July 10 Severe Weather Discussion

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over the following areas:
-Wisconsin
-North IL
-Much of Nebraska
-Iowa
-Much of Minnesota
-East South Dakota
-Southeast North Dakota

SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system with attached warm front and trough will move east and initiate showers and thunderstorms in the Dakotas. That warm front will then turn into a warm front in Wisconsin, where that will also initiate storms.

Conditions will be favorable for supercells in the same areas as yesterday as a moderate mid level flow off the higher elevations out west will provide forcing into a very moist environment to initiate thunderstorms.

Following excerpts from the SPC

...CNTRL HI PLNS INTO NEB THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY SUN...
   SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SETUP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AFTN/EVE STORMS OVER THE RCKYS OF CO AND SRN
   WY.  THIS REGION WILL AGAIN LIE BENEATH BRANCH OF MODERATE /30+ KT/
   WSWLY MID LVL FLOW IMMEDIATELY TOPPING S CNTRL U.S. UPR RIDGE. 
   SETUP SHOULD FOSTER ENE PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND INTO DEEPLY MIXED/FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
   CNTRL HI PLNS.  SOME OF THE STORMS COULD YIELD SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DMGG WIND.  NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SLY LLJ AND PRESENCE OF
   DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM FLOW /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
   SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER THAT COULD
   EXTEND THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS FAR E AS
   CNTRL/ERN NEB BY EARLY SUN.

AMPLE MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
   UPR 60S F/ BENEATH DEEP EML WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
   /SBCAPE AOA 4000 J PER KG/.  COUPLED WITH 40+ KT WLY DEEP
   SHEAR...SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND DMGG WIND.  WHILE DEEP WIND PROFILES LARGELY WILL BE
   UNIDIRECTIONAL...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT LOW LVL
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST TO POSE A THREAT FOR
   TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/STNRY FRONT REMNANTS
   FROM CNTRL SD/S CNTRL ND ESE INTO WRN MN AND PERHAPS NE NEB/NRN IA. 
   THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ESE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN
   DAKOTAS/MN...WI/IA...AND POSSIBLY NRN IL THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY SUN
   IN THE FORM OF ONE OR TWO SMALL MCSS.
Hail outlook
Tornado outlook
today's wind outlook

July 9: Tornado Warning- Goodland, KS

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SHERMAN COUNTY
UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

AT 710 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF RULETON...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OF EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN SHERMAN COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 21 AND 30.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 157 AND 169.

2011-2012 Winter Forecast: MEI June Update

Stay tuned for the next update (by August 6th, or earlier) to see where the MEI will be heading next. La Niña conditions have at least briefly expired in the MEI sense, making ENSO-neutral conditions the safest bet for the next few months. However, a relapse into La Niña conditions is not at all off the table, based on the reasoning I gave in September 2010 - big La Niña events have a strong tendency to re-emerge after 'taking time off' during northern hemispheric summer, as last seen in 2008. I believe the odds for this are still better than 50/50.

The MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) is an agency that monitors ENSO conditions. The above paragraph is a small portion of what it has published for the June update.
The MEI will be updating again this month soon, and when it does we will be posting the update. 
The reason I have posted this is to recognize the fact that there is scientific evidence by respected scientific officials for a chance of a strong La Nina re-occurring after settling down for the summer.
You can see other 2011-2012 winter forecast posts on the right sidebar.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

July 9 Tropical Cyclone Calvin (45 MPH Winds) Discussion

Tropical Cyclone Calvin is currently far out west of Mexico and moving WNW at 9 miles per hour. Calvin is currently weakening at a rapid pace and will die out in the next 48-72 hours.

I apologize for such short discussions, but I need so regain my energy. For some reason I am very tired in the last week.
You can go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?epac for more information on Calvin.

Update on 2011-2012 Winter

Thanks to extensive research by a fellow weather enthusiast, it has been determined that the winter of 2011-2012 appears to have probabilities of being similar to the winter of 1995-1996.

Based on that research, I have pulled up some maps regarding the winter of 1995-1996.
Temperature Anomalies of winter of 1995-1996 compared to long term average

Precipitation anomalies for Nov.-Feb. 1995-1996 with regards to long term averages

While unfortunately we cannot superimpose these images together, we are able to determine that the west wing of the US should be warmer than average, with the east portion of the US to be cooler than average, including all of the Great Lakes. The Central Plains could be at an average.
Precipitation wise, a strip of lower precipitation amounts existed from West Kentucky and through Arkansas into Texas. The West Coast was very wet in the winter of 1995-1996, while the Northeast and portions of the Southeast were slightly above average in precipitation.

While details are impossible to figure out this far out, we will provide more data as we receive it. Look on the right sidebar and click '2011-2012 Winter Forecast' tag for all posts regarding that topic.