Stratospheric Warming Update Today

We will update at 4:00 PM CST on the recent stratospheric cooling and possible warming.

CFS Weekly Forecasts- 1/26/12

Weeks 3 and 4 (top to bottom) 500mb height forecasts 

The latest CFS v2 weekly forecasts are showing  very interesting scenario developing in the next 3-4 weeks. Before I go further, remember that this is very long range and therefore will most certainly change, possibly drastically.
We will focus on week 4 (bottom image). In the last days of February, we are seeing a -NAO and a ridge over Alaska. The -NAO is characterized by a strong ridge right near Greenland (the gray/beige color embedded in the dark red). At this time, the NAO looks to be west based, which is not the most ideal conditions for a snowstorm, but still a starting point considering the lack of -NAO days this winter.
There is also a ridge forecasted to be in Alaska. This ridge has only been observed a couple times at most this winter, and in the times it was observed we saw some cold and snow. I would not be surprised to see a big snowstorm for the Northeast in the last week of February if this verifies, as the combination of a -NAO/Alaskan Ridge end up with a trough in place offshore the Northeast (the green region).

Again, this is all very uncertain, but it could be a step in the right direction.

Note

Just something I posted on my Facebook page for y'all to think over...

For those thinking my latest winter update was just for kicks, go ahead and think that. But here's the plain fact- a pattern change of sorts has already happened, shown by the falling GLAAM/NAO/AO, rising PNA, weak polar vortex and unstable potential vorticity, sudden stratospheric warmings, and more cold and snow than December. The question is if this pattern change will continue to come together, which is still in debate.

The reason I have not told you is because the details on if the pattern had changed were still being worked out. 

Why the Models are So Bad-- And What the Rest of Winter Holds in Store

For all the avid meteorologists out there, we all know the models have been horrible this winter. The thing we don't know is why. I believe I have an answer for you.
A common piece of knowledge is that change takes time to process. The same goes for computer models. What they may be indicating is an upcoming pattern change, and are thus having a difficult time forecasting. Or it could just be a bad model winter. But i'm having a gut feeling that the latter option is more unlikely.

So what does the rest of winter hold in store? Well, let's take a look overseas first.

First 8 days of GFS Forecast temperature anomaly

Last 8 days of GFS Forecast temperature anomaly

What I have found over the years is that weather in Europe is similarly reciprocated in the US a short time after. Looking at the 16 day forecast temperature anomalies produced by the GFS, the model is forecasting Europe to go into a freeze of sorts, with widespread anomalies of -5 degrees or more.
So what does temperatures in Europe have to do with our weather? As explained above, Europe weather can be reciprocated into our weather. If that holds true, I believe our pattern change is a short time away, which would also spell the model's inconsistency problems out.

CMC AO Forecast

I am using the CMC as a forecast because, as you see, it has much less flawed runs against verification than other models do. That is, there are less gray lines (past forecasts) leading far away from the verification, thus increasing my confidence in the forecast. Recently, the Arctic Oscillation has been negative- a sign of the changing atmosphere. The stratosphere and associated polar vortex have taken big hits recently and are staggering around, barely able to be held up on their own. If we can get one more good SSW (sudden stratospheric warming), I believe this cold will be forced to come south very quickly as the polar vortex breaks. The negative AO also supports cold air in the US, which could be the reciprocation of the cold Europe land mass.

CMC NAO Forecast

I am using the CMC for the same reasons i used the CMC for the AO, and those reasons are mentioned above. The CMC tells that the NAO is negative and should continue to be that way for a while. I find that the NAO and AO are very closely related, and thus it is possible for both to go negative simultaneously. That appears to have happened in this scenario. These AO and NAO are only short range forecasts, and while they appear to not contribute to the rest of winter forecast, they do. We have seen less strong positive days and more negative days of the AO and NAO this month than last- a sign that the pattern regime holding in the warmth and holding out the cold is weakening.

My thoughts
I'm still thinking a change to more snow and cold is in the cards. I find it way too early to throw in the towel on this winter, especially with these latest AO, NAO, Temp. Anomaly forecasts and data presented here today. I think it is still possible a good Nor'easter will come around. When it does, it could be "major". As for the storm track, the jet stream should shift at least slightly south, bringing Chicago, Des Moines, Detroit into possible target zones for snowstorms.

If you have any questions please ask below.

Tornado Warning- Alexandria, Louisiana

876 

WFUS54 KHGX 251243

TORHGX

TXC051-477-251315-

/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0009.120125T1243Z-120125T1315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

643 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

  NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 AM CST

* AT 637 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO   

  WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF LAKE SOMERVILLE DAM... MOVING   

  NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THERE IS A SECOND POSSIBLE TORNADO LOCATED 5 MILES 

  SOUTHWEST OF CALDWELL.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

  SOMERVILLE AND CALDWELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR

A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE

BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM

IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST

RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR

HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CST FOR THE WARNED AREA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...

OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3066 9665 3034 9630 3014 9673 3019 9676

      3020 9675 3024 9675 3025 9673 3026 9669

      3029 9666 3031 9669 3031 9674 3039 9680

TIME...MOT...LOC 1241Z 229DEG 45KT 3030 9669

$$