June 1- 30% chance of tropical cyclone development (Atlantic Ocean)

The National Hurricane Center has outlined a storm system to the east of Florida for possible development  today before moving over Florida and weakening.
However, if the system continues to move west from Florida and reaches the Gulf of Mexico, it could redevelop even stronger and possibly into a tropical cyclone.

Above is the satellite view of the system. We can see the system is small but very compact. Upon looking very closely, it does appear some circulation may be occurring in the system.
We do have ensembles of forecast tracks and intensity.

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This ensemble shows an ensemble of several models for the forecast track of this system. Right now, the popular [track is for the system to cross Florida and keep close to the Gulf of Mexico. Then, the low is forecast to come onshore either on Texas or Louisiana and curve through Texas. A couple models actually take the low through the Plains.

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This is an intensity forecast as of how strong this system could get. All the models bring this system to at least minimal tropical storm system status. 2 models actually get close to Category 1 hurricane status, and one of those models does take the low into that strength category.

In summary, I do expect a potential tropical storm to occur, but it does look like the storm will dissipate as it crosses Florida. Everyone in Florida should be prepared for heavy rains and gusty winds regardless of development, and the Gulf Coast folk should keep an eye to the skies and this blog for further daily, in-depth information.

May 31- Cloud Tops in Grand Rapids, MI reach up to 55,000 feet

Cloud tops in Grand Rapids, MI have reached up to 55,000 feet with the storms occurring, especially near the thumb of the 'glove' of Michigan above.
55,000 feet is uncommon, especially for areas like Michigan.

May 31- VIL returns in Grand Rapids, MI indicative of hail

VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid) values are very high up with the storms occurring in Grand Rapids, Michigan. VIL is a way to determine hail. The higher the VIL value, the more likelihood of hail and larger the hail size.
As we can see, a storm on the Grand Rapids radar is past 65 units. This means that hail is likely occurring in that area.

Notice of Changes May 31, 2011

As of now, The Weather Centre has deemed it appropriate to delete the following post series:

-Place to Be
-Daily Severe Weather Discussions

However, The Weather Centre has deleted these post series and made the series into pages. These pages are accessible by clicking on the tabs located below the title and description of this blog.

The Daily Severe Weather Discussions can now be found under the Severe Weather Center page.
The Place to Be can be found under the Place to Be page.

This move was made to save posting space and provide more detailed information in more space.

May 31: Tornado Warning- Sanford, MI

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 

FOR SOUTHERN MIDLAND COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 634 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER 

SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF 

PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHEPHERD

...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OIL CITY AROUND 645 PM EDT.
  SANFORD AND AVERILL AROUND 655 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS 

SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  SANFORD...            PLEASANT VALLEY...    OIL CITY...
  MIDLAND...