January 19-22 Major Snow Event (Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast Affected)

We are projecting a clipper system to come down from Canada and put down potentially significant snows, as well as some icy conditions.
The clipper will be coming down quickly, so the system in itself will be a quick one-two punch before moving out. However, despite its quickness, the system will be able to put down potentially over 6 inches in some spots. The map says isolated 10-14 inches, but this was biased off of the 12z GFS as the ECMWF is dramatically different. We like to stick with trends.
What is clear, however, is the chance for ice. We have inserted the potential for a tenth of an inch of ice in Central Ohio, Central Indiana and North Illinois. We have low confidence in ice amounts, so this is a general 'first step' for the ice forecasts.

This system will be sampled thursday into friday, meaning that will be the first time that the models have actual upper air data to work with, therefore improving their accuracy of their forecasts, as well as ours.

**Something that may happen is the potential for phasing of this clipper and another system coming from the south. If this is to happen, we may see drastically different results than this map. We will keep a close eye on this situation**

By the way, this is the introduction of our new winter weather accumulation forecast map.

EDIT: We looked back and found the ECMWF to have similar snowfalls as depicted on our graphic. Sorry for the wrong information.

Tornado Warning for Louisville, KY

Take Cover Now-- Tornado Warning for Louisville, Kentucky

TORNADO WARNING
INC019-043-061-KYC111-185-171630-
/O.NEW.KLMK.TO.W.0002.120117T1554Z-120117T1630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1054 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LOUISVILLE...
WESTERN OLDHAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1130 AM EST...

* AT 1049 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BYRNEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
ST. MATTHEWS...
PROSPECT...
LYNDON...
ANCHORAGE...
MIDDLETOWN...
SAINT JOSEPH...
OAK PARK AND CLARKSVILLE...
UTICA AND RIVER BLUFF...
ORCHARD GRASS HILLS AND BROWNSBORO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO
THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3830 8544 3830 8545 3829 8546 3827 8544
3821 8544 3823 8605 3837 8609 3847 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 1553Z 264DEG 54KT 3830 8596

$$

EER

Pattern Change Update 1/16/12

I've about had enough with these models predicting the warmth to continue- even if they may be right.
I think it's time we issue a forecast using our own instinct, not using the long range models as a crutch.

FEBRUARY---

February will see colder shots enter the country with spots of snow frequently interrupting. As the polar vortex becomes more and more unstable, as shown by the not-fully connected vortex as well as erratic PV (potential vorticity) movements. I can very well see snowstorms come though the East US- it's a favorable outcome based on the weakening Nina, unstable VP (polar vortex)/PV, and the Alaskan vortex. It is currently displaced, thus the active storm track. But it is a very encouraging sign to see it be able to be displaced.

MARCH---

March will be THE cold month for spring. At this point, the atmosphere will have to go ballistic. With the stratosphere in cahoots, the VP/PV all unorganized, the La Nina possibly fading into neutral or El Nino conditions, an atmospheric coup into spring will throw off everything. I'm expecting a VERY active storm track, with severe weather abound as this huge mash of messed up indices tries to figure itself out. The mountains will see their snowfall when the Pacific gets ramped up in the midst of this big jumble.

For both February and March, i am using 2 pieces I have come to wonder if they can be related to weather:
I. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction.
II. Everything attempts to reach equilibrium.

Using these two theories and applying them to weather would make for a revolutionary change in FEB/MAR. But that would be if everything is unequal. Climatology has nothing on the Pacific and Arctic. You may think this winter has not been equal (climatologically, yes), but up in the stratosphere and in Alaska, factors have been working and have attained a level of equilibrium that just so happened to be favorable for warm temperatures. If we can get a stratospheric warming or a permanent displacement of the Alaskan Low, I might as well batten down the hatches, because the snow will come and make itself known in that scenario.

So there you have it- my forecast for the rest of winter, totally unassisted by weather models.

Abbreviations Used

VP- Polar Vortex
PV- Potential Vorticity
WSW- Winter Storm Watch
WWA- Winter Weather Advisory
WX- Weather
NWS- National Weather Service
SPC- Storm Prediction Center
HPC- Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
NHC- National Hurricane Center
WFO- Weather Forecasting Office

Special Pattern Change Update Coming out at 5:00 PM CST

COMPLETELY unassisted by computer models.
This is the forecast i'm sticking to.