June 19- Moderate Risk Severe Weather Discussion

This is a MODERATE RISK Severe Weather Discussion. 
There is a moderate risk in effect for:
-Northwest Kansas
-Extreme SW Iowa
-Extreme NW Missouri
-Much of south Nebraska


Today's severe weather discussion will be the Storm Prediction Center's Public Severe Weather Outlook and then my own take on this situation below the outlook.

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
   OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
   
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
   
          EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO
          SOUTHWEST IOWA
          NORTHERN KANSAS
          NORTHWEST MISSOURI
          SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
   
   ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...INTO THE
   CAROLINAS.
   
   A LARGE UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE
   INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY.  MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL
   DEEPEN OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
   NORTHERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
   SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
   OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THESE STORMS WILL POSE A
   RISK OF VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. 
   THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING CLUSTER DURING THE
   EVENING WITH A RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF
   EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER
   DARK.
   
   STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
   SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
   WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
   WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
   TODAY.

My take on this severe weather is that today's storms will probably contain at least one 

tornado. That's just the plain fact of it.

These storms are setting up to go supercellular, and once that happens, rotation will only need to take place and up goes a tornado warning.

However, this isn't doomsday, either. This is still just a moderate risk of storms. While it is something to keep a close eye on, this event likely won't be a horrendous outbreak like 

back in April 25-27.

I will issue updates to keep everyone up to the minute of developments.

Current Hail outlook (Likely triggered moderate risk area)

Current Tornado Threat

Current High Wind threat

June 18- Tropical Cyclone Discussion- Evening Update, East Pacific Ocean

This is only an update.

This system has not changed in organization and retains a 60% chance for development over the next 2 days.
The only difference from this morning is a greatly increased prospect for strength into hurricane strength.

June 18- Tornado Warning: Carson, ND

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
  CENTRAL MORTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT/530 PM MDT/

* AT 500 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF CARSON...OR 41 MILES SOUTHWEST
  OF BISMARCK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ALMONT.

June 18- Tornado Warning: Cheyenne Wells, CO

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

* UNTIL 515 PM MDT

* AT 424 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF FIRSTVIEW...AND WAS MOVING
  SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FIRSTVIEW...CHEYENNE WELLS AND ARAPAHOE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 136 AND 162.

June 18- KSGF Sounding indicative of dangerous atmosphere

I'll just say this right off the bat, this is a very hard map to understand, and I will explain everything that needs to be explained.

This sounding from Springfield, Missouri indicates that the atmosphere is very unstable and dangerous right now.
CAPE levels are above 5000 j/kg. To give you a scope of how dangerously unstable that is, the threshold for severe storms begins at 2000 j/kg of CAPE. So 5000 j/kg could easily produce dangerous thunderstorms.
The lifted index is at -12, which is considered rare for atmospheric conditions. The lower the LI, the more unstable.
The SigSevere parameter, which can indicate if significant severe weather will occur (F2+ tornadoes, very large hail, extreme winds), usually begins at 20,000. Currently, Springfield, MO is reporting a SigSevere amount at 84,000 units.

Luckily, the jet stream at 300 millibars is only at 40 knots, which isn't too impressive, but is still a fair amount. The lower level jet stream is the same speed.
Hodographs (data showing the atmosphere rotating as it moves up in the atmosphere levels) are somewhat interesting at lower levels, suggesting low level rotation may be possible with storms, but upper level rotation is limited and overall not too organized.

Now, the only question is if storms will occur there.
We will see as we go on into the night.