24 Temperature Change Displays Effects of Cold Front

Latest Position of Cold Front

The cold front still stretched across the US has made for quite a cool down across portions of the country. Below we have outlined the areas that have experienced significant cooling in the last 24 hours due to the cold front.

There are two separate areas that have been experiencing an intense cool down. The first is located from the Midwest northwest into the Plains region. The second, more modest area is located in the South-central US. However, by far, the largest temperature drop has occurred in the Iowa/Minnesota area, where difference values of more than 15 degrees are common.

Winds sustained over 20mph near Denver: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/Current.aspx

6z GFS Points to Tropical Troubles Oct. 21-23; US in Impact Zone

The latest 6z GFS is indicating that a tropical system could form in the area of development above in the October 21-23 time frame. This GFS run shows the system making a NW turn, then going NE and into the Area of Impact zone. This is a long range system, so it will definitely be subject to change and we aren't entirely sure if it will happen at all. This is a heads-up.

12z GFS Depicts 3 Stronger Lows Going Thru Central/South Illinois in Eerily Similar Track- Coincidence or Pattern?

The 12z run of the GFS has brought to our attention something potentially significant. This GFS run shows 3 storms (on the stronger side) all going through Central/South Illinois over the course of 16 days. Of those 3 storms, only 2 are considered in the realm of possibility- the 3rd storm is forecast about 13 days away. 13 days away is not reliable in the least.

What does this mean?
If this 12z GFS run verifies, it very well could be a new part of the LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle). The LRC is a pattern that sets up between the October 1st period and November 10th period. This LRC is an annual occurrence and is NEVER THE SAME. While it may possess similar traits as the year before, no one pattern is ever the same. Since we are in the LRC forming timeframe, this does ultimately lead to the question: Is this going to be a pattern for the entire winter??
We will keep you updated with a post on the new 18z run that will come out shortly.

RELEASE DATE FOR FINAL 2011-2012 WINTER FORECAST

The Release Date for the FINAL edition of The Weather Centre's 2011-2012 Winter Forecast will be issued on NOVEMBER 5TH at 12:00 PM CDT.