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CMC finally wins out; model consensus forms

The CMC, which was the only model to have a storm explode over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region, has won out over the other models.

The ECMWF, GFS, CMC, NOGAPS models are now all in agreement that a very strong low pressure system will head up somewhere in the Ohio Valley after crossing through South Illinois.

While the NOGAPS is farthest south in this transistion north, it is also the most powerful.
The ECMWF and GFS seem to be in very good agreement with each other over what a current track would be.

The ECMWF is northerly, but it is quite a contender.
I will keep in some CMC model, since it has been forecasting this pattern for the last couple days.

ECMWF changes mind, but other models already pushing north.

The ECMWF has changed its mind for the Midwest/ Ohio Valley storm, but the CMC, NOGAPS models had already latched on to some of that ECMWF pull north.

Current thinking is that the storm will not have a sure track until Sunday or Monday.

However, The Weather Centre will continue to issue graphics to keep you updated.

A forecast discussion will be issued this afternoon.

Aggressive ECMWF model ignites snowstorm potential for Midwest

The ECMWF model, considered a leader in winter storms, is taking a big and bold step to take a very strong storm through the Midwest and Ohio Valley early next week Monday to Tuesday.

The below images are 850mb and temperature forecasts for the winter storm.

The low pressure is well defined in Oklahoma and Arkansas with an intense cold outbreak behind it.

By the next day, the low pressure has moved into the Ohio Valley and even more well defined.

The cold outbreak is very intense by now. Below is a map made by The Weather Centre.

Here at the Weather Centre, we are expecting, should this storm develop, the above areas would be under a risk of precipitation.

It would be a wide swath of snow to the north and rain to the south.

The situation will likely change, so find more information on the Winter Storm page as this develops.

Current Severe Weather Situation (Jan 25)

As of 4:42pm CDT, a squall line was moving through Florida with a tornado watch in effect.