August 11 Severe Weather Discussion (Featuring TornadoTrack Map)

Discussion... At around 11 PM- 1 AM CDT, EHI (instability and spinning index) will spike in the area noted above. At the same time, shearing in the atmosphere will appear to the tune of around 50 knots in some levels from the surface to that level in the atmosphere. However, here's the thing: that will only be happening in the Surface-to-500 millibars and no other levels. It would be ideal to have more shearing in other levels of the atmosphere. Instability will be elevated, to the point of around 1500-2250 j/kg. However, it will only be elevated in western areas of the TornadoTrack.
So, why did we put up a pretty good tornado threat? Because of the front and surface winds. Surface winds, while weak, will be haywire, and that enhances the tornado threat. That, combined with the EHI could make for a potentially tornadic situation.
Today is like one of those 'it-happens-or-it-doesn't' days. There certainly is potential, but there's also potential for this situation not to happen.

2ND VERSION of the 2011-2012 Winter Forecast Release Date

The 2nd version of the 2011-2012 Winter Forecast will be released August 14th.
We feel confident in this new forecast, and we will have our first official winter forecast out around mid September.

August 10 Severe Weather Discussion

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/ERN OK EWD INTO
   THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ONLY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN THIS
   PERIOD...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SWRN STATES...VERY
   WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NW...AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO LIE NNW-SSE ALONG
   THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN MORE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/MID LOWER
   MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL COINCIDE WITH
   A ZONE OF CONVECTIVE/LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...SERN KS/ERN OK EWD INTO THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS...
   SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION IN TERMS OF
   DETAILS...AS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ONGOING FROM NEB SWD INTO OK WILL
   BE SHIFTING INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 
   PRESUMING AMPLE DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LINGERING
   CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD REINTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON -- AIDED
   BY MODERATE WLY/WNWLY FLOW ALOFT.  
   
   STORMS SHOULD SHIFT EWD/ESEWD WITH TIME...MOVING ACROSS THE
   MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY...BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE
   EVENING INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  IN THE MEAN TIME...THREATS FOR
   HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLIGHT
   RISK AREA.
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS...
   ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE EVENING FROM
   SWRN MT SEWD/SWD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE REGION...AS
   AIRMASS BECOMES MODESTLY UNSTABLE IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME
   HEATING.  WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION/WEAK
   ROTATION...EXPECT STRONGER CELLS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
   WINDS AND HAIL.  ATTM...LIMITED COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED...WHICH
   PRECLUDES MORE THAN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
   
   ...THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...
   COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH
   DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD MODEST AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...AND
   EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS -- AIDED BY MODERATE
   FLOW ALOFT -- MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL UNTIL STORMS
   WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING.

August 9 Severe Weather Discussion (Featuring TornadoTrack Map)

Discussion... Slight risk for severe weather in Central/Southern Plains, and also in a large portion of the Southeast US.
CAPE in both areas will remain poorly organized, more-so in the Plains area. Maximum CAPEs in the Plains will be around the 1500-2000 j/kg marks, while portions of the Southeast could reach past 2000j/kg. The storms in the Plains will really have to hold off for much of the day in the face of the cap over the area. A cap is an atmospheric quality that is basically warm air aloft preventing thunderstorms. The cap's strength will start off past -200 units, but eventually erode into -100 units, then nosedive past -200 again later on. There will be some disorganized sections of -100 units of cap over the Southeast. -100 units isn't considered a huge cap, but -400 and below is pretty strong to 'break', or allow storms to form. The SPC has a period of tornado threat set out for the people in the slight risk area, but reviewing EHI (spinning +energy in the atmosphere) as well as the jet stream, it's really looking like the CO/NE/KS borders will have the best possibility for tornadoes today, with a lesser threat south of that region. After reviewing all sorts of wind shear (winds going in different directions at different levels) parameters, it looks like that region will be in quite a hotspot today. Storms that occur in both regions will have high PWAT, or precipitable water values. Let's say there's 2 inches of PWAT. This means, if any section of the atmosphere were compressed in one column, there would be 2 inches of water plus the rest of the atmosphere. Higher PWAT values mean heavier rain and a higher likelihood for flooding. PWAT's are high in both slight risk areas, but highest along the Florida area, where over 2.5 inches is being forecasted.
TornadoTrack Map Below.

I will be out of the office until 3:15 pm CDT today.

Notice

Ufortunately, this fall will feature periods of time that we will not be posting.
For that matter, we will construct a post the DAY BEFORE IT IS ISSUED so we can still get out information.
While it may not be accurate at the time, we will try our best to edit it.