GFS model was deemed an outlier by weather forecasters this morning, but many/all models have been wading south to the GFS, mystifying many observers of model data.
A reputed meteorologist reported that, including the Blizzard of 2011, storms in a set-up like this one may begin forecasting too far south. This meteorologist seemed to be indicating a north turn around by the models is still possible. The storm remains a couple days away.
At this time, The Weather Centre sees this storm as incredibly complex. Will not issue maps until tomorrow for most accuracy; see no point in making obsolete maps.
The Weather Centre believes the models are behaving strangely by all following one model deemed an outlier. Even the ECMWF, labeled consistent in this storm, shifted south.
Will continue monitoring this situation.
With that storm comes severe weather concern.
At this time, probability is high that at least a moderate outbreak of severe weather will occur.
Any developments will be monitored.
