begins to what may be collapsing, and the rain/snow line pushes up. However, most areas remain in an area of snow.
Above, still 6 hours further, the storm becomes defined in the Ohio Valley, bringing rain with it. Still, back in the Midwest, a band of heavy snow is thought to be occurring in North Illinois, with widespread light to moderate snow over the entire Midwest.
Finally, in the final 6 hours, the low moves off. The Midwest remains in the snow, and it slowly decreases in intensity throughout the next 18-24 hours.

Another analysis will be posted next.