Sunday, November 6, 2011

5.6 Magnitude Oklahoma Earthquake Felt in North Illinois

The earthquakes that recently occurred in Oklahoma were felt all the way north near Chicago! While the maximum shaking appears to have been felt right around the epicenter near Oklahoma city, there was weak to light shaking in Missouri, Illinois felt. With all the earthquake news, you might be wondering how many there were.
A total of 21 earthquakes were recorded in the last day from this general epicenter just to the east of Oklahoma City. Aftershocks will likely continue for a few days but taper off and eventually stop (unless another big earthquake hits) within a week.

2/3 of Texas under Exceptional Drought Classification; Rain may come Tonight

Just under two thirds of Texas is under the exceptional category of drought conditions as of November 1st. It is important to note that not one area of Texas is not in a drought category.
The good news is that the 12z RUC from today is forecasting rain to occur in the Texas region, affecting some portions of the exceptionally dry areas.
This afternoon

This evening
This will not end the drought, but may be a good, very small first step out of this exceptional drought category.

Cloud Pattern over Illinois Indicates Windy Conditions to come

The cloud pattern over Illinois and Wisconsin is indicating that a windy period for the area will be present soon or now. Observations are indicating that windy conditions are occurring in Illinois, Wisconsin. Lake Michigan is encountering winds over 48 knots near the center of Lake Michigan, making for a dangerous day to go boating. On land, wind speeds range from 5 knots to 20 knots around this cloud pattern.
Current Wind Observations (Not real-time updating)
Another indicator that windy conditions are occurring are the tight isobars over the region. When isobars (black lines on the image below) are close together, it indicates windy conditions. When they are disorganized, it means winds are light or calm. A strong low pressure system, like the one that just moved into Canada from the Dakotas, can create tight isobars. Below is current surface analysis at the time of publishing.

Saturday, November 5, 2011

Snow Possible for Midwest as per New 0z NAM

1 am November 9th
7 am November 9th
The above two images are the forecast from the new 0z NAM on the prospect of 'categorical snow'. That is, snow is possible for the area outlined. It appears that Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin are in the possible line for snow. However, the period of snow that the NAM was forecasted for the 84th hour about a week ago did not verify, so we are investigating the chance that the end of the NAM may have a cold bias, which means that the NAM may be tilted towards colder temperatures than what will actually happen.

Strong Storm System Moving North into the Dakotas

A strong storm system is moving north into the Dakotas region. We can see the main part of the storm is focused in Nebraska, while fronts and analysis on the bottom shows the energy combined into two lows from Colorado to South Dakota. At this time, the precipitation is in rain form for western Nebraska, which can be seen as a gray swath just to the west of the main circulation of the low.
As we progress into the night and temperatures fall, it is possible that this precipitation will turn to snow. As of right now, a sharp temperature gradient is preventing this snow from falling and is instead falling as rain, with some slight mixing out on the west Nebraska border closer to the temperature gradient.