May 31- Storm Aftermath (Explanation of why nothing happened)

The storms that were supposed to carry an extreme damaging wind threat did not form.
The cold front is currently in West Indiana as I post.
Why did nothing happen?

For the Great Lakes areas such as Chicago, it was all cloud cover.
Clouds out ahead of the system brought the storm threat to minimal. Not nearly enough instability was generated to support even strong storms.

For other areas, it was the same thing.
Even right now, a massive wall of clouds is way out ahead of the cold front, also cutting out on instability. However, in those areas, daytime sunshine has already made the atmosphere unstable, so stronger storms are more likely for those areas in the Ohio Valley.

May 31, 2011 Severe Weather Forecast

There is a moderate risk of severe weather in the 'glove' of Michigan.

DISCUSSION
An upper low and shortwave trough will eject into the area forecast for severe weather today. Deep level flow fields appear to be favorable for organized severe storms with damaging winds and hail.
It appears to be that storms will increase in coverage as the cold front ejects into western upper Michigan and Central Wisconsin, with an increase in intensity as the storms move through North IL, IN, and east across lower MI.
The storm modes appear to be bowing segments and supercells early on, which will transition into a more widespread severe wind threat. It was, in the end, the wind threat that initiated the moderate risk area.
As the storms turn linear, along with other factors, the tornado threat is not favorable for tornadoes.

Today's hail outlook

Today's wind outlook

Today's tornado outlook

May 30: Local Area Emergency (Dam Overflow)- East Fork Spring Creek Dam, MT

OCAL AREA EMERGENCY
MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY SERVICES
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
949 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS 

TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY SERVICES.

EAST FORK SPRING CREEK DAM 

HAS WATER FLOWING OVER THE SPILLWAY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLOW 

OF WATER INTO SPRING CREEK. RESIDENTS
IN LOW-LYING AREAS SHOULD BE 

AWARE OF FURTHER FLOODING POTENTIAL.
THE DAM IS FUNCTIONING THE WAY 

IT WAS DESIGNED.

THE FERGUS COUNTY DEPARTMENT 

OF EMERGENCY SERVICES IS ALSO
RECOMMENDING ONLY ESSENTIAL 

TRAVEL ON ROADS ACROSS FERGUS COUNTY DUE
TO WIDESPREAD FLOOD DAMAGE TO ROADS.

May 30: Tornado Warning- Eddyville, NE

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 

FOR WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY
UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 743 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF 

EDDYVILLE...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF
LEXINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EDDYVILLE.

May 30: Tornado Warning- Emery, SD

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN HANSON COUNTY IN 

SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
  NORTHEASTERN HUTCHINSON 

COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
  WESTERN MCCOOK COUNTY IN 

SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 742 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE

OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
  DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES 

NORTHWEST OF CLAYTON...OR 20
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF MITCHELL...AND

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EMERY AND ALEXANDRIA AROUND 750 PM CDT...
  BRIDGEWATER AND FARMER AROUND 755 PM CDT...
  SPENCER AROUND 800 PM CDT...

THIS STORM WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL 

TO PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS AS WELL AS WINDS TO 80 MPH.